Japan rejoiced earlier this month, when Forever Young shipped to the United States and took down all comers in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. A few weeks later, the land of the rising sun will have its biggest racing day of the year, headlined by the Group 1 Japan Cup on Sunday, Nov. 30.

A world-class field will go about 2,400 meters (roughly 1 ½ miles) over the turf at Tokyo Racecourse. In keeping with the race’s lofty stature and hefty purse of about $7.2 million, the betting favorite is one of the top horses in the world.

Can any horse top Calandagan?

Calandagan ships to Japan for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard to end a campaign where he earned Cartier Horse of the Year honors. He’s won three Group 1 races in his native Europe, with his most recent score coming in the QIPCO Champion Stakes. He also annexed the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Grand Prix de Saint Cloud.

Calandagan likely would’ve been favored in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf had his connections opted to make the trip. That didn’t come to pass this year, but Graffard and owner Aga Khan Stud have said the 2026 renewal of that race at Keeneland is on the table as they look forward to next year.

Simply put, if Calandagan puts forth the type of effort he’s capable of, the rest of the field is probably running for second. I wish I could get more creative than that, but I just think Calandagan is that good.

So, how do we make money?

Croix du Nord (Eclipse Sportswire)

I’ll focus on getting particular horses in behind Calandagan in exotic bets such as the exacta and trifecta. I’ll have two logical horses on my tickets, as well as a price.

Masquerade Ball will likely take money off of his win in the Tenno Sho on this course a few weeks ago. Christophe Lemaire rides back, and this colt is a 3-year-old that could still be improving. I’m not 100% sure, however, that he truly wants this much ground (he seems to be at his best going 1,800-2,000 meters, or 1 1/8 to 1 ¼ miles).

Croix du Nord cannot be ignored, either. He won the Group 1 Tokyo Yushun, the Japanese Derby back in June at this route of ground, and his connections saw fit to ship to Europe for the Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe and run against some of the best horses in Europe. That didn’t go well, as he ran a distant 14^th, but he’s back on his home turf here and has had a little time to rest up after that trip. If he’s his usual self, he’s in with a shot.

Looking at prices in the international betting pools, Sunrise Earth is a worthy longshot. The 2,400-meter distance shouldn’t be what beats this runner, who figures to be prominent early on. He was a solid second in a Group 2 stakes in Japan last time out, and that was his first effort in five months. Earlier this year, he won a Group 2 going 3,000 meters, or roughly 2 ½ miles. If he’s sharp, he could lead them a long way and hang on for a piece of the purse.

America’s Best Racing will be on site at Tokyo Racecourse and also filming around the track to highlight popular attractions for visiting fans. Follow America’s Best Racing’s TikTok and Instagram accounts for complete coverage, and videos will also be posted on our Facebook and X accounts.

Betting strategy on a $20 budget:

$4 exacta, Calandagan with Croix du Nord, Masquerade Ball, and Sunrise Earth ($12)

$1 trifecta, Calandagan with Croix du Nord, Masquerade Ball, and Sunrise Earth, with Croix du Nord, Masquerade Ball, and Sunrise Earth ($6)