NBC Sports’ Randy Moss Discusses Pros and Cons of 2026 Kentucky Derby Horses

Racing
Kentucky Derby, NBC, horse racing, Churchill Downs, Randy Moss, analyst, Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, The Puma, Chief Wallabee, Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean, Fulleffort, Emerging Market, Bill Mott, ABR
Kentucky Derby, NBC, horse racing, Churchill Downs, Randy Moss, analyst, Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, The Puma, Chief Wallabee, Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean, Fulleffort, Emerging Market, Bill Mott, ABR (RITP/Eclipse Sportswire)

NBC Sports will again provide extensive coverage of the $5 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve at Churchill Downs on Saturday as well as the $1.5 million Longines Kentucky Oaks, which will be broadcast in prime time the night before.

Oaks coverage will begin on NBCSN and run from 4-8 p.m. ET on Friday before shifting to NBC for the final hour. Post time for the Oaks will be approximately 8:40 p.m. Wall-to-wall Derby coverage will start on NBCSN at noon ET and continue there until 2:30 p.m. before moving to NBC for five hours. Derby post time is set for 6:57 p.m. All coverage will be streamed on Peacock.

Veteran analyst Randy Moss will again play a prominent role for NBC in setting the stage for the opening leg of the Triple Crown and later detailing how the mile-and-a-quarter contest was won. Moss took a deep dive into the 20-horse field during a question-and-answer session conducted on behalf of America’s Best Racing.


PEDULLA: What is your opinion of the Japanese starters, Danon Bourbon and Wonder Dean?

MOSS: Let’s start with Wonder Dean. We can get a reasonably accurate assessment of the UAE Derby simply by comparing it time-wise to the Dubai World Cup. Forever Young actually ran a faster number than the Dubai World Cup in his year winning the UAE Derby, which immediately identified him as a potential superstar. Wonder Dean is sort of middling. I would put him at 25-1 or so for the Kentucky Derby.

PEDULLA: And Danon Bourbon?

MOSS: I wish we had a similar way to judge him but we don’t. Visually, the horse is very impressive. But it’s very difficult to come up with any sort of benchmark to compare him to American horses to really get a line on how good the horse could be. He could be Renegade or Commandment material or he could be a 30-1 shot.

weekend Television schedule

Friday, May 1: 1-2:30 p.m. and 4:30-7:30 p.m. on FS2; 4-8 p.m. on NBCSN; 8-9 p.m. on NBC; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, May 2: 12:30-3 p.m. on FS1; 3-6:30 p.m. on FS2; 12-2:30 p.m. on NBCSN; 2:30-7:30 p.m. on NBC; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, May 3: 1-7 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

PEDULLA: Can Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott win consecutive Derbies?

MOSS: Certainly he could. From all indications, Chief Wallabee has gotten better in his morning training since Mott added blinkers to his equipment and he will run in blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Derby. There was nothing in the Florida Derby to make you confident that Chief Wallabee is a better horse than either Commandment or The Puma. But, keeping in mind that Sovereignty was also beaten in the Florida Derby and that the blinkers might move Chief Wallabee up, I think he deserves to be right in the mix.

PEDULLA: Bill’s son, Riley, has two Derby starters. Is that a sign of things to come for him?

MOSS: Probably so. At the start of his career, he definitely looks as though he might become a chip off the old block. Even though Incredibolt and Albus are going to be relatively long prices in the Derby, Incredibolt looked at least visually impressive in winning the Virginia Derby. For a young guy like that to already have two starters in the Kentucky Derby is pretty cool.

PEDULLA: How do you evaluate Further Ado’s 11-length romp in the Blue Grass Stakes?

MOSS: It was awesome. It was awesome by the clock, it was awesome visually. I hate to detract from the performance on the basis that his two best career races have both been at Keeneland. To me, making judgments like that based on only two races is really using a very small sample size to come to a very important conclusion. We see horses every day run just as well at Churchill Downs as they run at Keeneland. The tracks aren’t substantially different in composition. The big question with Further Ado is he’s not a particularly big, robust horse. Does the magnitude of that win in the Blue Grass adversely affect him in the Kentucky Derby? We’ve seen that happen from time to time. To me, that’s a bigger question than the venue.

PEDULLA: Is Renegade a deserving favorite?

