A pivotal question faces horseplayers handicapping Saturday’s $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill Downs: Will #3 Thorpedo Anna rebound to peak form?
Thorpedo Anna was nothing less than sensational in 2024. She won six out of seven starts, including the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and three other Grade 1 races. Her lone defeat came by a head to champion Fierceness when facing males in the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes. This sensational campaign earned Thorpedo Anna Horse of the Year honors.
Thorpedo Anna started 2025 on a strong note, posting easy victories in the Grade 2 Azeri Stakes and Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap. But she completely misfired in the Grade 1 Fasig-Tipton La Troienne Stakes on May 2 at Churchill Downs, finishing last out of seven. She crossed the finish line 7 3/4 lengths behind #5 Taxed, who is back for the Fleur de Lis.
So, what went wrong in the La Troienne? Maybe running back 20 days after the Apple Blossom was too quick. Or perhaps Thorpedo Anna’s misfire was the result of early traffic trouble — she was bumped repeatedly between rivals heading into the first turn, which may have impacted her performance.
In any case, the stage appears set for a rebound in the Fleur de Lis. Thorpedo Anna has been freshened for eight weeks, and she enters off fast workouts at Churchill. Furthermore, she’s only facing four rivals, none of whom typically races on the lead. Thorpedo Anna is perfectly comfortable winning races leading from start to finish, as she demonstrated in the Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff, so there’s a strong chance she’ll dash to the lead and never look back this Saturday.
We recommend playing the Fleur de Lis accordingly, betting Thorpedo Anna on top in the trifecta, which requires selecting the top three finishers in order.
For second place, we’ll use #4 Gin Gin, the improving Grade 3 Baird Doubledogdare Stakes winner who finished second to #1 Royal Spa in the Grade 3 Shawnee Stakes at Churchill Downs last month. Gin Gin has a good chance to track Thorpedo Anna’s modest pace and then hold off Royal Spa down the homestretch.
We’ll definitely use Royal Spa for third place, and if you opt for the larger of our two wagering strategies, we’ll also throw in a smaller trifecta using Taxed for third.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 trifecta: 3 with 4 with 1
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 7, $10 trifecta 3 with 4 with 1
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$20 trifecta: 3 with 4 with 1
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 7, $20 trifecta 3 with 4 with 1
$10 trifecta: 3 with 4 with 5
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 7, $10 trifecta 3 with 4 with 5
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
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