Run Classic Has a Legitimate Upset Chance in Louisiana Derby

March 16th, 2021 by Ellis Starr

Wells Bayou leads the field for the 2020 Louisiana Derby into the first turn en route to a front-running victory. (Lou Hodges, Jr. /Hodges Photography)

The $1 million, Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby is the first Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race to offer the winner enough points (100) to guarantee a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. The winner’s share of $1 million isn’t bad either, but in spite of those two incentives only eight horses were entered in Saturday’s 108^th edition of the race.

The two most accomplished runners, Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon, have traded wins on the runup to the Louisiana Derby. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January but ended up third in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford four weeks later, which was won by Mandaloun. Risen Star runner-up Proxy also finished second in the Lecomte and will attempt to turn the tables on his rivals. O Besos finished fourth and nearly six lengths behind third-place finisher Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star and may have his work cut out for him, as may both Rightandjust and Starrininmydreams, who finished sixth and ninth, respectively, in that race. Hot Rod Charlie ships in from California off a big effort when beaten a neck and a nose for the win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park and certainly fits with the best in this field. Last but certainly not least, Run Classic steps into stakes competition off a maiden win over Fair Grounds’ dirt track in his second career start.

Analysis and Main Win Contenders:

It is still early in the season, so much so that horses which have only run a couple of times can win Kentucky Derby prep races like the Louisiana Derby. This was evidenced last weekend when Concert Tour won the Rebel Stakes in only the third start of his career and his first in a two-turn race. Run Classic has already run two turns so distance is not a question, and in that regard he is one step further along as compared to Concert Tour. Run Classic debuted in mid-January in a six-furlong sprint at Fair Grounds and finished second of 10, earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Stretched out to 1 1/16 miles for career start number two four weeks later – on the same day as the Risen Star – Run Classic stalked the pacesetter while third in the early stages, put in a quick burst to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go, then coasted home to an easy 3 ¼-length length win. Although he earned a 90 Equibase Speed Figure, I feel he could have run faster if needed in that race. Putting those figures in perspective, likely Louisiana Derby betting favorite Mandaloun earned a 97 figure winning the Risen Star. Being as Run Classic is more lightly raced, he may have more untapped potential compared to Mandaloun and others who are already proven competitive in similar races. He’s making his third career start and second in a route, and I believe that Run Classic has the talent to leapfrog over more logical contenders and score an upset. That is exactly what By My Standards did in 2019 when he upset the Louisiana Derby at odds of 22.50-1, as he entered the race after breaking his maiden in a route over Fair Grounds’ main track in his prior start. By My Standards was trained by Bret Calhoun, who trains Run Classic, and that is precisely why I’m choosing Run Classic to post the upset win in the Louisiana Derby.

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Hot Rod Charlie entered the TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance at Keeneland last November off a maiden win in a one-mile route at Santa Anita Park. In the Juvenile, his second consecutive start in a dirt route, Hot Rod Charlie finished second at odds of 94.40-1, earning a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Returning for his 3-year-old campaign at the end of January, Hot Rod Charlie proved that his Breeders’ Cup effort was no fluke as he closed to get third in the 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis Stakes after stumbling at the start, missing the win by inches in a three-horse photo. The 97 figure he earned in the Robert B. Lewis can logically by improved upon in his second start off a layoff, so Hot Rod Charlie deserves strong consideration as a contender to win this race.

Mandaloun won the first two races of his career, both sprints, earning a 95 figure in the best of the pair. Stretched out to two turns for the first time in the Lecomte Stakes, Mandaloun was really no threat for wire-to-wire winner Midnight Bourbon but did finish just a head behind runner-up Proxy. There were possible excuses for his performance in the Lecomte, since the winner got an uncontested lead and also already had the experience of running in two-turn races previously. Improving off the experience, Mandaloun turned the tables on Midnight Bourbon to win the Risen Star clearly by 1 ¼ lengths, equaling the 97 figure he earned in the Lecomte. Since the distance of the Louisiana Derby is only one-sixteenth of a mile farther than the Risen Star, I don’t see any issue with Mandaloun running his best Saturday. Whether that best effort is good enough to beat the improving Run Classic and Hot Rod Charlie is the reason why this race will be a great one to watch and wager on.

The rest of the field (with their best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Midnight Bourbon (99), O Besos (94), Proxy (97), Rightandjust (90), and Starrininmydreams (88).

Win Contenders:

Run Classic

Hot Rod Charlie

Mandaloun