Four Tips to Help You Pick the 2024 Preakness Stakes Winner

Gambling
National Treasure (right) led from the start in the 2023 Preakness Stakes and was all out to hold off Blazing Sevens by a head at the finish and win at odds of 2.90-1.
National Treasure (right) led from the start in the 2023 Preakness Stakes and was all out to hold off Blazing Sevens by a head at the finish and win at odds of 2.90-1. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The 2024 Preakness Stakes will be run Saturday, May 18, at Pimlico in its usual spot on the calendar two weeks after the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. Here are some tips to help you narrow the contenders down to a few best bets for the 149th Preakness based on recent trends that may help point you in the right direction. Best of luck.


Pick a Preakness Contender at a Good Price

War of Will in 2019. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Preakness is often regarded as a chalk players’ haven, but that has not been the case in recent years. Giant longshots rarely win, but you can often still find a good price in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Most recent Preakness winners have paid double-digit prices, including Rombauer who paid $25.60 in 2021, Swiss Skydiver who paid $25.40 in 2020, War Of Will who paid $14.20 in 2019, Cloud Computing who paid $28.80 in 2017, and Oxbow who paid $32.80 in 2013. Everyone remembers that Justify won at 2-5 odds in 2018, American Pharaoh paid $3.80 in 2015, and California Chrome paid $3.00 in 2014, but do you remember that 2022 Preakness winner Early Voting was sent off as the third choice in the nine-horse field and still paid $13.40 to win? Last year’s Preakness favorite, Mage, finished third behind the winner, 2.90-1 shot National Treasure, who topped a seven-horse field and paid a respectable $7.80 to win.

Preakness Tip #1: Most recent winners have landed in the payoff range between $13 and $33 to win.


Bet Horses On or Close to the Pace

American Pharoah in 2015. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The preferred running style for a Preakness contender is a horse that has speed or tactical speed, according to the results from the past several years. Last year, National Treasure went wire-to-wire. In 2022, favored deep closer Epicenter came up short behind Early Voting, who pressed the pace in second most of the race until taking over in the stretch. Almost every recent Preakness winner has raced on or close to the pace. Justify (2018), American Pharoah (2015), Oxbow (2013) and National Treasure all won the race on the front end. Swiss Skydiver (2020), War Of Will (2019), Cloud Computing (2017), California Chrome (2014) and I’ll Have Another (2012) each raced about two lengths off the pace in the early stages. Only Exaggerator (2016), Afleet Alex (2005) and Curlin (2007) were the rare recent examples of horses that won the Preakness with a true late-closing style over the past 20 years. Rombauer in 2021 closed more than most recent winners, rallying from 4 ½ lengths behind in mid-pack. You definitely don’t want your Preakness pick to be racing any further back than that.

Preakness Tip #2: Pace is a major factor in predicting Preakness success. Pick a front-runner or tactical speed horse racing no further back than 4 ½ lengths off the pace.


Preakness Posts Matter (but not how you think)

Most recent Preakness winners and many of the exacta and trifecta finishers of the past several years broke from the outside half of the field. Only four Preakness winners in the last 63 runnings have won from the rail post. That’s 4-for-63 years – not good. National Treasure sent from the rail in 2023 and got away with murder up front, setting modest pace fractions in a small field to prevail. War Of Will won from the rail in 2019, and the rail couldn’t stop Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. Nevertheless, the reality is that in years with larger Preakness fields, the outside posts do better than the inside. The futility of post 1 could just be regarded as just an anomaly, perhaps, if post 2 also wasn’t so awful. Cloud Computing won from post 2 in 2017 and is only the second horse in the last 43 years to win the Preakness from post 2. Additionally, many recent exactas and trifectas have been completed entirely by horses drawn in the outer half of the starting gate.

Preakness Tip #3: A great effort can overcome an outside draw in the Preakness, but horses from posts 1 and 2 should be downgraded in your handicapping.


Lay Off Maryland-Based Horses

It can be tempting to root for a Maryland-based horse in the Preakness, but when it comes to wagering you should resist the urge to do so because it has been 41 years since the last Maryland-based horse won the Preakness Stakes (Deputed Testamony in 1983). The last Maryland horse to hit the exacta in the Preakness was Magic Weisner who outran 45.70-1 odds to finish second in 2002. Since then, times have been tough. Last year’s local hope, Coffeewithchris, was bet down to 10.50-1 odds and finished last of seven. In 2019, Alwaysmining was sent off as the 6.60-1 fourth choice in a 13-horse field but finished 11th. Malibu Moonshine, who finished eighth at 24-1 in 2005, and Water Cannon, who was 10th and last in 2004, are other examples of disappointments the past 20 years.

Preakness Tip #4: Betting Maryland-based horses in the Preakness can be tempting, but they usually are disappointing.

In summary, for handicappers hoping to narrow down the field of contenders when betting the Preakness, the best move is to place your wagers on horses going off at value odds with front-running ability or tactical speed who are not drawn inside in posts 1 or 2. Make good bets on live contenders using these tips, and give yourself the best chance to win.

newsletter sign-up

Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing!

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Instagram TikTok YouTube
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Instagram TikTok YouTube