NBC Sports Analyst Randy Moss Evaluates the 2023 Kentucky Derby Field

Racing
Kentucky Derby Randy Moss Triple Crown NBC Churchill Downs
NBC Sports analyst Randy Moss offers his insights into what he has seen on the road up to the 2023 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and what he expects in the first jewel of the Triple Crown. (NBC Sports photo/Eclipse Sportswire)

NBC Sports will provide extensive coverage of the 149th Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve. The broadcast will run from noon to 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, May 6 on NBC.

The Longines Kentucky Oaks, the nation’s premier race for 3-year-old fillies, will be broadcast by NBC Sports on USA Network as part of a show that extends from 1-6 p.m. ET on Friday. Fans also may follow the action on both days on NBCSports.com, the NBC Sports app and Peacock.

PLEASE NOTE: A flurry of late scratches including champion Forte, Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move and third-place finisher SkinnerWood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino winner Lord Miles, and UAE Derby Sponsored by Atlantis the Royal third-place finisher Continuar dramatically changed the complexion of the Derby field in the last 72 hours before the race.

NBC will again rely heavily on expert analysis from Randy Moss. He examined many aspects of the Derby during an extensive question-and-answer session conducted on behalf of America’s Best Racing.


PEDULLA: How do you evaluate Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move (NOTE: Practical Move was scratched from the race May 4 because of a fever )?

MOSS: I have to evaluate Practical Move in the same way that handicappers have to evaluate every Derby horse – with an extremely critical eye. These horses are so good and you can’t like them all. You try to look for reasons to be skeptical. With Practical Move, he’s tremendously talented. He has tactical speed. He is the only horse in the race with back-to-back triple-digit Beyer speed figures. But he was the beneficiary of absolute dream trips in the Santa Anita Derby and the San Felipe. The odds would say he is unlikely to get another at Churchill Downs. His sire, Practical Joke, has questions about the mile and a quarter. He drifted toward the end of the Santa Anita Derby, which is a potential red flag about a mile and a quarter.

PEDULLA: Can Mage overcome his inexperience?

MOSS: He’s had three starts and in all three races he’s had problems getting away from the gate. That doesn’t mean it will happen again in the Kentucky Derby, but to me it is a big problem. He’s tremendously talented and if he breaks well in the Derby, he may actually set the pace. But, if he doesn’t, in a 20-horse field it’s big trouble.

PEDULLA: With Skinner (NOTE: Skinner also was scratched from the race May 5 because of a fever ) getting the defections he needed to join the field, is he a threat?

MOSS: He ran arguably the best race of any horse in the Santa Anita Derby (in finishing third) when you factor in ground lost around the turns. He is showing improvement in every race. But the bone to pick about Skinner is he’s a grinding type of horse that doesn’t seem to have the type of quick acceleration and responsiveness that come-from-behinders need in a big field to enable their jockeys to hit the holes that open up during the race. Also, Victor Espinoza has ridden Skinner as if the rail was radioactive. I don’t think Skinner is so good that he can go four- or five-wide on both turns and still win.

PEDULLA: Kingsbarns is undefeated through three starts, but how much value can you attach to a slow Louisiana Derby?

MOSS: This is another one of those quandaries that horseplayers find themselves in in a modern Kentucky Derby era. Horses run so infrequently today that we are all left to guess about some of the strengths and weaknesses of these horses as are their trainers, jockeys and owners. Kingsbarns is a perfect 3 for 3. He has overcome adversity from slightly off the pace before, but in the Louisiana Derby he was absolutely gifted the lead and very slow fractions. It was the absolute best scenario that could have been drawn up for him. Does that mean he can’t win the Kentucky Derby with a stalking trip? No. But you have to look for ways to separate these horses. Since Kingsbarns has never run that fast before, you have to have at least some skepticism.

Confidence Game (Eclipse Sportswire)

PEDULLA: Confidence Game has not run since he won the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes. Does that concern you?

