Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

It’s time for another great weekend of racing and wagering from Keeneland and the traditional second Saturday fall feature at the meet is the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes, which more-or-less serves as the season ending championship race for 3-year-old fillies on the turf. This year the QEII has come up with an exceptionally good and evenly matched field as the feature race of a solid 10-race Saturday program. For this weekend’s winners, let’s make the QEII the focus of our efforts along with a loaded maiden race in the finale. If we can pick the winner of the feature and add a score in the late daily double, we should close out a winning day at Keeneland. Best of luck.

Saturday, Oct. 10

Keeneland, Race 9, $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes, post time 5:16 p.m. ET

The QEII has drawn a stacked 11-horse field of 3-year-old fillies ready to go 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The X-factor in the race – and it’s a big one – is the presence of #2 Luster, who exits three straight wins on Woodbine’s all-weather surface including last time when she crushed males by 7 ¼ lengths to win the Canadian $1 million King’s Plate Stakes in the first leg of Canada’s Triple Crown. She bypassed the other races in the Triple Crown series to point for this spot where she will switch back to the grass. Regular rider John Veleazquez is aboard for the mount. The question is whether or not she can be as good on turf as she is on an all-weather surface and you are either with her or against her in this spot as the 5-2 morning-line favorite – but unlike many horses making the synthetic-to-turf surface switch, Luster already proved herself on the grass earlier in her career with a Keeneland turf allowance win this spring. Take a stand and look for Luster to retain her winning ways this Saturday. If we’re using the favorite, we need to look for value elsewhere in the field with some potentially overlooked contenders for exactas and trifectas. #6 Braida is a French invader with terrific form that merits consideration at bargain 8-1 odds on the morning line. She travels for this assignment after winning three of her four turf outings in France. Her only turf loss was two races ago when she got buried in traffic in the late stages. She looks more dangerous here than her odds would suggest. Finally, speaking of overlays, anytime you can get a Chad Brown-trained filly in a Grade 1 turf race at 12-1 odds you should probably take it, and that’s the case with #10 Deep Learning. She finished second in Saratoga’s Grade 3 Lake George Stakes Presented by Surfside when needing a race off a nine-month layoff and last time finished third in the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes where her stalking move was hampered by a slow pace. A legit pace seems assured in the QE II.

The Play: Bet on #2 Luster (5-2) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #6 Braida (8-1) and #10 Deep Learning (12-1). Start the late daily double with #2 Luster and use her over the top picks listed below for race 10.

Keeneland, Race 10, $110,000 Maiden special weight, post time 5:48 p.m. ET

Keeneland’s Saturday nightcap is a six-furlong maiden special weight race for 3-year-old fillies that has drawn a full field that is loaded with contenders. Barring some excessive tote action on one of the first starters in the field, let’s stick with the horses in the race who have already run starting with #12 Fletch’s Rockette, who was unfortunate to run into a 1-5 odds buzzsaw two races ago in her most recent dirt outing at Saratoga and had to settle for second. No dice last time on turf but she switches back to the main track today to get the maiden win. #3 Only Me is another one that tried the turf last time and she nearly graduated, but her career debut dirt race before that actually earned her a much higher Beyer Speed Figure and she’s extremely dangerous switching back to the dirt for trainer Wesley Ward. Bob Baffert also has a horse in this race and it’s the speedy #11 Kaykay, who has been knocking on the door at this level when second in her last two starts at Ellis Park and Churchill Downs. Also, another contender is first on the also-eligibles and that’s #13 Just a Girl, who exits a close second in her Saratoga career debut for trainer Todd Pletcher.

The Play: Bet on #12 Fletch’s Rockette (9-2) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #3 Only Me (10-1) and #11 Kaykay (5-2). Use all three of those in the back-end of the late daily double and also throw in #13 Just a Girl (5-1) if she draws in to the race.