Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money. Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

The Churchill Downs fall meet comes to a climax on Thanksgiving weekend with a blowout of the season’s remaining stakes races before the end of the meet. Saturday’s 12-race Churchill Downs card contains four stakes races headlined by the Grade 2 $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes for 2-year-olds, but that race isn’t the only game in town. For this weekend’s winners, let’s delve deeper into a pair of the supporting stakes races on the card including the $225,000 Fern Creek Stakes for 2-year-old filly sprinters and the $400,000 Golden Rod Stakes for 2-year-old fillies on the road to next spring’s Longines Kentucky Oaks. If we can pair up the winners of these races along with our pick of Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club, we will be well on our way to a winning day at Churchill Downs this Saturday. Best of luck and have a happy Thanksgiving weekend.

Saturday, Nov. 29

Churchill Downs, Race 8, $225,000 Fern Creek Stakes, post time 4:25 p.m. ET

The Fern Creek Stakes has drawn a 10-horse field of 2-year-old filly sprinters ready to race 6 ½ furlongs. The pick is #7 On Time Girl, who looms as the speed of the race for leading trainer Brad Cox. On Time Girl exits a second-place finish in the $250,000 Myrtlewood Stakes where she lost by just a length after dueling for the lead twice with two separate rivals. The pace setup in this race looks kinder to On Time Girl and she could go all the way. She will need to turn the tables on #6 A Fine Chardonnay, who won the Myrtlewood Stakes with a rally from off the pace to improve her record to 2-for-2. A Fine Chardonnay also beat #3 Woodstock in the Myrtlewood and belongs on exacta and trifecta tickets. Finally, you can round out exactas and trifectas with #1 Solemn Vow, who blew away Keeneland maidens last time with a strong speed figure after showing good speed in a maiden race won by A Fine Chardonnay in her start before that win. Solemn Vow could send for the lead and blow up the pace in this race but did better last time when instead able to rate off the pacesetters.

The Play: Bet on #7 On Time Girl (3-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 Solemn Vow (6-1), and #6 A Fine Chardonnay (5-2).

Churchill Downs, Race 11, $400,000 Golden Rod Stakes, post time 5:54 p.m. ET

The Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes has assembled a 13-horse field of 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles in an early prep for next spring’s Kentucky Oaks. The big favorite is the Bob Baffert trained #12 Explora, who didn’t get any breaks in the post-position draw out in the parking lot on the far outside in post 12. She’s the horse to beat based on her win the Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes Presented by Oak Tree Racing Association and her solid runner-up performance in the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last time out, so we’ll use her on all tickets but try to beat her in win bets at low morning line odds of just 7-5. There are many other fillies in this field with a lot of upside led by #6 Life of Joy, who comes into the Golden Rod with a 2-for-2 record including a victory last time in Churchill’s $200,000 Rags to Riches Stakes where she chased a slow pace and still prevailed. Like Explora, Life of Joy is already a stakes winner at this 1 1/16-mile distance, and with a likely live pace setup in this race, she should be in position to challenge Explora for the win at better odds of 4-1. If you are looking for a horse at a price in this field that can bump up the value of your exacta and trifecta boxes, #1 Baracca seems like the right play. She also enters this race with a 2-for-2 record (both wins at Churchill Downs) and stands a chance to show further improvement in this first career stretchout to a two-turn route for trainer Brendan Walsh.

The Play: Bet on #6 Life of Joy (4-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 Baracca (15-1) and #12 Explora (7-5).