Welcome to 2024 Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule that offer qualifying points for the first leg in the series. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve will be held May 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a closer look at Encino, a one-length winner of the $150,000 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes on March 2 at Turfway Park. The Nyquist colt earned 20 points toward qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby with that win and currently is in 18^th place on the latest Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard after winning his stakes debut.

Racing Résumé: All three of Encino’s races to date have been quality efforts.

He got off to a brutal start in his career debut Dec. 29 at Turfway Park, where it looked like he hopped a bit and was the last of 13 horses to leave the starting gate. The Nyquist colt made a powerful move on the final turn to surge into contention but flattened out slightly and came up a neck short of front-running winner Stingy.

Encino then led from start to finish going 1 1/16 miles Jan. 26 at Turfway in a half-length win as the odds-on favorite. He rallied from a few lengths off the pace in the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial Stakes in his stakes debut and finished determinedly to defeat 6-5 favorite Epic Ride by a length.

Despite tracking fairly close to a reasonable pace for the all-weather Tapeta Footings surface – opening quarter-mile in :23.84 and a half-mile in :48.31 – Encino finished with a final five-sixteenths of a mile in an estimated :30.99 and a final sixteenth of a mile in 5.98 seconds.

Encino was moving very well late in the Battaglia.

He’s a talented racehorse who has brought a quality effort every time he’s stepped into the starting gate for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Axel Concepcion.

“He relaxed very well down the backside, and around the far turn I was able to ask him for his best run. I had a lot of horse still left down the lane and he continued to run hard all the way to the wire,” Concepcion said. “It’s exciting riding a horse like this in a race like the Battaglia. It’s on the Road to the Kentucky Derby so it means a lot.”

The elephant in the room with regard to his résumé, of course, is that he has made all three of his starts on an all-weather surface and has yet to compete in a race on dirt. It looms the key question when evaluating his chances to be a bona-fide Kentucky Derby contender.

Speed Figures: Encino registered career-best Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures for his John Battaglia Memorial Stakes victory and has improved, according to both figure makers, in each race. Equibase has him steadily rising from an 81 for his debut to a 91 for his maiden win to a 100 for the Battaglia. His Beyer line of 65-68-89 features a 21-point jump for the Battaglia. His numbers are good but not great so far, but in a year in which dazzling performances have been essentially nonexistent on the Derby trail, Encino looks like a real player on paper.

Running Style: While Encino does boast a front-running victory in his past-performance line, I expect him to settle in as a stalker-closer type as he was in the John Battaglia Memorial. He has enough tactical speed to stay withing striking distance of the pace, so he is no one-run, deep closer by any stretch. But especially if/when he makes the transition from an all-weather surface to dirt, I expect him to be an off-the-pace runner capable of identifying and reeling in a target.

Connections: Encino is a homebred of global Thoroughbred racing-breeding powerhouse Godolphin, the operation of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the vice president and prime minister of the United Arab Emirates and ruler of Dubai. Sheikh Mohammed has been involved in Thoroughbred racing since 1977. There has been no entity in U.S. racing more powerful than Godolphin stable in recent years as Godolphin swept the last four Eclipse Awards as outstanding owner (2020-2023) and the last three as outstanding breeder (2021-2023). Godolphin, combined with Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley Stable banner, boasts seven total Eclipse Awards as outstanding owner and four as top breeder. Last year, Godolphin’s stateside success was led by Horse of the Year and champion older male Cody’s Wish.

Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley operation won the Preakness in 2006 with Bernardini and Godolphin netted a classic win in the 2021 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets with Essential Quality. The Kentucky Derby is one of the few races Sheikh Mohammed has yet to win.

Heading to the winner’s circle. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Trainer Brad Cox won the Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer in 2020 and 2021 and led all trainers in North America by purse earnings in 2023 with $30,947,677. Cox won the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun following the disqualification of Medina Spirit and also won the 2021 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets with Essential Quality.

Axel Concepcion, the 2023 Eclipse Award winner as outstanding apprentice jockey, has ridden Encino in each of his three races. Since taking out his jockey’s license in 2023, Concepcion has won three stakes races and is seeking his first victory in a graded stakes.

Pedigree Notes: Encino is from the fourth crop of Nyquist, the 2015 champion 2-year-old male and 2016 Kentucky Derby winner. Nyquist, by Uncle Mo, is the sire of champion Vequist, Canadian champion Gretzky the Great, and Grade 1 winners Randomized and Slow Down Andy – all four Grade 1 winners in races at a mile or longer. Nyquist has 12 graded stakes winners and 24 stakes winners from 320 starters through March 13.

Encino was produced by Glittering Jewel, a winner at 1 3/16 miles by 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini. Glittering Jewel also is a half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2006 champion 2-year-old male Street Sense, who like the aforementioned Nyquist went on to win the Kentucky Derby. All in all, a nice combination of class and stamina.

Derby Potential: The big question with Encino is can he make a successful transition from the all-weather surface at Turfway Park to dirt racing at Churchill Downs. His pedigree shows quite a few elite dirt runners that would seem to indicate, based on breeding, Encino should handle dirt. Rich Strike came out of Turfway prep races to shock the world at 80.80-1 in the 2022 Kentucky Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Two Phil’s ran second in last year’s Kentucky Derby, so it’s no longer just 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom to offer as evidence when looking for examples of past success stories via Turfway in the Derby. However, I must admit that Encino’s stride on the Turfway main track looks, to my eye, more like a typical turf runner. That’s not to say he can’t make the transition, but if he qualifies for the Derby, I will be watching closely how he handles the main track at Churchill for morning exercise and workouts.

Outside of the surface question, which is a significant one, Encino ticks a lot of boxes in what you’d like to see from a Derby candidate. He comes from a top owner-breeder with a big pedigree. He’s is handled by an elite trainer in Brad Cox and brings his best in every race. Encino is trending on an upward trajectory in terms of speed figures, and he’s has shown the tactical speed to win from on or off the pace.