It’s easy to understand why Saturday’s $500,000, Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the 2023 Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF at Santa Anita Park.

Contested at a distance of one mile over Saratoga’s inner turf course, the Fourstardave has been used as a steppingstone to the Breeders’ Cup by five of the last 11 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners: Wise Dan (2012 and 2013), Tourist (2016), World Approval (2016), and Uni (2019).

It’s safe to say the Fourstardave ranks among the most important and influential turf mile races contested in North America each year. The 2023 edition has drawn a seven-horse field featuring two Grade 1 winners, and the battle for supremacy may come down to those two proven top-class competitors.

#6 Casa Creed is the most accomplished runner in the field. During a strong 2022 campaign, he won the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes dashing three-quarters of a mile at Belmont Park, then stretched out in distance to win the Fourstardave by 1 1/2 lengths over 2022 champion female turf horse Regal Glory.

Now seven years old, Casa Creed returns to the Fourstardave in strong form. In the Group 3 1351 Turf Sprint in Saudi Arabia during the winter, he finished second by a head. About 3 1/2 months later, he returned to action in the Jaipur and ran strongly to finish third against a large field.

Casa Creed subsequently relished stretching out over one mile for the Grade 3 Kelso Stakes at Saratoga last month. After settling near the back of a seven-horse field, Casa Creed unleashed a sharp rally to take command in the homestretch and prevail by one length over #4 Annapolis.

Speaking of Annapolis, he’s the second-most accomplished entrant in this year’s Fourstardave field. With six wins and three seconds from 10 starts, Annapolis has proven remarkably consistent while facing strong competition. His only misfire came with a troubled start in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Mile, in which he finished 11th while beaten only 5 1/4 lengths.

As a 3-year-old in 2022, Annapolis showed strong form at Saratoga, finishing second in the 1 3/16-mile Caesars Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes before cutting back in distance to wire the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Saranac Stakes by 5 1/2 lengths. That blowout victory preceded a start against older rivals in the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland, in which Annapolis tracked the early pace before taking command to beat a talented field (including 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Order of Australia) by 1 1/2 lengths.

Annapolis (Coady Photography)

Annapolis started off 2023 on a winning note, rallying from midfield against a slow pace to nab the one-mile Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs. Stepping up in class for the Kelso wasn’t quite as productive, since Annapolis finished second-best against Casa Creed. But whereas Casa Creed received a clean trip racing outside of horses and was able to launch his rally at precisely the right moment, Annapolis spent most of the race trapped in a pocket with nowhere to run. He had to launch his rally later than Casa Creed and was gaining ground through the final furlong.

If Annapolis is able to work out a clear trip in the Fourstardave (perhaps by racing closer to the pace, as he did in the Coolmore Turf Mile), he can turn the tables on Casa Creed and spring a mild surprise under Saratoga’s leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

That’s how we’ll play the Fourstardave. We’ll bet Annapolis on top of exacta and trifecta wagers using Casa Creed, #1 Emmanuel, and #3 My Sea Cottage underneath.

Emmanuel is a four-time graded stakes winner on turf who enters the Fourstardave off a gallant victory in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes racing one mile at Belmont Park. He’s a logical choice to finish third (or maybe even snatch a place in the exacta), but we can’t count My Sea Cottage out of the mix either.

There isn’t a ton of speed in the Fourstardave field, and My Sea Cottage exploited a slow pace in a $50,000 starter allowance racing one mile over the Saratoga turf last month to lead all the way and dominate by 2 1/2 lengths. He’s assigned to carry only 114 pounds in the Fourstardave (10 fewer than Annapolis and 11 fewer than Casa Creed), so My Sea Cottage can hang around for a top-three finish if he’s able to set or press another slow pace on Saturday.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 exacta: 4 with 1,6 ($10)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 9th race, $5 exacta 4 with 1,6

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$10 exacta: 4 with 1,6 ($20)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 9th race, $10 exacta 4 with 1,6

$2.50 trifecta: 4 with 1,6 with 1,3,6 ($10)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 9th race, $2.50 trifecta 4 with 1,6 with 1,3,6

Good luck, and enjoy the race!