Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, July 11

The traditional portion of the Saratoga season begins this week, and “the Spa” will host a terrific day of racing and wagering this Saturday kicking off nine more great weeks of summer racing at the meet. This weekend’s feature race is the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes Presented by Emerald Evocations on the grass, which will start the late Daily Double. For this weekend’s winners, let’s delve into handicapping the late double starting with the Bowling Green. If we can finish strong on Saturday, we should be well on our way to a winning weekend at the Spa. Best of luck and enjoy the races.

Saratoga Race Course, Race 10, $250,000 Bowling Green Stakes presented by Emerald Evocations, 5:39 p.m. ET

Carson's Run wins Grade 1 race at Saratoga (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes drew a seven-horse field of older horses ready to roll at 1 3/8 miles on the turf. You can make a case for just about anyone to win, so in the spirit of the wide-open nature of this race let’s pick a longshot. #5 Carson’s Run is trying to recapture his form from earlier in his career when he was a Grade 1-winning turfer at Saratoga and also a Grade 3 winner at this turf distance back in 2024. This race actually is his first attempt at this distance since winning the Grade 3 Jockey Club Derby Invitational in October 2024, and it could be the key to a career revival after he finished off the board in both of his races so far this year in races at much shorter distances. He’s worth a shot at value 10-1 odds on the morning line. The favorites in this field both look solid, and since we already have a price horse on our tickets, we can go ahead and also include both #4 Fort George and #6 Minaret Station in our bets. Fort George spent this past winter running in distance turf races in Dubai, where he won a Group 3 race and placed in a Group 2 race on the road to the $5 million Dubai Turf Stakes. He fits well against this company in his U.S. debut, and regular jockey Kieran Shoemark makes the international journey along with him for this race. Minaret Station is pursuing a 4-year-old resurgence after winning stakes races at ages 2 and 3. He exits a solid second-place effort in the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes, which he lost by three-quarters of a length to Lagynos, who has been an unbeatable turf monster so far in 2026.

The Play: Bet on #5 Carson’s Run (10-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #4 Fort George (9-5) and #6 Minaret Station (2-1). Start the late Daily Double with all three of these horses along with the top pick in Race 11.

Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, $100,000 maiden special weight, 6:15 p.m. ET

Saturday’s finale is a maiden race for New York-breds going 1 1/16 miles on the turf that has drawn an 11-horse field, plus one also-eligible entrant. The horse to beat is #10 Coach Ryan ready to make his 3-year-old debut in this spot coming off a nine-month layoff for trainer Chad Brown, who brings his horses back live off of these types of layoffs. Coach Ryan ran a 64 Beyer Speed Figure in October of his 2-year-old season when finishing second behind only a repeat next-out winner. Now he returns as a new gelding with first-time Lasix (furosemide) and should be best in this state-bred field. #5 Karsten looks like the top challenger in the race with jockey Flavien Prat aboard after rallying wide for third, just a head out of second in his career debut June 13. Regular second-out type of improvement will make him a contender against these. Finally, let’s round out our bets with first-time starter #11 Maximum Heat, who goes out for the top-notch connections jockey Jose Ortiz and trainer Linda Rice.

The Play: Bet on #10 Coach Ryan (5-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #5 Karsten (3-1) and #11 Maximum Heat (5-1).