The 2023 Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, will be run Saturday, May 20 at Pimlico in its usual spot two weeks after the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. The Preakness is setting up to feature a mid-size to large field led by Derby champion Mage. If you are a handicapper seeking to bet against the favorite and need some tips on how you can effectively narrow down the Preakness field to only a few top contenders, then read on for three Preakness trends based on recent results that can help lead you in the right direction.

Pick a contender at good odds

2021 winner Rombauer. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Preakness is often regarded as a chalk-players’ haven, but that certainly has not been true in recent years. Giant longshots rarely win, but the fact is you can still get a good price in the Preakness. Justify won at 2-5 odds in 2018 to go along with fellow Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh who paid $3.80 in 2015 and California Chrome who paid $3.00 in 2014, but aside from that trio, most recent Preakness winners have paid double-digit win prices. Swiss Skydiver paid $25.40 in 2020, War of Will paid $14.20 in 2019, Cloud Computing paid $28.80 in 2017, Oxbow paid $32.80 in 2013, and Rombauer paid $25.60 in 2021. Last year’s winner of the 2022 Preakness Stakes was Early Voting, who was sent off as the third choice in the nine-horse field and paid $13.40 to win.

Preakness Tip #1: Most recent winners have landed in the payoff range between $13 and $33 to win, so while you don’t want to stab at improbable longshots, you also don’t want to bet low-priced favorites.

Bet horses that run on or close to the pace

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The preferred running style for a Preakness contender is a horse that runs on or close to the pace, according to the results from the past several years. Early Voting pressed the pace in second most of the race until taking over the lead in the stretch, while heavily favored deep closer Epicenter came up short. Almost every recent Preakness winner has raced up close to the pace. Justify (2018), American Pharoah (2015) and Oxbow (2013) all went wire to wire. Swiss Skydiver (2020), War of Will; (2019), Cloud Computing (2017), California Chrome (2014) and I’ll Have Another (2012) each raced about two lengths off the pace in the early stages. Only Exaggerator (2016), Afleet Alex (2005) and Curlin (2007) were the rare recent examples of horses that won the Preakness with a true late-closing style the past 20 years. Rombauer in 2021 closed more than most recent winners, launching his bid from 4 ½ lengths back in mid-pack. You definitely don’t want your Preakness pick to be any farther back than that.

Preakness Tip #2: Pace is a major factor in predicting Preakness success. Pick a front-runner or a horse that projects to come from no farther back than 4 ½ lengths off the pace.

Preakness post positions matter, but probably not the way you think

2019 winner War of Will. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Most recent Preakness winners and many of the exacta and trifecta finishers of the past several years broke from the outside half of the field, and it is easy to conclude that it has become better to be drawn outside rather than inside in the Preakness. You hear a lot written and said about the inside posts being unfavorable in the Kentucky Derby, but actually the inside posts have been even worse in the Preakness where you definitely don’t want to draw post 1 or 2. War of Will did win from the rail in 2019, but even including that victory along with American Pharoah in 2015, only three Preakness winners in the last 62 runnings of the race won from the rail post – not good. The futility of post 1 could just be regarded as just an anomaly, perhaps, if post 2 also wasn’t so awful. Cloud Computing won from post 2 in 2017, and when he did, he became only the second horse in the last 42 years to win the Preakness from post 2. The moral of the story: Bet against posts 1 and 2. Additionally, many recent exactas or trifectas have been completed entirely by horses drawn in the outer half of the starting gate.

Preakness Tip #3: Don’t bet horses breaking from posts 1 and 2. Give preference to horses from the outer half of the field.

In summary, for handicappers hoping to narrow down the field of contenders when betting the Preakness, the best move is to place your wagers on horses going off at odds of at least 4-1 or better with front-running ability or tactical speed who are not drawn inside in posts 1 or 2. With this as a guide, your handicapping should land you on live contenders and a good bets in the Preakness. Best of luck!