Spring is in the air and that means we are currently in the thick of one of the most active and important seasons of the year in Thoroughbred racing. The winter meets are coming to an end while racing enjoys a time of renewal at this time of year in places like Kentucky, which is reborn each spring as the calendars flip to April with the opening of the Spring Meet at Keeneland Race Course.

Keeneland racing begins Friday, April 5 and continues Wednesdays through Sundays through April 26. The short but sweet 16-raceday spring meet will host 19 stakes races with purses totaling $8.1 million. Many of the stakes happen opening weekend, including Keeneland’s premier Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve prep race, the $1 million Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 6. The meet will bring together winter horses and horsemen from the Kentucky circuit that have spent the winter and/or spring racing on Turfway Park’s all-weather track and those who will be returning to Kentucky after spending the winter at tracks such as Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, and Oaklawn Park.

For handicappers, the Keeneland meet is truly something to look forward to. Let’s take a closer look.

Keeneland dirt routes

Fans look for a winner at Keeneland. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

Starting with dirt routes, the vast majority of this races at the Keeneland spring meet are run at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles. The track did not use the one-mile distance on dirt at the 2023 spring meet and seems to reserve that distance for the fall.

Keeneland has always been known as a good inside speed track, and the inside posts are still good for bettors. especially in routes where posts 1-3 won 19 of the 32 dirt routes run at the 2023 spring meet (59%). Middle posts (8 wins, 25%) and outside posts (5 wins, 16%) fared much worse.

Running style also is important in dirt routes because it’s very difficult to come from too far off the pace and be able to win there. At the 2023 meet, speedsters on the lead or within a length won 15 of the 32 routes (47%), while pressers and stalkers won 13 races (41%). Closers coming from more than four lengths off the pace won just 4 of the 32 dirt routes (13%).

Handicapping Keeneland spring dirt sprints

In the 59 dirt sprint races at the 2023 Keeneland spring meet, post positions played remarkably fair with 21 winners coming from inside posts 1-3, 17 winners coming from middle posts 4-6, and 21 winners coming from post positions seven and outward.

As for running styles, the only real bias in dirt sprints played against closers last year. Early speed horses on the lead or within a length won 42%, and pressers and stalkers racing between one and four lengths off the early pace won 42% of the races. Closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace fared poorly in Keeneland dirt sprints at the 2023 spring meet, winning just nine of the 59 races (15%).

Keeneland turf handicapping

The other main staple of the quality racing at Keeneland is great turf racing. There were 50 turf races run at the 2023 spring meet including 37 routes and 13 sprints. In turf routes it helps to stay near the pace or within striking distance and inside posts don’t hurt, either.

The results from last year’s meet were extremely fair overall in terms of posts and running styles, however, outside posts are not good in Keeneland grass routes based on a larger sample size in turf routes run at Keeneland since the fall of 2014 that show posts outside position 8 winning far less than inside and middle draws.

Keeneland averages nearly one turf sprint a day. Based on the small sample size, speed horses seem to do the best. Last year, notably, the inside three posts were a disadvantage with just one winner from the 39 starters in 13 races to break from posts 1-3. The biggest trend in Keeneland spring turf sprints, it seems, is to expect trainer Wesley Ward to do extremely well, often at very low prices.

Keeneland spring meet top trainers

Brad Cox (Keeneland/Coady Photography)

Speaking of Ward, he is a perennial leading trainer at the Keeneland spring meet thanks to his barn full of fast, short sprinters and turf sprinters, and his precocious 2-year-olds, which often win Keeneland’s early-season juvenile races. Ward won the 2022 spring training title with 13 wins (26%) to beat out Brad Cox, who was second with 11 wins (27%). In spring 2023, it was close again with Ward beating Cox 12 wins to 11. Cox led in win percentage, however, at 39%, with Ward winning 26%. If Cox starts enough horses at Keeneland this spring, he may finally overtake Ward for the training title.

Chad Brown did great at the 2023 Keeneland spring meet, too, especially on the turf. His runners went 6-for-17 overall for 35% wins. Other trainers that are hoping to duplicate very strong spring performances at Keeneland in 2023 include Brendan Walsh, who was the third-leading trainer in wins with eight, Shug McGaughey who won with 5 of 16 starters for 31%, and Graham Motion, who won with three of his 11 starters at the meet.

Finally, some very high-profile trainers that handicappers should be aware are coming off dismal seasons last spring at Keeneland include the hoping-to-rebound barns of Mark Casse (2-for-17), Mike Maker (2-for-28), Steve Asmussen (1-for-28), Ben Colebrook (1-for-17), and Saffie Joseph Jr. (0-for-11). Bettors should proceed with caution.

The Keeneland spring meet jock’s room

Tyler Gaffalione won the 2023 Keeneland spring title with 21 wins after edging Irad Ortiz Jr. 19 wins to 18 in 2022. Gaffalione will be the favorite to win the riding title again in spring 2024, but this may depend on the degree to which Irad Ortiz is committed to riding at Keeneland during the meet. There will be some days where he will be riding at Aqueduct, instead.

The big news in the Keeneland jock’s room in 2024 involves jockey Jose Ortiz, who recently announced he is moving his tack to Kentucky, where he plans to ride the entire Keeneland and Churchill meets and then at Saratoga. Ortiz is a perennial top rider in New York and is coming off a second-place finish in the jockey standings at the Gulfstream Championship Meet. Ortiz’s daily presence is sure to change the complexion of the jockey standings so stay tuned.

The second leading rider at the 2023 Keeneland spring meet was Luis Saez, who won aboard 18 of 85 mounts for 21%. Other jockeys expected to finish in the top 10 at Keeneland will include Joel Rosario, Florent Geroux, Flavien Prat, and Brian Hernandez Jr.