Who will win the 150th running of the $2 million, Grade 1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course? With Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Sovereignty skipping the race, there’s an opportunity for a new name to enter the spotlight.

Analyzing the last 10 to 20 years of Preakness history can reveal recurring trends useful for identifying the most likely winner. The following six guidelines should help you sort through the contenders for the 2025 Preakness field:

Favor horses with early speed

Early speed is an advantage in the Preakness. Six of the last 20 winners (30%) were leading after the opening half-mile, and 16 of the last 20 (80%) were racing in the front half of the field after the opening half-mile.

In contrast, only three Preakness winners in the last 20 years (15%) have rallied from more than five lengths off the pace after the opening half-mile. Two of them (Curlin in 2007 and Afleet Alex in 2005) benefited from closing into the fastest and second-fastest opening half-mile fractions of the last 20 years.

Kentucky Derby starters are no longer dominant

For decades, horses coming from the Kentucky Derby dominated the Preakness. But that’s no longer the case. Six of the last eight Preakness winners (including the last five in a row) skipped the Kentucky Derby, signaling the emergence of a new trend in which fresh faces are more likely to win the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas are the top trainers

Lukas and Seize the Grey a day after 2024 Preakness. (Jim McCue/Maryland Jockey Club)

Hall of Fame trainers Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas have excelled in the Preakness. Baffert has won the race a record eight times, including four of the last 20 editions. Lukas has won the Preakness seven times, including two of the last 20.

Don’t be afraid to bet double-digit longshots

Favorites have done well over the last 20 years of Preakness history, winning six editions (30%). But longshots starting at double-digit odds have likewise posted six wins in the last 20 years, so in any given year you’re as likely to see a major upset as a winning favorite. And there was nearly a seventh double-digit winner last year when Seize the Grey upset the Preakness at odds of 9.80-1.

Support graded stakes performers, especially winners

Did you know 25 of the last 30 Preakness winners had previously won a graded stakes? That tally includes 18 horses who had won at the Grade 1 level prior to the Preakness.

Plus, the five horses who scored their first graded stakes win in the Preakness had either finished second at the Grade 1 level or had placed in multiple graded stakes. It’s wise to avoid betting unproven horses who have never run (or run well) at the graded stakes level.

Consider horses exiting defeats

It’s become increasingly common for horses who lost their latest race to bounce back and win the Preakness. Seven of the last 10 winners — and 12 of the last 20 — entered the Preakness off a defeat.

Conclusions

History suggests the most likely winner of the 2025 Preakness Stakes is River Thames.

Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher River Thames (Coglianese photos/Ryan Thompson)

Although River Thames has yet to win a graded stakes, he’s placed multiple times at the graded stakes level. In the Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, he finished second by a neck to future Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Sovereignty. And in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, his most recent race, River Thames was beaten by only three-quarters of a length while finishing third.

River Thames has pressed or tracked the pace in all four of his starts, so he has enough early speed to suit the Preakness. He skipped the Kentucky Derby, so he comes in fresh. He’s entering off a defeat, and with Kentucky Derby runner-up Journalism joining the Preakness field, there’s a chance River Thames will drift into the double-digit odds range.

River Thames isn’t a perfect match for the historical profile of a typical Preakness winner, but he matches many of the criteria we’ve outlined, suggesting he’s a win contender in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Good luck, and enjoy the race!