MOSS: That’s the million-dollar question. Visually, Renegade was extremely impressive. He was as impressive in his own way as Further Ado was in the Blue Grass, albeit with a smaller margin of victory (four lengths). The visual dominance that Renegade showed in the Arkansas Derby can also be viewed in the context of the horses he was running against. The speed with which he was rushing by horses in the Arkansas Derby compared to, say, the speed by which Commandment was running by horses in the Florida Derby has to mitigated by the realization that the horses in the Arkansas Derby weren’t as good as the horses Commandment was running against at Gulfstream Park. Also, people are making a huge deal out of Renegade’s final eighth of a mile in 11.84 seconds and it was fast. But a lot of people don’t realize that the stretch run at Oaklawn Park is downhill. From the top of the stretch to the first turn there is about a 10-foot downhill grade. I know this because I was raised at Oaklawn Park. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a chance to win. I’m saying don’t go too overboard on that final fraction.

The Puma (Eclipse Sportswire)

PEDULLA: Will a good start be the key for The Puma?

MOSS: I could tell you that if I knew what the fractional times were going to be. Sometimes a slowish start in the Kentucky Derby can be an advantage if the early fractions are extremely fast. Obviously, you would rather have your horse break alertly from the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby than see your horse break a little sluggishly.

PEDULLA: Are two starts enough for Emerging Market to be ready for the Derby?

MOSS: To me, two starts is a sign of the changing times in Thoroughbred racing. People were saying that three starts for (Triple Crown winner) Justify was a deal-breaker. Obviously, Justify proved that was wrong. It depends on the horse and it all depends on the circumstances behind the abbreviated schedule. If a horse displays a high degree of professionalism despite his inexperience, then I would be inclined not let that bother me. Emerging Market definitely has shown professionalism in his two races. My biggest concern with Emerging Market is just, is he good enough?

PEDULLA: Can Potente give Bob Baffert his seventh win?

MOSS: I’m usually for a Baffert trainee in the Kentucky Derby. Potente will probably be 20-1, maybe even a little bit higher. You can never count Baffert out because he knows how to get his horses to peak on the first Saturday in May or at least to match up with their most recent prep efforts. But I just don’t think the Santa Anita Derby was the strongest of the prep races we saw.

PEDULLA: Can Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy, a son of sprinter Runhappy, get the mile-and-a-quarter distance?

MOSS: I would have said in February that he would have very little chance of getting a mile and an eighth effectively, much less a mile and a quarter. But, if you didn’t know anything about So Happy’s pedigree and you watched the Santa Anita Derby, you really wouldn’t have that much of a concern about his chances to stretch out.

Albus (Coady Media)

PEDULLA: Is there one horse, or maybe a few horses, that you feel certain will get the distance?

MOSS: I have very few horses in the Kentucky Derby that I’m concerned about getting the mile and a quarter. Albus, for example, is by Yaupon, who was a sprinter, and most of Yaupon’s offspring have been better in sprints. And yet Albus came from 11 lengths back and won the Wood Memorial Stakes. He won a very slow Wood Memorial, but he won the Wood Memorial. To me, this is not a Kentucky Derby where you have a bunch of horses in there that you can discount because of pedigree.

PEDULLA: There is renewed discussion about changing the Triple Crown format. Where do you stand on that?

MOSS: The same people who bellyache about tradition and about how you shouldn’t be messing with the Triple Crown and its current format – three races in five weeks – are by and large stuck in the 1970s and the 1980s. They are the same people that are probably still against night baseball and the three-point shot in basketball. Every sport has to modify based on what the current evidence is. In most cases, I’m willing to look at differing opinions, whether it be politics or anything else. To me, three races in five weeks shouldn’t even be a debate. Kentucky Derby winners are skipping the Preakness Stakes because of two weeks. If you can’t protect the integrity of the Triple Crown because you’re stuck in the mode that it should stay exactly the same as it was in 1969, then you shouldn’t have a vote.

PEDULLA:  How about a live longshot?

MOSS: A live longshot, especially for the superfectas and things like that, I think would be Fulleffort, the winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks. If you remember last year, Brad Cox had a horse who was a big price called Final Gambit, who won the Jeff Ruby and finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby for a pretty nice superfecta. Fulleffort has the same kind of running style.

PEDULLA: How about your top four?

MOSS: I think it comes down, actually, to five horses. Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, The Puma and Chief Wallabee. I might make a decision on Oaks Day. 

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