The fields for the 14 races that comprise the Breeders’ Cup World Championships really begin to come into focus in summer and fall. This regular feature will offer a snapshot profile of one of the previous weekend’s standout stars, usually a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series winner, and whether I’m buying or selling their chances to win Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.

Let’s take a closer look this week at Carl Spackler, winner of the $500,000 FanDuel Fourstardave Handicap Aug. 11 at Saratoga Race Course to earn an expenses-paid berth in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF.

Accomplishments: Carl Spackler looked a bit overmatched in his stakes debut in May 2023 in the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes Presented by BMW on the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve undercard. Since that eighth-place finish, he’s emerged as a beast on the turf. No, the colt named after the unforgettable greenskeeper character played by Bill Murray in “Caddyshack” is not destroying sod in search of destructive gophers, instead he’s imposing his will on the turf male division in U.S. Thoroughbred racing.

Carl Spackler has five wins in six subsequent starts, all in stakes races, with a 3-for-4 record in 2024 for top turf trainer Chad Brown. The 4-year-old Lope de Vega colt made short work of five opponents to win the Fourstardave by 3 ½ lengths and secure the first Grade 1 win of his career.

He also won a pair of graded stakes last summer at Saratoga and prepped for the Fourstardave with a half-length win in the Grade 3 Kelso Stakes at Saratoga July 13.

His lone defeat in six tries since that stakes debut in the 2023 American Turf was a fifth-place finish on this year’s Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets undercard in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes.

Carl Spackler is 5-for-6 at one mile on turf and has victories at that distance at Gulfstream Park, Churchill Downs, and Saratoga.

Most importantly, Carl Spackler has the tactical speed to track within couple of lengths of the pace and still finish powerfully as evidenced by his final quarter-mile in :22.38 in the Kelso and :22.83 in the Fourstardave after racing in second in both races. That type of finishing kick is essential to be competitive in the Breeders’ Cup Mile against top European invaders, who have won four straight editions of that race and five of the last six.

Speed Figures: Carl Spackler earned a career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure for his Kelso Stakes victory in July and duplicated that number in the Fourstardave. His Beyer Speed Figure for the Fourstardave was a new six-point career top of 104, improving upon a 98 he had earned three times previously, most recently in the aforementioned Kelso.

The winning Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Mile has ranged from a 115 to a 128 in the last 10 editions while the Beyer range has been 101 to 110, so Carl Spackler would most likely need to take a small-to-moderate step forward to be a prime win candidate.

Looking Ahead: It takes a special U.S.-based turf miler to best the Europeans in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Pacesetters historically are at a disadvantage in the race, but certainly a stalker that pairs tactical speed with elite finishing ability, like Carl Spackler, fits the mold. I believe he will need to continue to improve – not a ton, but an incremental step forward – to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but he looks like the best of the U.S. runners right now for an elite stateside turf trainer.

“I have the horse in a good rhythm now to sort of do what I want with him. You go to a race like the Breeders’ Cup Mile, I’ve had some success in that race, you really got to go in there ready,” said Brown, who won the Mile in 2019 with the mare Uni. “I don’t know if a long layoff would be the right thing, so I will look for a race for him.”

I’m definitely buying Carl Spackler for a top-three finish in the race, but international stars have proved tough to beat, especially those from the barn of Charles Appleby, who has won the last three editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile.