For many years, the $1 million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park has been contested three weeks prior to the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. It’s been a productive time slot; over the last 25 years, the 1 1/8-mile race has produced champions and/or classic winners American Pharoah, Creator, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Victory Gallop, and more.

But this year, the Arkansas Derby will take place five weeks out from the Kentucky Derby. The two-week shift figures to impact the Arkansas Derby’s contributions to the Kentucky Derby qualifying scene, though in what manner remains to be seen.

However, the change shouldn’t have too much effect on the types of horses who excel in the Arkansas Derby. If you’re planning to bet Oaklawn’s signature race, reviewing the recent history of the Arkansas Derby is worth your time. Identifying historical trends and tendencies can be a big handicapping help, allowing you to sort through the contenders and determine which ones best match the profile of a typical Arkansas Derby winner.

So what are we waiting for? Let’s dig in:

Favor pacesetters and speed horses

While it’s not impossible for late runners to win the Arkansas Derby, it’s much more common for speed horses to hold the advantage. Eight of the last 15 Arkansas Derby winners (53%) were racing first, second, or third after the opening half mile. Furthermore, only two of the last 15 Arkansas Derby winners (13%) settled more than 3 ½ lengths off the pace after the opening half mile, so deep closers – the kind without any tactical speed – tend to be at a disadvantage.

Favorites have been on a roll

Favorites have a strong record of success in recent editions of the Arkansas Derby. Five of the last six winners (83%) started as the top betting choice, along with 11 of the last 18 (61%). Considering favorites in general win around 30-40% of races, this is an impressive record of success for favorites in the Arkansas Derby.

Double-digit longshots succeed more often than mid-range longshots

If you want to oppose the Arkansas Derby favorite (after all, they don’t win every year), you’re better off thinking outside the box than betting the second or third wagering choice. Since 2010, five double-digit longshots have visited the Arkansas Derby winner’s circle: Super Stock (12.20-1), Creator (11.60-1), Danza (41.30-1), Archarcharch (25.20-1), and Line of David (17.30-1). During the same timeframe, only one non-favored runner prevailed at single-digit odds, so “go big or go home” seems to be the right strategy when playing longshots.

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Out-of-state shippers frequently prevail

Horses conducting their regular training away from Oaklawn have been enjoying stronger success in the Arkansas Derby than local runners. Since 2010, Creator, Archarcharch, and Super Stock are the only Oaklawn-based runners to reach the Arkansas Derby winner’s circle, with horses based in California and Florida frequently dominating the proceedings.

Look for horses exiting the Rebel Stakes

Whether they’re local runners or horses shipping in from out of state, Arkansas Derby winners frequently utilize Oaklawn’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes as their final prep race before the Arkansas Derby. Remarkably, six of the last eight Arkansas Derby winners exited the Rebel, with Nadal, Omaha Beach, Magnum Moon, and American Pharoah winning both races (Omaha Beach won a division of the Rebel in 2019).

Favor sons of top-class, long-winded stallions

The data is clear: 11 of the last 15 Arkansas Derby winners were sired by stallions who won at least one Grade 1 race running one mile or farther. Elite class and two-turn stamina are essential traits for winning the Arkansas Derby, and stallions who demonstrated these tendencies themselves are the most likely to sire winners of Oaklawn’s signature race.

Conclusions

Entries for the Arkansas Derby were drawn on Sunday, and in analyzing the nine-horse field, a couple of horses stand out as logical contenders when viewed through a historical lens. It’s unclear how the Arkansas Derby betting will unfold, but there’s a chance at least one of these runners will drift into the double-digit odds range.

The first is #5 Un Ojo. He isn’t a son of a Grade 1-winning router, but that’s arguably the only angle he fails to match. Un Ojo has been based (at least for the most part) away from Oaklawn Park, and he showed tactical speed when shipping in for the Rebel Stakes last month. Racing in third place after the opening half-mile, Un Ojo ultimately rallied with determination up the inside to win by half a length.

The other horse with solid historical credentials is #8 Cyberknife. Based in Louisiana, Cyberknife is a son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who won a bevy of Grade 1 stakes (including the Breeders’ Cup Classic) running one mile or farther.

Cyberknife disappointed in his only previous graded stakes attempt, finishing sixth in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. But Cyberknife bounced back impressively in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds last month, racing close to the pace before seizing command to win by three lengths. He isn’t exiting the Rebel Stakes, but Cyberknife is a good fit for the other trends we’ve outlined.

Good luck, and enjoy the race!