Welcome to 2024 Triple Crown Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the U.S. Classics trail, with the focus this week on the upcoming 156^th running of the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets June 8 at Saratoga Race Course.

The field for the 1 ¼-mile Belmont Stakes is expected to include multiple runners who participated in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 4 at Churchill Downs, including winner Mystik Dan and runner-up Sierra Leone, along with Preakness winner Seize the Grey.

One of the “new shooters” slated to make his 2024 Triple Crown debut is Antiquarian. This week we’ll take a closer look at the three-quarter-length winner of the $200,000, Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes May 11 at the Belmont at the Big A meeting.

Racing Résumé: Last year’s Peter Pan Stakes winner, Arcangelo, was a lightly raced colt who went on to win the Belmont Stakes en route to champion 3-year-old male honors. Can history repeat with 2024 Peter Pan winner Antiquarian on June 8? There are similarities between the two talented horses.

Both Arcangelo and Antiquarian made their fourth start in the Peter Pan, emerged victorious after a stretch battle, and earned promising speed figures for their first stakes win. Like Ancangelo, Antiquarian looks like a late-blooming Belmont Stakes contender.

He led in the stretch before finishing second by a half-length in his career debut going a mile Jan. 13, 2024, at Gulfstream Park, and then Antiquarian pressed the pace on a sloppy track Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds and won a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race by a length in start number two.

Trainer Todd Pletcher next tested him on the Triple Crown trail in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, a challenging spot for his first race outside of maiden (non-winners) competition. He broke through the starting gate before the race that day but was caught by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez before he could run off. The rider was hobbled a bit from the incident but they reloaded after Antiquarian passed a veterinary inspection.

All things considered, Antiquarian ran fairly well in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. He stalked the pace and was wide on the far turn when he launched a nice move before flattening out in a sixth-place finish. Antiquarian was beaten by four lengths by winner Catching Freedom, who subsequently ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby and was third May 18 in the Preakness Stakes.

Any number of factors could have contributed to the Louisiana Derby unplaced finish – the starting gate mishap, the massive jump in level of competition, the wide trip, stretching out in distance – but it served as a nice building block for the Peter Pan.

Antiquarian settled into a nice rhythm under Velazquez in third early behind pacesetter Unique Insight in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan. He was again wide throughout but this time when called upon for his best, Antiquarian had fuel in the tank and put away 6-5 favorite The Wine Steward to win by three-quarters of a length with a final eighth of a mile in :12.60.

The final furlong indicates he can track a solid pace and still finish well and he should have a stronger foundation heading into the 1 ¼-mile Belmont Stakes compared with his fitness level before the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby.

Speed Figures: Antiquarian has improved in terms of Equibase Speed Figures with each race, from a 74 in his debut to a 101 Equibase Speed Figure for the Peter Pan win. In each start, he improved from eight to 10 points. Likewise, Antiquarian has improved his Beyer Speed Figure in each of his last three races from an 80 in his maiden win to a 92 in the Louisiana Derby to a 100 in the Peter Pan.

Perhaps most promising, Antiquarian earned a 7 on the Ragozin Sheets (lower is better) for the Peter Pan, which is a terrific figure for his fourth start and indicates he is absolutely fast enough to be a major factor in the Belmont Stakes.

Running Style: Antiquarian has rated just in behind the pacesetter in three of his four starts, and the only time he employed different tactics he rallied from sixth in the Louisiana Derby. My expectation would be that Antiquarian would attempt to use his tactical speed to gain position just in behind the pacesetters in the Belmont Stakes and get the jump on closers like Sierra Leone.

Connections: Antiquarian is raced by Centennial Farms, a racing operation founded by Donald Little in 1982 and now run by his son, Don Little Jr. Over 42 years, Centennial partnerships have amassed purse earnings of more than $26 million with standouts such as 1993 Belmont Stakes winner Colonial Affair, champion sprinter Rubiano, and 2014 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Wicked Strong. Another of Centennial’s top performers, Preservationist, is the sire of Antiquarian.

Donald Little Jr., John Velazquez and Antiquarian. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher trains Antiquarian and also has Belmont Stakes hopeful Fierceness, last year’s champion 2-year-old male and the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa winner. An eight-time Eclipse Award winner as outstanding trainer, Pletcher has won the Belmont Stakes four times with Rags to Riches (2007), Palace Malice (2013), Tapwrit (2017), and Mo Donegal (2022) and the Kentucky Derby twice with Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017). Pletcher also has eight runner-up finishes in the Belmont Stakes.

Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez has been aboard Antiquarian for each of his four races, but he also is the regular rider for Fierceness, so Centennial and Pletcher will most likely need to find a new rider for the Belmont Stakes.

Pedigree Notes: Antiquarian is from the first crop of Preservationist, who won the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes and Grade 1 Woodward Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets in 2019 for Centennial Farms. He amassed six wins in 11 races and earned $1,084,550.

Antiquarian was produced by the winning Istan mare Lifetime Memory, whose lone win in three starts came in her career debut at 6 ½ furlongs. Lifetime Memory is a half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to Grade 2 winner Speaktomeofsummer and stakes winner Proud Reunion. Antiquarian’s grandam (maternal grandmother), Silver Reunion, and third dam (maternal great-grandmother), Silver Comic, both were graded stakes winners.

Belmont Stakes Potential: I have not been blown away by this crop of 3-year-olds. The only truly fast member of the crop so far has been Fierceness, but he’s been extremely inconsistent. If things go Fierceness’s way in the Belmont Stakes, he could be tough to beat but I have my doubts about him at 1 ¼ miles. That leaves the door open for an improving 3-year-old like his stablemate Antiquarian.

In re-watching his races, I like the way he’s progressed mentally and physically and he’s on the ideal upward trajectory without having dealt with any of the pressures of either of the first two Triple Crown races. The race is still almost two weeks away, but there is a very good chance Antiquarian takes a big step forward in the Belmont Stakes and right now he’s my pick to win the final jewel of the 2024 Triple Crown.