This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not quite as strong as they previously were.

In the eighth edition of this blog for the 2025 run for the roses, the focus is on the changing landscape of the 3-year-old male division after the last week of action, highlighted by the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the $1 million Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa at Gulfstream Park.

HEATING UP

1. Tappan Street

Eclipse Sportswire

Tappan Street handled his first class test in the Holy Bull Stakes Feb. 1 at Gulfstream Park, stretching out from a seven-furlong debut win to finish second to Burnham Square in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 race in just his second start for trainer Brad Cox. Rather than wheel him back in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes March 1, Cox gave him extra rest and targeted the Florida Derby March 29. The Holy Bull did not look like as strong of a performance when Burnham Square finished three lengths behind Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth, but that result did not matter in the Florida Derby. Tappan Street showed his progression with a 1 ¼-length win over Sovereignty, completing the final three-eighths of a mile in :37.06 and final quarter-mile in :24.91 under Luis Saez. In doing so, Tappan Street held off a 3-year-old in Sovereignty many regarded as a top five or better contender for the 2025 Kentucky Derby and earned a career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure and 96 Equibase Speed Figure. He raced within four lengths of a solid pace in the Florida Derby and still finished very well and he has the pedigree to excel at longer distances – he’s by leading sire Into Mischief out of Virginia Key, who placed in the 1 1/8-mile Gazelle Stakes. Only three starts is a little worrisome and the speed figures came back a bit light, but the norms for Derby contenders are rapidly changing and Tappan Street is a 3-year-old on the rise with both tactical speed and stamina for a Kentucky Derby-winning trainer.

2. Publisher

Coady Media

It’s hard to quantify how much of Publisher’s runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby March 29 at Oaklawn Park was due to improvement and natural progression and how much was because of the incredibly fast pace. The bay colt by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah trailed the nine-horse field through a blistering first quarter-mile in :22.46 and was 16 ½ lengths back after a half-mile as Cornucopian dueled with Southwest Stakes winner Speed King. That taxing early tempo set up the Arkansas Derby ideally for horses coming from off the pace and Sandman and Publisher closed from eighth and ninth to finish first and second, respectively. Publisher (like Tappan Street above) entered his final Kentucky Derby qualifying prep race with only 10 points, needing a top-two finish to secure a spot in the race, and he delivered the best start of his life. He earned a career-best 95 Beyer Speed Figure and equaled a career-top 100 Equibase Speed Figure … not too shabby for a colt who has not won a race in seven starts. My main reason to exercise caution when evaluating his Kentucky Derby chances is that he did not finish the race especially fast with a final eighth of a mile in :13.06 and his last quarter-mile in :26.09. For that reason, I do think the brisk pace softened things up for Publisher. That said, the trainee of Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen earned a place in the Kentucky Derby and a week ago he was barely in the discussion. As a closer, he should be passing horses in the stretch at Churchill Downs but I think the ceiling might be a top-four or top-three finish.

3. Sandman

Eclipse Sportswire

In my view, Sandman is the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby from among my top three this week but I couldn’t justify a higher placing simply because I was already pretty optimistic about his chances. That said, entering the Arkansas Derby March 29 I was beginning to worry just a bit that he might be more of a plodder capable of picking up minor awards but not winning marquee races. He, like Publisher, benefitted from a hot pace in the Arkansas Derby, but Sandman’s résumé is more robust than the runner-up’s record and he finished faster despite being closer to the early leaders. With three wins, including the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby, plus top-three finishes in the Street Sense Stakes, Southwest Stakes, and Rebel Stakes in eight starts, Sandman has a terrific foundation to complement a stamina-laden pedigree (read more about both in his Derby profile). He showed some immaturity when ducking out in the stretch Saturday at Oaklawn, but that can be corrected, and jockey Jose Ortiz thinks he knows why it happened. “He was a little shy from the whip from the left hand. I could see that from the replays the last time,” Ortiz explained. “I tried one time and didn’t try it again. So, he was rolling.” Right now, I have Sandman rated behind Journalism and Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty. He is in my second tier along with several others, including champion Citizen Bull and fellow Santa Anita Derby contender Barnes. I believe Sandman has a legitimate chance to win the Kentucky Derby May 3.

Also eligible: By the time you read this, especially if it is Wednesday, a decision might already have been made on Japan-based Kentucky Derby contender Luxor Café, by American Pharoah. His connections said after Luxor Café’s five-length runaway victory in the Fukuryu Stakes March 29 at Nakayama that a decision on his status for the first jewel of the U.S. Triple Crown would be made April 2. Luxor Café is full-sibling (same sire [father] and same dam [mother]) to Japanese champion and sire Café Pharoah and a half-brother (same dam, different sire) to 2022 champion turf female Regal Glory. He’s bred to be a star and his last four starts, all wins, indicate he is well on his way down the path to stardom. Luxor Café has 70 points on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, so there is a spot in the starting gate May 3 at Churchill if trainer Noriyuki Hori and owner Koichi Nishikawa choose to ship him to the U.S. Judging by his most recent race, if he makes the trip Luxor Café would be dangerous.

COOLING DOWN

1. Disruptor

Coglianese Photos/Gulfstream Park

Coming off a dominant 9 ¼-length win at Gulfstream Park for a trainer, Todd Pletcher, who had won seven of the last 11 editions of the Florida Derby, Disruptor was a buzz horse entering the Florida’s marquee Derby prep and the 3.40-1 second betting choice when the starting gates opened. The Florida Derby was his first start in a stakes race and his one shot to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He could not get the job done in a fifth-place finish, 10 ½ lengths behind winner Tappan Street. Going from a maiden sprint to a Grade 1 race at 1 1/8 miles was a massive test. He still has a terrific future but Disruptor was not yet up to the task Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

2. Madaket Road

BENOIT photo

I will admit, I am all over the map when it comes to Madaket Road – I really can’t figure him out. I didn’t like his third-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 1 at Santa Anita Park but I was very encouraged by his second-place finish in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. I love when Baffert takes the blinkers off his 3-year-olds because it usually means he is seeing promising signs of maturity in the morning, and I was confident he would run his eyeballs out in the Florida Derby with this equipment change. Instead, he ran just OK when fourth, 5 ½ lengths behind winner Tappan Street, and because of that his spot in the Kentucky Derby in peril. He currently ranks 16^th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 46 points, but there are three 100-point races this weekend plus a potential Japan contender and Euro/Middle East qualifier, so there is a good chance Madaket Road will be on the outside looking in after this weekend.

3. Cornucopian

Coady Media

Like Disruptor above, Cornucopian was testing the waters in a Grade 1 stakes on the Kentucky Derby trail after a dominant win in a maiden sprint race and came up short in his late bid to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. That is the only reason he’s on this list. I still very much believe in the talent if this Into Mischief colt. In fact, I might be even higher on Cornucopian’s long-term prospects after he held on for fourth in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby March 29 after setting the pace through a wickedly fast half-mile in :45.21. Cornucopian was not quite ready for prime time on Saturday at Oaklawn Park and that, of course, means he will miss the Kentucky Derby. But we will see him again soon against stakes competition and he’ll be better prepared in his second try.

Of note: You could make a case that Coal Battle lost a little of his luster in a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby March 29 that ended a three-race winning streak, all of which came in Kentucky Derby qualifying races. The Coal Front colt was beaten by seven lengths in defeat and it’s not an ideal steppingstone to the Kentucky Derby, but I do think the fast pace severely hurt Coal Battle’s chances. At the very least, he should get something out of the race in terms of building stamina and he could be better for it in the Kentucky Derby with a solid foundation of eight starts, including one per month for the last seven months.