Whether you like betting on favorites or longshots, the $2 million Grade 1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is the perfect race to play. As counterintuitive as it might seem, it’s a fact backed up by statistics. How can this be? It turns out North America’s championship race for 2-year-old fillies is a haven for both short-priced favorites and massive longshot winners. A quick look through the history of the Juvenile Fillies reveals the details.

What else can historical stats tell us about the Juvenile Fillies? If you want to have the best chance at picking the winner on Nov. 3 at Santa Anita Park, then read on. We’re sharing seven history-driven tips and trends to aid your handicapping.

Favor speed horses and front-runners

Over the last decade, speed has been the key to success in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Eight of the last 12 winners were racing first, second, or third (within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead) after the opening half-mile, with five leading all the way.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting that Ria Antonia (who charged from sixth place in 2013) actually won the Juvenile Fillies via the disqualification of She’s a Tiger, who led from start to finish while carving out the fastest Juvenile Fillies fractions of the last decade (and the12 years in the table below).

Bet jockeys Joel Rosario and Mike Smith

No jockey has enjoyed more success in recent editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies than Joel Rosario. The Eclipse Award-winning rider won the race in 2018, 2020, and 2021 and boasts an overall 3-for-13 record in the Juvenile Fillies.

Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith is another worth following. Smith’s 3-for-12 record in the Juvenile Fillies includes victories in 2008, 2015, and 2017, and his last four mounts have all finished in the top three.

Bet favorites or major longshots

Getting back to the stat we outlined in the intro, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies has historically been kind toward favorites. Indeed, the top betting choice has prevailed in 19 of the 39 editions, an impressive 49% win rate. At the same time, the Juvenile Fillies has produced some of the most staggering upsets in Breeders’ Cup history. In the last decade alone, we’ve seen Caledonia Road (17.30-1), Champagne Room (33.60-1), Take Charge Brandi (61.70-1), and Ria Antonia (32.30-1) trigger shocking results.

What it comes down to is this: a total of 29 winners of the Juvenile Fillies have started at 6.50-1 or less. Another eight winners started at 17-1 or higher, leaving only two winners starting between 7-1 and 16-1. In other words, you don’t want to bet mid-range longshots in the Juvenile Fillies. You want to bet short-priced contenders or major longshots, but rarely anything in between.

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Bet proven Grade 1 performers

It takes a quality filly to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Case in point, 20 of the last 22 winners had previously competed in a Grade 1 race. The two exceptions were Awesome Feather (2010) and Dreaming of Anna (2006), and both entered the Breeders’ Cup undefeated with multiple smaller stakes wins to their credit. When betting the Juvenile Fillies, you don’t want to play an inexperienced filly stepping into stakes company for the first time.

Favor fillies exiting the Frizette

In recent years, the key prep for the Juvenile Fillies has been the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes, run at Aqueduct in 2023, which has produced six of the last 12 winners when traditionally contested at Belmont Park. To put it another way, recent history suggests there’s a 50% chance the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner will exit the Frizette. That’s a strong angle!

Other productive prep races include the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Del Mar Debutante Stakes at Del Mar. Over the last 12 years, the two races have produced three Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winners apiece.

Favor runners drawn in outside posts

It can be tricky for lightly raced horses to work out a comfortable trip while breaking from an inside post position in a large field. Eight of the last 12 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winners started from post-position six or wider, and during the same timeframe only two fillies breaking from the rail have finished in the top three. One of the two was budding superstar Beholder, who secured a clear early lead from the rail on her way to a gate-to-wire victory in 2012.

Experience at the host track isn’t important

Since the Breeders’ Cup travels around the country, it seems logical to favor runners who have experience racing on the main track where the Breeders’ Cup will be held, but familiarity with the host track hasn’t been an important factor in determining the outcome of the Juvenile Fillies. Nine of the last 12 winners were running in a race on the host track for the first time.

Conclusions

Analyze the prospective 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies field through a historical lens, and you’ll reach an unavoidable conclusion. Pending the post-position draw, Tamara is the most likely winner.

Tamara will be the Juvenile Fillies Favorite. (Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire)

Trained by Richard Mandella who has won the Juvenile Fillies three times, Tamara is unbeaten and unchallenged in two starts under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. In her debut at Del Mar, she overcame a stumble at the start to rally from just off the pace and win by 2 1/4 lengths. Then she stepped up in class for the Del Mar Debutante and pressed a fast pace before powering clear to win by 6 3/4 lengths.

So, let’s see how Tamara fits neatly into the history-driven tips and trends listed above. Tamara is a speed horse. She’ll be ridden by Mike Smith. She’ll be favored in the Juvenile Fillies betting. She’s a proven Grade 1 winner. It doesn’t matter that she hasn’t raced at Santa Anita, and while she isn’t exiting the Frizette, the Del Mar Debutante is still a productive Juvenile Fillies prep race.

In short, what’s not to like? As long as Tamara avoids drawing the inside post, she’s an obvious choice to win the Juvenile Fillies. If she does draw post No. 1, she might be good enough to overcome her disadvantage. Plus, did you know Tamara is a daughter of the four-time Eclipse Award champion Beholder?

Just F Y I is the other key contender we must mention. The daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify is 2-for-2 and recently rallied from third place in a six-horse field to dominate the Frizette by 3 3/4 lengths. Just F Y I doesn’t appear to have as much tactical speed as Tamara, but she fits several of the other historical trends and is going to be a short price in the betting, so there’s a lot to like about her chances at the Breeders’ Cup.

Good luck with your handicapping and enjoy the race!