Noel’s Weekend Winners: Great Betting Races on the Kentucky Derby Undercard

Gambling
Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby, Derby City Distaff, American Turf Stakes, betting, gambling, exacta, trifecta, win, horse racing, ABR, Kopion, Hope Road, Positano Sunset, Ways and Means, Iron Man Cal, New Century, Zulu Kingdom, Irad Ortiz, Brendan Walsh
The roar of approximately 150,000 cheering fans at the Kentucky Derby is a sound like no other. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.


Six Beginner Betting Tools

  1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
  2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
  3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
  6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Kentucky Derby weekend is here, and horse racing fans will be treated to two of the best days of racing and wagering of the year this Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs. Derby Day on Saturday alone will host eight graded stakes races including five races with purses of $1 million or more. The headliner is obviously the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve but the run for the roses is far from the only game in town. If you want to see my Kentucky Derby selection and my recommended trifecta plays, please see My Favorite Derby Trifecta Story published on America’s Best Racing earlier this week. For this column, let’s concentrate on a pair of Saturday’s top undercard events including the Grade 1 American Turf Stakes Presented by Ford and the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff Stakes Presented by Kendall-Jackson Winery. I think we can cash some good winning tickets in both of these races in order to warm up and build bankroll for the headline attraction. Best of luck this weekend and enjoy Derby Day.


Churchill Downs, Race 9, $1,000,000 American Turf Stakes Presented by Ford, post time 4:06 p.m. ET

weekend Television schedule

Friday, May 2: 1-2:30 p.m. and 5-6 p.m. on FS2; 1-6 p.m. on USA Network; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, May 3: 12-2:30 p.m. on USA Network; 12-6 p.m. on FS2; 2:30-7:30 p.m. on NBC; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, May 4: 1-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

The American Turf Stakes has drawn a full 14-horse field of 3-year-olds set to run 1 1/16 miles on the grass. Despite the overflow size of this field, the way to attack this race is to narrow it down to just its two standout contenders, and that’s the way I recommend playing this race because basically any of the other 12 horses could realistically finish third. #3 New Century and #7 Zulu Kingdom were disappointments when well-bet in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but both seem ready to rebound in this spot and make amends. With the exception of his Breeders’ Cup no-show, Zulu Kingdom has scored game stakes victories for top turf trainer Chad Brown in all of his other three most recent races including last time out when winning his prep race in his 3-year-old debut in the Columbia Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Meanwhile, New Century looked like a monster real deal when he won the Grade 1 bet365 Summer Stakes at Woodbine last fall before failing to fire in the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar. Now, New Century has been transferred to the locally based barn of trainer Brendan Walsh, he gets jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, and he has a prep race already in his back pocket a few weeks ago in England which will have him ready for a top effort in this second start off the layoff. The 3-year-old debut prep races that both Zulu Kingdom and New Century will benefit from will give them the edge on #10 Iron Man Cal, who has not raced in the six months since his second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

The Play: Bet on #3 New Century (3-1) to win and play him in an exacta box with #7 Zulu Kingdom (4-1).

Churchill Downs, Race 10, $1,000,000 Derby City Distaff Stakes Presented by Kendall-Jackson Winery, post time 4:50 p.m. ET

Churchill Downs has yet another 14-horse field in store for handicappers in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs in race 10. They’re not making it easy on us either, because several of the horses in the field loom as serious contenders. The only break we’re getting seems to be coming from the morning-line oddsmaker, who has listed #2 Kopion at value 8-1 morning line odds despite the fact she seems like the horse to beat. Kopion has just two recent outings showing in the past performances and she was a beast both times with wins in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races at the Santa Anita Park meet – both at the seven-furlong distance of the Derby City Distaff Her 4 ½-length win last time over #12 Hope Road in the Grade 2 Santa Monica Stakes earned her a massive 110 Beyer Speed Figure, so if she’s anything close to 8-1 odds today, we’ll take it and consider it a gift. The other horse that’s seemingly being disrespected in the odds is #11 Positano Sunset, a veteran who seemingly has never been in better form than she is now coming off back-to-back seven-furlong wins including last time in the Grade 1 Resolute Racing Madison Stakes where she beat a few of the same challengers she’ll face in this race. Go with the hot hand and make sure she’s included on your tickets. The favorite in this race is #8 Ways and Means who seems vulnerable making her 4-year-old debut coming off a six-month layoff. Instead of her, the other horse to put in exactas and trifectas is #1 Scylla, a Churchill Downs horse for the course who is 4-for-4 at under the Twin Spires. She seems more likely to show up with a big effort in her first race back from the layoff.

The Play: Bet on #2 Kopion (8-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 Scylla (4-1) and #11 Positano Sunset (12-1).

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