MOSS: The layoff doesn’t concern me as much as the relative strength of the Rebel field in hindsight. The horse that Confidence Game beat that day, Red Route One, came back and was pretty much a non-factor in the Arkansas Derby. Before the Rebel, Confidence Game was pretty well beaten by Instant Coffee and Two Phil’s in the Lecomte. So it’s not the layoff that bothers me. It’s the general question of his talent level.

PEDULLA: Obviously, Two Phil’s loves a synthetic surface. How good is he on dirt?

MOSS: He’s run some strong races on dirt. I loved his win at Churchill Downs on a sloppy track in the Street Sense in October. On the basis of that, I expected him to win one or more of the Fair Grounds preps. He didn’t. He still ran reasonably well in the Lecomte and the Risen Star. But, yes, he took his game to another level in the Jeff Ruby. The question then becomes, ‘Was that the result of 3-year-old maturity and improvement or more the result of his first start ever on a synthetic surface?’ Since his sire, Hard Spun, won the same race on synthetics, and since his maternal grandsire General Quarters won the Blue Grass on synthetic, I would have to lean toward the latter. But I think Two Phil’s is a nice horse and it wouldn’t shock me if he won the Derby.

PEDULLA: Is this the year a Japan-based horse wins the Kentucky Derby?

MOSS: Very possibly. Derma Sotogake’s UAE Derby win was the fastest and visually the most impressive of the Derby preps. As we all know, Japanese horses are dominating internationally wherever they go – Dubai, Saudi Arabia, the Breeders’ Cup two years ago. It’s probably a matter of time before a Japanese horse wins the Derby and this horse has legitimate credentials. I think Derma Sotogake is a major, major player and he’s only helped by the dropout of Wild On Ice, who was expected, at least by my handicapping, to be the primary pace rival.

PEDULLA: Does Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire represent trainer Brad Cox’s best hope?

MOSS: I have tremendous difficulty separating Angel of Empire and Verifying. As a matter of fact, with the relative lack of pace in this year’s Derby, I would lean toward Verifying in that matchup.

PEDULLA: Tapit Trice has a penchant for slow starts. Can he overcome that?

MOSS: Tapit Trice is probably the most talented horse in the Kentucky Derby field. If you factor in ground loss, his Blue Grass was right behind Derma Sotogake’s UAE Derby in terms of quality victories. But Tapit Trice’s problems in the Kentucky Derby are threefold. Number one is slow starts from the gate. Number two is his lack of acceleration during the middle part of the race. Tapit Trice also seems to be unable to hit the holes as the opportunity arises. If I could get down on him now, I would bet on him to win the Belmont Stakes. But the Kentucky Derby might not be the right race for him at this time.

PEDULLA: Do you see any vulnerability in Derby favorite Forte (NOTE: Forte was scratched from the race May 6) ?

MOSS: The primary vulnerability that I see in Forte is that in speed figures he has not progressed since his 2-year-old season. Over the years, handicappers have talked about the difficulty that Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners and 2-year-old champions have in going on to win the Kentucky Derby primarily because they tend to be precocious, early-maturing type horses who don’t necessarily improve in their 3-year-old seasons. He is the most reliable, the most dependable, the most consistent of any of the 3-year-olds and I think he is a deserving Derby favorite. But certainly he is not the type of Kentucky Derby favorite that you couldn’t take a swing against.

PEDULLA: How about a live longshot?

MOSS: To me, the most live longshot in the race is Verifying. I’m assuming he’s going to be 10-1, 12-1 since there are so many other horses people can bet on that have a legitimate chance. Verifying did have a beautiful trip in the Blue Grass, stalking a relatively moderate pace. He showed a lot of determination when Tapit Trice ran up to him. He ran a fast race by the numbers. He’s probably going to get a similar trip in the Derby based on the relative lack of speed on paper. He has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter. There is a lot to like about Verifying, especially at a price.

PEDULLA: Understanding that things can change as Derby week unfolds, may I ask you for your top four?

MOSS: With the caveat that post position could play some role in what the picks might be – even though I think post position tends to be overrated – I would say Derma Sotogake, Verifying, Angel of Empire and Forte.

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