Dan’s Double: Horse for Course, Pace Setup Play at Del Mar

Gambling
Turf racing at Del Mar. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, Aug. 22, Del Mar, Race 8, post time 8:30 p.m. ET

weekend TV schedule

Friday, Aug. 21: 1-6 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Aug. 22: 1-4 p.m. ET on FS1; 4-6:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Aug. 23: 1-6 p.m. ET on FS1; post time varies on TVG

#3 Potantico: This is going to be the safer of today’s double and it’s as close to a lock as I think you’ll find on the card. Potantico ran a massive race last out. He was three- or four-wide all the way around and still kicked on to battle with the 4-to-5 favorite Dark Vader (who’s running in the TVG Pacific Classic) all the way to the wire. Potantico’s prior two races at Del Mar were both wins too. He broke his maiden (won his first career race) here by 4 ½ lengths and then scored an allowance victory two races later. Both of those wins came at this mile distance. Also note that this horse had an apprentice rider up for the near-miss last out. On Saturday, he’ll get a huge jockey upgrade to Umberto Rispoli.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$5 to win on #3 Potantico ($5)

$2 double 3 with 3,11 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$10 to win on #3 Potantico ($10)

$5 exacta 3 with 4,5 ($10)

$2 double 3 with 3,11 ($4)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$20 to win on #3 Potantico ($20)

$5 exacta 3 with 4,5 ($10)

$2 exacta 4,5 with 3 ($4)

$5 double 3 with 3,11 ($10)

$2 double 3 with 4,7,8 ($6)

Saturday, Aug. 22, Del Mar, Race 9, $250,000 Del Mar Oaks, post time 9 p.m. ET

#11 Guitty: This looks like one of the best betting races of the day. There’s so much early speed signed up that it seems likely to set up for a horse coming from off the pace. Here’s hoping that horse is Guitty. Included in the pace picture are circuit speedsters #9 Parkour and #10 Laura’s Light. They’re joined by stretching-out frontrunner #5 Aqua Seaform Shame and three-time wire-to-wire winner #6 Trickle In. Though she’s been beaten on several occasions by Laura’s Light, Guitty has had a range of excuses in defeat.

Given a setup in the San Clemente Stakes last out, Guitty ran one of her best career races. She still had to work for it though, as she went wide into the turn for home before sweeping past the entire field with the exception of Laura’s Light. Had they even gone an extra 50 yards, Guitty would’ve gotten by Laura’s Light too. That was the first time Juan Hernandez was aboard Guitty and he really seemed to get a lot more out of her than Brice Blanc had previously. What seems clear is that Guitty is a horse who can make one really nice run during the race. In prior starts, she’d been asked to make middle moves or had been sent too early. If she can bide her time and the pace unfolds as expected, look out.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$2 win, place, show on #11 Guitty ($6)

$2 exacta box: 3,11 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$4 win, place, show on #11 Guitty ($12)

$4 exacta box: 3,11 ($8)

$1 exacta key box 11 with 4,7 ($4)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 to win, $5 to place, show on #11 Guitty ($20)

$5 exacta box: 3,11 ($10)

$1 exacta key box 11 with 4,7,8,10 ($8)

$.50 trifecta 3,11 with 3,8,10,11 with 3,4,7,8,10,11 (12)

Last Week’s Earnings: $138

2020 Earnings: $4,021.68

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