Analyzing the recent history of the $750,000, Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino April 5 at Aqueduct reveals several trends helpful for handicapping the 1 1/8-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier.

The five trends listed below make it easy to parse through the contenders for the 2025 Wood Memorial and determine which horse best matches the profile of a typical Wood Memorial winner:

Avoid betting on the pacesetter

Pacesetters rarely win the Wood Memorial. The last horse to lead from start to finish in the Wood Memorial was Bellamy Road in 2005. Furthermore, eight of the last 14 winners raced outside the first three after the opening half-mile, including six who closed from the back half of the field.

It’s not uncommon for horses to win the Wood Memorial after racing within two lengths of the early lead, but you should think twice before betting “need-the-lead” front-runners, and there’s no reason to fear backing a late runner if you believe they’re the best horse in the race.

Graded stakes experience is important

Horses with experience competing at the graded stakes level have won 13 of the last 14 editions of the Wood Memorial. The only Wood Memorial conqueror since 2010 who entered without graded stakes experience was Bourbonic, who sprung a 72.25-1 upset in 2021.

Todd Pletcher is interviewed at Aqueduct. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Bet on trainer Todd Pletcher

Seven Wood Memorial winners since 2010 (Eskendereya, Gemologist, Verrazano, Outwork, Vino Rosso, Bourbonic, and Mo Donegal) have come from the barn of Todd Pletcher. No other trainer has won the Wood Memorial more than twice during the same timeframe.

Favor horses shipping north from Florida

Although the Wood Memorial takes place in New York, most of the winners ship up from Florida. Indeed, 11 of the last 14 Wood Memorial winners exited a race at either Gulfstream Park or Tampa Bay Downs, a lofty success rate considering only 38 Florida raiders have competed in the Wood Memorial since 2010.

Bet sons of Grade 1-winning route racers

Did you know 12 of the last 14 Wood Memorial winners were sired by stallions who won a Grade 1 race going 1 1/16 miles or farther? Furthermore, the two winners who defied this trend were sired by Grade 1-winning sprinters who stretched their speed to record top-four finishers in the Kentucky Derby.

Conclusions

Wood Memorial entrant Hill Road. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Five of the 12 entrants in the 2025 Wood Memorial have graded stakes experience, and five of the 12 are coming out of a race in Florida. Yet only one horse matches both of these important criteria: #8 Hill Road.

Hill Road is a son of Quality Road, who won three Grade 1 races running farther than 1 1/16 miles. He is a stretch-running colt who has performed well on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, finishing third in both the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance and Grade 3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby.

Hill Road matches four of our five historical trends. He’s trained by Chad Brown rather than Todd Pletcher, but that’s all right—Brown has won four Eclipse Awards as outstanding trainer and has saddled a few competitive Wood Memorial starters in the past. History suggests Hill Road is the most likely winner of the Wood Memorial.

Enjoy the race!