The $1 million, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds is a pivotal stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The 1 3/16-mile race awards Kentucky Derby qualification points on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis to its top five finishers, and over the past decades it’s produced 33 Kentucky Derby starters led by Derby winners Country House (2019) and Mandaloun (2021).

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Large fields are commonplace in the Louisiana Derby, and the 2024 edition has drawn a dozen horses, but narrowing down the key contenders doesn’t have to be difficult. We’ve reviewed every Louisiana Derby since 2011 and compiled a list of six historical trends to help identify the most likely winner in 2024.

Speed horses enjoy the most success

Like many North American dirt races, the Louisiana Derby favors horses with speed. Since 2011, 11 out of 13 Louisiana Derby winners raced in the top four after the opening half-mile. Furthermore, four winners (Kingsbarns, Hot Rod Charlie, Wells Bayou, and Vicar’s in Trouble) held the lead after half a mile.

That leaves only two Louisiana Derby winners (International Star and Revolutionary) who were positioned in the back half of the pack after half a mile. Revolutionary’s triumph came in 2013, a year that produced the fastest Louisiana Derby half-mile pace fraction (:46.34) in our sample.

The speed-favoring trend has been particularly pronounced since the Louisiana Derby lengthened from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles in 2020, with three out of four winners leading after half a mile.

Favorites are strong, but don’t dismiss big longshots

By My Standards winning in 2019. (Eclipse Sportswire)

For the most part, the betting public has a good feel for handicapping the Louisiana Derby. Ten of the last 13 winners started at odds of 9-2 or less, which includes six winners who started as the favorite.

But when the public gets the Louisiana Derby wrong, the payoffs can be impressive. In 2012, Hero of Order won the Louisiana Derby at 109.40-1. In 2019, By My Standards took first place at 22.50-1. And longshot runners-up in recent editions of the Louisiana Derby include Ny Traffic (26.70-1) in 2020, Tom’s Ready (30.50-1) in 2016, Mylute (19-1) in 2013, and Nehro (36.20-1) in 2011.

The takeaway? Don’t be afraid to mix and match favorites with unheralded runners. Catch a double-digit longshot in first or second place, and you’ll cash a hefty exacta payoff.

Favor horses with graded stakes experience

It’s uncommon for horses without graded stakes experience to win the Louisiana Derby. Case in point? Six of the last 13 Louisiana Derby winners (Epicenter, Girvin, Gun Runner, International Star, Vicar’s in Trouble, and Revolutionary) had previously won a graded stakes, while another five (Hot Rod Charlie, Wells Bayou, Noble Indy, Hero of Order, and Pants On Fire) had finished fourth or better in a graded stakes.

That leaves only two Louisiana Derby winners since 2011 — maiden winner By My Standards (2019) and allowance-optional claiming winner Kingsbarns (2023) — who entered without previous graded stakes experience. Think long and hard before betting a horse who is making his graded stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby.

Todd Pletcher is the dominant trainer

Fair Grounds isn’t a winter base for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who is busiest in Florida at this time of year. But when Pletcher ships a horse to compete in the Louisiana Derby, it’s wise to pay attention. Pletcher has won the Louisiana Derby five times since 2007, including last year’s edition with Kingsbarns, and during the same timeframe he’s saddled four Louisiana Derby runners-up.

Rosario aboard Epicenter in 2022. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Pay special attention to horses ridden by Joel Rosario

Jockey Joel Rosario has ridden well in recent renewals of the Louisiana Derby. He won back-to-back editions aboard Hot Rod Charlie (2021) and Epicenter (2022), then guided Disarm to finish second in 2023.

Favor horses exiting the Risen Star Stakes or shipping in from out of state

The top local prep race for the Louisiana Derby is the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, which has produced eight of the last 13 Louisiana Derby winners. Four horses (Epicenter, Girvin, Gun Runner, and International Star) managed to complete the Risen Star/Louisiana Derby double.

That said, three of the last four Louisiana Derby winners (Wells Bayou, Hot Rod Charlie, and Kingsbarns) skipped the Risen Star and had never previously run at Fair Grounds. Are we seeing the emergence of a new trend where out-of-state shippers hold an advantage in the Louisiana Derby? It’s a possibility to ponder.

Conclusions

Although a dozen horses were entered in the 2024 Louisiana Derby, there isn’t much speed in the field. Only two of the entrants have ever set the pace in a race, and one of them — #8 Next Level — has raced well off the early lead in his last two starts.

Track Phantom winning Lecomte. (Eclipse Sportswire)

This leaves #12 Track Phantom as the only pure pacesetter in the field. Given how well speed horses (and pacesetters) have fared in recent editions of the Louisiana Derby, Track Phantom would be a logical win threat based on this angle alone. But there are several other positives in his favor.

For starters, Track Phantom has thrived competing on the Road to the Kentucky Derby at Fair Grounds, winning the Gun Runner Stakes and Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes before finishing a close second in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes. The Risen Star winner, Sierra Leone, is skipping the Louisiana Derby, leaving Track Phantom as the top finisher from that key Louisiana Derby prep race.

Furthermore, Track Phantom is slated to be ridden by jockey Joel Rosario. Throw in the fact Track Phantom may start as the Louisiana Derby favorite (and will certainly go off at odds of 9-2 or less), and he matches five of our six historical angles, indicating Track Phantom is hands-down the horse to beat this Saturday.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the Louisiana Derby!