Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we take a look each week at a recent winner on the Road to the Derby schedule that distributes qualifying points for the 1 ¼-mile classic race May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we take a closer look at Rodriguez, the 3 ½-length winner of the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino April 5 at Aqueduct. The Authentic colt earned 100 points toward qualifying for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. He ranks third on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 121.25 total points.

Racing Résumé: Rodriguez has finished in the top three in all five of his starts. After a maiden win at one mile Jan. 4 at Santa Anita Park that earned a big speed figure, he has raced exclusively in stakes on the Kentucky Derby trail. He finished second to champion (and Bob Baffert stablemate) Citizen Bull in the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 1 and then a distant third behind Journalism and stablemate Barnes in the $300,000 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes March 1, both at Santa Anita.

Baffert shipped Rodriguez to New York in search of his first stakes win and removed his blinkers for the Wood Memorial Stakes, a tactic that the Hall of Fame trainer has used frequently with maturing 3-year-olds with good results. Rodriguez set a solid pace under Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith in the Wood Memorial through a half-mile in :47.44 and finished well, completing the final three-eighths of a mile in :36.90 and the final furlong in :12.47 en route to a dominant win.

Rodriguez – named for the late musician Sixto Rodriguez profiled in the film “Searching for Sugar Man” – is a May 20 foal, so while he is officially 3 years old, he still has about a month and a half until he truly turns 3. Part-owner Tom Ryan said he believes Rodriguez’s improvement is due to mental maturation.

“The feedback from Mike Smith was, ‘Tom, he went through the wire with his ears pricked and he wanted more,’” Ryan said. “He’s a May baby that is really starting to come into himself at the right time, not widely different from his father. Authentic took a while to mature, not necessarily physically, but the mental aspect needed to come together.”

Speed Figures: Rodriguez’s one-mile maiden win by seven lengths Jan. 4 produced stellar speed figures, earning a 105 Equibase Speed Figure and a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in just his second race. He was unable to match those numbers in the Robert B. Lewis and San Felipe Stakes, but in the Wood Memorial he bettered them with a 111 Equibase Speed Figure and 101 Beyer Speed Figure, both career-bests. The Equibase number is the highest for a 3-year-old in a stakes race in 2025 while the Beyer figure is seven points off the top number earned by a 3-year-old.

Running Style: In his previous two stakes races, Rodriguez was asked to rate off the pace behind stablemates Citizen Bull and Barnes in five-horse fields. He was beaten by 3 ¾ lengths in the Robert B. Lewis and by 11 ¼ lengths in the San Felipe Stakes. He returned to the pacesetting tactics that led to his breakout maiden win in January for the Wood Memorial Stakes and his connections were rewarded with a second dominant win. There will be plenty of competition for the early lead in the Kentucky Derby, but it would appear Rodriguez feels most comfortable when in front and dictating the tempo.

A grateful Mike Smith after the win. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Pedigree Notes: A $485,000 purchase at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale, Rodriguez is from the first crop of 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic, by leading sire Into Mischief. Authentic won the Kentucky Derby in September 2020 after it was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and in November 2020 won the Breeders’ Cup Classic by 2 ¼ lengths. Rodriguez is Authentic’s first graded stakes winner.

Rodriguez was produced by the winning Cherokee Run mare Cayala, the dam of three stakes winners. In addition to Rodriguez, she has produced 2017 Southwest Stakes winner One Liner and Grade 1-placed multiple stakes winner Provocateur, both by Into Mischief, and thus very close siblings to Rodriguez.

Derby Potential: Which is the real Rodriguez? Is it the 3-year-old colt who finished 11 ¼ lengths behind Journalism in the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes or is it the dominant winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes April 5 at Aqueduct? The answer probably lies somewhere in between.

I believe Rodriguez is improving mentally and very likely physically as well, and I also think getting away from speedy stablemates in small Southern California fields was good for him.  

However, he does seem to be a 3-year-old who gains significant confidence when setting the pace. Getting to the front in the Kentucky Derby against up to 19 other 3-year-olds will be a challenge, and if he does set the pace while facing steady pressure, how much will he have left for the long stretch run at Churchill Downs?

Authentic faced similar questions in the 2020 Kentucky Derby and proved up to the challenge, but he had more time to mature for that September classic. That said, Rodriguez is trending the right way, trainer Baffert knows how to have a 3-year-old peaking on the first Saturday in May, and he’s fast enough on paper to be a legitimate win candidate.