Betting the Soaring Free Stakes on a Budget

Gambling
Ready to Repeat winning the Victoria Stakes at Woodbine
Ready to Repeat winning the Victoria Stakes at Woodbine (Michael Burns)

The $100,000 Soaring Free Stakes Sunday at Woodbine is a key prep race for the Grade 1 Summer Stakes, a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series race Sept. 20 at the Toronto-area track that offers the victor an expenses-paid berth in the $1 million Juvenile Turf Presented by Coolmore America Nov. 6 at Keeneland.

Named in honor of 2004 Canadian Horse of the Year Soaring Free, the 6 ½-furlong turf race drew a field of just five 2-year-olds, which includes a favorite who looks to me to be very tough to beat in this spot.

Ready to Repeat (#1) finished second in his career debut on the synthetic main track at Woodbine. He then led from start to finish to win a five-eighths of a mile turf sprint on the inner course at Woodbine in :55.70, not far off the course record of :55.46. The More Than Ready gelding set wicked quarter-mile fractions of :21.37 and :43.95 in that race and still closed with a final eighth of a mile in 11.75 seconds to finish 1 ¾ lengths clear of runner-up Gretzky the Great (#5), who also is entered in the Soaring Free.

weekend Television schedule

Friday, Aug. 21: 1-6 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Aug. 22: 1-7 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Aug. 23: 1-6:30 p.m. ET on FS1; post time varies on TVG

In his next start, Ready to Repeat returned to the Tapeta Footings main track and scored a front-running, 2 ½-length win in the Victoria Stakes Aug. 2.

Both Gretzky the Great and Into the Sunrise (#4), a July 17 maiden winner at Ellis Park shipping north for Wesley Ward, also have enjoyed success racing on or near the lead, but Ready to Repeat has proved capable of winning even with sustained early pressure and looks like the fastest of that group.

If you believe those three could wear each other down and open the door to a closer coming from off the pace, Gospel Way (#3) and Exceed (#2) fit that profile and would be the beneficiaries of a speed duel. I’m not sold that either one is good enough to win here, however, but perhaps a runner-up finish from either might spice up the payouts. Finding a decent reward in this race is really the main challenge with a short field and a favorite I view as a standout.

Betting Ready to Repeat to win at even-money (his morning-line odds) isn’t something I’d recommend and betting the exacta also looks like a tough proposition because I’m also high on second choice Gretzky the Great (9-5 odds on the morning line). Sure, if Ready to Repeat drifts up to 9-5, he’d offer a little more value in both pools, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.

I’ll attack the race with three options on a $20 budget: an exacta play, a Double play, and a Pick 3 bet in hopes of finding some value on Ready to Repeat.

I thought about keeping it simple with the exacta and just playing Ready to Repeat over Gretzky the Great, but I like Gospel Way enough to use him on a smaller ticket.

For the double and Pick 3, I’ll take a stand against 5-2 favorite There’s No Joe (#2) in Race 4 and also try to beat the top two morning-line choices in Race 5: Mt. Logan (#2) at 2-1 and American Great (#1) at 3-1 odds.

In Race 4, I really like Roger Attfield’s debut runner Pound Green (#3) at 6-1 – he’s a half-brother to 2014 Canadian Horse of the Year Lexie Lou – and also-eligible entrant U S Army Corps (#12), who is listed at 8-1 and would need at least one scratch to draw into the field. I’ll also use Fifth Season (#11) cutting back in distance and switching to the turf at 10-1 odds.

For Race 5, I’ll use a pair of first-time starters in Dolder Grand (#9) and Runninforcover (#3), both of whom I think look like promising prospects and offer some value at 4-1 and 6-1, respectively, on the morning line.

Exacta Strategy on a $20 Budget

$15 exacta: 1 with 5 ($15)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, third race, $15 exacta 1 with 5

$5 exacta: 1 with 3 ($5)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, third race, $5 exacta 1 with 3

Double Strategy on a $20 Budget

$6 double: 1 with 3,11,12 ($18)

(Note: Increase to $10 if 12 does not draw into the field in Race 4, using only 3,11 in second leg)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, third race, $6 double 1 with 3,11,12 OR Woodbine, third race, $10 double 1 with 3,11

Pick 3 Strategy on a $20 Budget

$3 Pick 3: 1 with 3,11,12 with 3,9 ($18)

(Note: Increase to $5 if 12 does not draw into the field in Race 4, using only 3,11 in second leg)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, third race, $3 Pick 3, 1 with 3,11,12 with 3,9 OR Woodbine, third race, $5 Pick 3, 1 with 3,11 with 3,9

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