The path to the 2017 Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Del Mar on Nov. 3-4 is a road with plenty of ups and downs as talented racehorses vie for a spot in one of 13 championship races.

This blog provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and three horses whose Breeders’ Cup chances are not quite as strong as they were a week ago.

HEATING UP

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1. Collected

I’m fully on the Collected bandwagon (for more details, read this week’s Getting to Know blog). I had my concerns about his ability to thrive going 1 ¼ miles, but he was able to fend off a late rally from champion Arrogate in the stretch of the TVG Pacific Classic Stakes on Aug 19. The chestnut colt by City Zip has won eight of 11 career starts, but two of his three defeats came on off (wet or muddy) tracks and the other was on grass. He’s unbeaten in seven starts of a fast, dirt main track, and he was really unchallenged in three previous races this season until the Pacific Classic. With Equibase Speed Figures of 125 and 126 in his last two starts, he’s plenty fast. He’s the rare Thoroughbred blessed with dazzling speed plus the ability to carry it a long way, plus he clearly likes the main track at Del Mar, which will host the Breeders’ Cup in November. He earned an automatic spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic via the “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series and he should be one of the favorites.

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2. Blackjackcat

He seems to have really settled in and found his niche as a turf miler for Mark Glatt with three straight wins at the distance. He looked really comfortable on the Del Mar turf course in winning the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile Handicap on Aug. 20 and the 120 Equibase Speed Figure indicates he’s a legitimate contender. The Breeders’ Cup Mile is always a tough race, but with a 3-for-5 record on the grass at Del Mar, tactical speed to stay in contention and out of trouble, and steady improvement as a 4-year-old, Blackjackcat looks dangerous and he probably will be a nice price. It’s not like he came out of the blue, either. He ran third in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby and Los Alamitos Derby at 3 and was only beaten 3 ½ lengths in last year’s Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. Blackjackcat’s dam (mother) won 14 of 26 starts on the grass, including four stakes, and was probably best at a mile.

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3. Elate

While I respected Elate before the Alabama, I didn’t see her utter domination of eight opponents coming in what is the marquee race of the summer for 3-year-old fillies. After finishing a troubled second by a head to Abel Tasman — the 2017 Longines Kentucky Oaks winner and current 3-year-old filly division leader — Elate took control in the stretch of the Alabama and drove to a 5 ½-length runaway. Her only previous stakes win came in June at Delaware Park in the Light Hearted Stakes, but make no mistake, Elate was always a serious filly. She ran second in a stakes race in her second career start in February before finishing third in the Grade 3 Honeybee. After failing to finish the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott thought she might be in the midst of a growth spurt and gave Elate some time off. “You could tell she was probably a filly that was going through a little bit of a growing stage, a development stage. We said then that she probably wouldn't be on her game for the Kentucky Oaks, that she was more of an Alabama filly and that's exactly how it worked out.” By Medaglia d’Oro out of stakes winner Cheery, by Distorted Humor, Elate is getting better at the right time. She still has a way to go to catch up with Songbird and Stellar Wind if she hopes to have a chance in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but Elate is certainly headed in the right direction.

Hunt (Eclipse Sportswire)

Honorable Mentions: Proctor’s Ledge was the most difficult omission from the top three. She closed exceptionally fast to win the Grade 2 Lake Placid for her second straight graded stakes win and posted a new career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure. She’s really finding her stride right now, but my concern is whether she’ll be ready to tackle older females in the Filly and Mare Turf, usually a very tough Breeders’ Cup race. … After his victory in the Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes, I said I wanted to see Hunt do it again before I became a believer. Well, he did it again in winning the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap Presented by The Japan Racing Association, but he did not finish as fast going an extra quarter-mile and dropped ten points to a 110 Equibase Speed Figure. I’m taking a cautious approach. … Conquest Panthera closed powerfully to beat a very strong field in the Grade 2 Play the King Stakes at Woodbine on Aug. 19. I’m not sure five-eighths of a mile is long enough for him, but he’s now 3-for-3 sprinting on the grass and he almost certainly would get plenty of pace in the Turf Sprint to set up his closing kick.

COOLING DOWN

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1. Bal a Bali

Perhaps no result was more surprising last week than Bal a Bali finishing last of six, beaten by 6 ½ lengths, in the Del Mar Mile Handicap on Aug. 20 at Del Mar. The 7-year-old had won the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile Stakes and Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes this year, with an unplaced finish in between on rain-softened turf in a Grade 1 race on the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands undercard. He had an excuse in that race, but on firm turf at his best distance, the Del Mar Mile was a real head-scratcher from a gallant professional who has won 15 of 25 career starts on the grass. It marked a 10-point drop from a 119 Equibase Speed Figure for the Shoemaker Mile win to a 109. Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella is a master at finding the right buttons to push with his horses, but he’ll need to find the key quickly if Bal a Bali is going to be a factor in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Mile.

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2. Ashleyluvssugar

I gave Ashleyluvssugar a pass after running second as the 7-to-10 favorite in the Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes on July 22 at Del Mar, but the 6-year-old came up empty in the stretch of the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap Presented by The Japan Racing Association on Aug. 19 and faded to sixth. From April 2015 through the Eddie Read, Ashleyluvssugar had won four of 11 starts and finished in the top three in six others with the only blemish a solid fifth in last year’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf. I didn’t like what I saw last weekend at Del Mar from the bay gelding, who didn’t show his usual fight in the stretch. Usually a picture of consistency, let’s hope trainer Peter Eurton can help Ashleyluvssugar return to peak form. He’ll need to be at his absolute best to be a factor in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Michael Burns/Woodbine

3. Holy Helena

Expectations for Holy Helena were high entering the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on Aug. 19 at Saratoga after she won the Woodbine Oaks Presented by Budweiser in June then overwhelmed males by 3 ½ lengths in winning the Queen’s Plate Stakes, a Canadian classic race, in July. Already proven at 1 ¼ miles, Holy Helena did not look like she was comfortable keeping up with a much faster early pace in the Alabama than she faced in the Queen’s Plate and began to retreat as the field neared the top of the stretch. She faded to eighth, beaten by 15 ¾ lengths as the tepid favorite in the Alabama. Perhaps she prefers the synthetic surface at Woodbine or simply disliked the dirt main track at Saratoga. Maybe the pace was too hot for her early to gain her preferred stalking trip and also reserve enough energy to accelerate late. This is a talented filly with a bright future, but the Alabama showed that perhaps she was not quite ready to tackle the best 3-year-old fillies in North America in her fifth-career start.

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Notable: La Coronel made her first start since traveling to England for the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at the prestigious Royal Ascot meeting in the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes on Aug. 19 at Saratoga. She won the Grade 3 Appalachian Stakes Presented by The Japan Racing Association impressively in April at Keeneland and then won the Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes on the Longines Kentucky Oaks undercard. She looked, at the time, like the best 3-year-old turf filly in the U.S., but after running fifth at Royal Ascot, she finished fourth of five in the Lake Placid. I’m willing to give her a pass for her first start after a trans-Atlantic trip, plus she ran a new career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure. Give her another shot and I expect we’ll see a return to winning form.