It’s opening weekend of the fall meet at Keeneland Race Course, where we’ll see both rising stars and some of the most notable current horses in training looking to establish themselves as Breeders’ Cup contenders. With that, there are plenty of opportunities to take swings, and I’ve found a few prices on the Fall Stars Saturday program that seem genuinely intriguing.

As usual for articles like this, we’ll look at horses 6-1 or higher on the morning line. There’s a lot to dive into, so let’s get started…

Keeneland, Race 1, maiden special weight, post time 1 p.m. ET: #7 Mayfield (6-1 morning-line odds)

This race has a number of horses that will get bet despite some underwhelming performances. Furthermore, I’m not at all sold on #4 Dream Machine, the 9-5 morning line favorite. I know he came off a layoff last time, but he sat an ideal trip off of a very fast pace and couldn’t capitalize. Perhaps he steps forward and gets the money, but I can’t back him at a short price.

Of the alternatives, the one whose poor debut I’m most willing to stomach is Mayfield. His initial outing sprinting six furlongs at Ellis Park wasn’t great, but trainer Brendan Walsh isn’t known for having horses fully cranked on debut. He’s posted several sharp works since that effort, and his pedigree says the added distance of the Beard course (just over seven furlongs) won’t be an issue. Add in the presence of Tyler Gaffalione, this barn’s first-call rider, and I think there’s plenty to like at a bit of a price in the Saturday lid-lifter.

Keeneland, Race 4, allowance optional claiming, post time 2:36 p.m. ET: #4 Durante (6-1)

It’s nice when you can find plenty of reasons to draw a line through a clunker, and that’s what I’m doing with Durante’s dud in the Light and Wonder Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes. Plainly and simply, he’s not a turf horse, and it sure seems like the connections were taking a swing at a big purse.

Here, he runs against non-stakes foes for the first time since April, which means he gets to run with Lasix again after racing without for four starts. We know that his best effort is very good. He won the John A. Nerud Stakes at Aqueduct earlier this year, and the running lines of some of his other races include several top-class sprinters.

I’m not crazy about Durante being entered for a claiming tag, which was a necessity in order for him to run. However, trainer David Jacobson is an aggressive one, and he’s not afraid of losing horses via the claim box (even high-caliber ones like this). With that in mind, I’d happily take the morning-line price if I can get it come post time.

Keeneland, Race 8, First Lady Stakes, post time 4:44 p.m. ET: #2 Lush Lips (8-1)

Lush Lips (Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo)

We’ll finish things off with a price in the First Lady. I’m not sure we’ll quite get 8-1 on Lush Lips, a very accomplished turf distaffer, but if we do, I’ll be first in line to bet her.

Lush Lips got very good near the end of last season, as she won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes here at Keeneland. She then added two more scores in graded stakes company before going to the sidelines, and her return race in late August at Ellis Park wasn’t bad considering it was her first try in nearly six months. She had every right to need that race, and I think she’ll be much, much sharper here (over a turf course she’s shown she likes).

There are 10 others signed on in the First Lady, and the group is a talented one. However, from a value standpoint, this filly is the one I want. If the Lush Lips we saw in late 2025 and early 2026 is the one that goes to the gate late on Saturday afternoon, I think she’ll have a big chance at another big score.