
A Day in the Life of a Kentucky Derby Horse
For a devoted follower of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve trail, the Derby future book presents an opportunity to get tremendous value by betting your favorite 3-year-old to win on the first Saturday in May months in advance. The Preakness Future Win Wager offers a similar proposition, though the ask is not as daunting.
The Preakness future book opens on Friday, April 25 at noon ET, and closes at 6 p.m. on Saturday, May 3, approximately one hour before the Derby goes off. The pool features 39 individual interests, as well as a “field” bet. Last year, Seize the Grey closed at 25-1 in the Preakness future book, then captured the run for the Black-eyed Susans at 9-1. Those who liked him in advance got almost three times the price of those who backed him on race day.
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One’s first instinct might be to bet on whoever you like in the Kentucky Derby. All 20 horses currently in the Derby field are listed as individual interests in the Preakness future book, and you’ll surely get much better odds on the Derby winner in the Preakness future book than you will on Preakness Stakes day. Mystik Dan, for instance, closed at 45-1 in the Preakness future book, but went off as the 2-1 favorite on Preakness day.
Journalism is the 8-1 morning-line favorite in the Preakness future book, and is expected to go off as the relatively heavy Derby favorite. If he wins the Derby as easily as some people think he will, he would be the big favorite on Preakness day, making him a great bet in the Preakness future book, right?
Well, that’s a big “if.” In the past nine editions of the Preakness, the Derby winner is 1-for-7 — including Medina Spirit, who was the official Derby winner at the time of the Preakness — with 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify the lone exception. Contrary to trainers of the past, who would get their top 3-year-olds ready to contest all three legs of the Triple Crown, trainers nowadays are heavily focused on the Derby, first and foremost — even at the expense of missing the Preakness. This has been borne out by recent results, as the last five Preakness winners did not contest the Derby.
As such, better value might be found in the so-called “new shooters,” who are more likely to have been pointed toward the Preakness over the past few weeks. A prime example is Baeza, the much-hyped Santa Anita Derby runner-up who is currently 23rd in the Derby qualifying points standings.
If Baeza does not get into the Kentucky Derby field, he’ll very likely go to the Preakness. If the Derby is won by a longshot, Baeza may well go off as the Preakness favorite. He’s 12-1 on the Preakness future book morning line, and while he’ll definitely go down from that price, it’s still a great opportunity to lock in decent odds before the hype machine kicks in.
Bob Baffert trainee Cornucopian is another good example. He was treated as the second coming after an impressive debut win at Oaklawn Park in March but was fourth next out in the Arkansas Derby as the odds-on favorite. He’s entered in an allowance race at Aqueduct on Sunday. If Cornucopian wins, he may be Preakness-bound, and he’d be hyped to the moon if he went. A 10-1 morning line in the Preakness future book is very generous if you think he has a shot.
It might be tempting to simply go with your Derby pick in the Preakness future book, but recent history says otherwise. If you find the right new shooter early enough, though, you’ll be generously rewarded.
Make your bets on the May 3 Kentucky Derby with 1/ST and get everything you need to know about all of the contenders in ABR’s official Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet presented by 1/ST.