Anticipation is building for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup World Championships. The top horses in the country will take center stage at Del Mar on Nov. 5-6 to determine the best of the best.

The Breeders’ Cup races are very valuable in their own right, but they also carry a lot of weight when it comes to the year-end Eclipse Awards. Horses who win their division’s Breeders’ Cup race often go on to be crowned champion in that division. The most prestigious Breeders’ Cup race, the Longines Classic, often has a major impact on which horse wins Horse of the Year, which is the MVP of sorts for horse racing.

This year, several horses enter the Breeders’ Cup with a chance to win Horse of the Year. The two most prominent will both race in the Classic, and both are trained by Brad Cox. Essential Quality has been the most dominant 3-year-old so far. He’s won five graded stakes races this year, including the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets and the Runhappy Travers Stakes. He’s bidding to become the first horse to win the Belmont, the Travers, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the same year.

Knicks Go, a 5-year-old horse, has won two Grade 1 races this year. He won the Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January and the Whitney Stakes in August. He also won the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap and the Lukas Classic Stakes, both Grade 3 events. Both of these horses are in “win-and-in” mode going into the Classic. If either of them win, they’ll be Horse of the Year.

Letruska (Eclipse Sportswire)

If they both lose, on the other hand, things start getting interesting. The most likely Horse of the Year candidate besides the big two may not be in the Classic, but rather in the Longines Distaff. Letruska has dominated her division this year, posting six graded stakes wins, including four Grade 1s, the most of any horse in the country.

Since the inception of the modern Eclipse Awards in 1971, six female horses have won Horse of the Year, the most recent of which was Havre de Grace in 2011. For a filly or mare to win Horse of the Year, two things generally need to happen: the female in question needs to have an outstanding campaign, and there also has to be no standout in the older male division. Even if Letruska wins the Distaff, she’ll need both Essential Quality and Knicks Go to lose the Classic to have a serious Horse of the Year chance. Still, a Distaff win keeps her hopes alive. The Distaff will be held at approximately 7 p.m. ET, about 100 minutes before the Classic, so Letruska will be the clubhouse leader for Horse of the Year for a while if she wins the Distaff.

If she doesn’t win the Distaff and Knicks Go and Essential Quality both come up short in the Classic, a few other Classic contenders could receive Horse of the Year consideration with a win. They include: Medina Spirit, who won the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and the Awesome Again Stakes; Hot Rod Charlie, winner of the Pennsylvania Derby; Max Player, victorious in the Suburban Stakes and the Jockey Club Gold Cup; and Art Collector, who has won three stakes races in a row, most recently the Woodward Stakes. All four would very likely clinch a divisional crown as either the Eclipse Award champion 3-year-old male (Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie) or champion older dirt male (Max Player and Art Collector) with a Classic win. However, with the possible exception of Medina Spirit, it’s not clear if any of them would win Horse of the Year if they and Letruska both win. They’re going to have to count on a Distaff upset to keep their Horse of the Year hopes alive.

If there’s a big upset in the Distaff and Classic, there are not many horses from other divisions with a serious case. Domestic Spending, the country’s top grass horse, will be one of the favorites in the Longines Turf. He’s only won two other stakes races this year, however. Jackie’s Warrior has been brilliantly fast this year, and may be the odds-on favorite in the Qatar Racing Sprint. Sprinters rarely get Horse of the Year consideration, and no sprinter has won Horse of the Year. Essential Quality, with his three Grade 1 victories, may end up winning the award by default should this scenario happen, even if he loses the Classic.

Heading into this year’s Breeders’ Cup, Essential Quality and Knicks Go are squarely in the driver’s seat for Horse of the Year. They control their destiny in the Classic. If they slip up, the door is open for someone else to slide in.