Best Bets: Pace Factors at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs

Horses compete at Aqueduct during its fall 2018 meet. (Eclipse Sportswire)

America’s Best Racing and handicapper (and avid gambler) Monique Vág team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend.

Vág will identify her top picks as well as at least one longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet. She also will occasionally look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or try to spot a nice opportunity for other wagers.

This Weekend’s Bets

Saturday, Nov. 28

Best Bet

weekend Television schedule

Friday, Nov. 27: 11:30 a.m.-6 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Nov. 28: 11:30 a.m.-6:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Nov. 29: 11:30 a.m.-6:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Churchill Downs, Race 4, 2:27 p.m. EST

#8 Holy Redeemer: There’s lots to like with this colt and he has been very close to breaking his maiden in both career races, finishing second in each. Today he gets to stretch out in distance to try his luck routing for trainer Stanley Hough who is connecting at a 23 percent rate for horses making their first try at two turns. If he's able to work out a stalking trip similar to his most recent race, give this colt a big edge versus this field.

Longshot Play

Aqueduct, Race 10, $100,000 Long Island Stakes, 4:13 p.m. ET

#9 Theodora B.: She comes in very sharp winning two of her last three turf tries, one at Kentucky Downs and one at Woodbine. She’s been the lone speed in her three most recent races versus some quality stakes horses and in a race lacking a ton of early pace, she will be very difficult to track down late if able to rate on the lead. I like her chances at as a longshot to see it through on the front end. Despite meeting a tougher field in terms of quality, she should be up to the task.

Best Bet

Churchill Downs, Race 9, $200,000 Golden Rod Stakes, 4:57 p.m. ET

#8 Simply Ravishing: The only blemish to her name is a fourth-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies where she bobbled at the start but recovered to finish fourth, only two lengths behind the winner. This is a really good spot for her to rebound in a big way and flaunt that early speed we have seen in most of her prior efforts. If she is able to get to the front end and control it, simply put – these other fillies aren’t fast enough to compete.

Despite the short morning line odds and probable price at post, consider singling her in all of your multi-leg wagers.

Longshot Play

Del Mar, Race 7, $200,000 Seabiscuit Handicap, 6:27 p.m. ET

#3 Spirit Animal: This colt draws inside of most of his main rivals and that could really come in handy especially if he attempts to work out a stalking trip. His only prior try versus graded stakes company came back in his 2-year-old campaign where he stumbled the start and was never involved in the race, so it would be unfair to judge him too harshly. If this colt is able to sit back, save some ground and make a late stretch rally he is very capable of a big effort on the move up in class.

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