Byron King’s Derby Dozen for March 23

Racing
Horses race in the 2017 UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse. (Eclipse Sportswire)

BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his latest Derby Dozen for 2022, with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 7.

There were no qualifying points preps for the Kentucky Derby last weekend, but this weekend activity picks up with the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby and the UAE Derby Sponsored by Mubadala scheduled for Saturday, March 26, and the Sunland Park Derby set for Sunday, March 27.

Check out America's Best Racing's Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.


1. Zandon 

Run as a Grade 2 since 2017, the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes regains top-level graded status for 2022. This year, it should be worthy of that elevated grade with this colt, Smile Happy, and Classic Causeway a few of those under consideration to the April 9 race at Keeneland. Zandon has not won stakes like others in the Dozen, but he came close to doing so – he was bumped and impeded when second by a nose in the Remsen Stakes, though New York stewards made no change to the order of finish. His lone start of 2022 was a slow-start third in the Feb. 19 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford.


Eclipse Sportswire

2. Smile Happy 

After considering both the April 2 Curlin Florida Derby and Blue Grass, trainer Kenny McPeek has opted for Blue Grass, per Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman in a March 21 tweet. The move isn't a surprise. This colt broke his maiden at Keeneland, and the Lexington track is a regular focus for his trainer, who went to college just down the road at the University of Kentucky. The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner and Risen Star runner-up finished just head of stablemate Rattle N Roll  while traveling easier in a joint five-furlong drill in :58.81 March 19 at Gulfstream Park.


Eclipse Sportswire

3. Messier 

His owners have remained loyal to embattled trainer Bob Baffert, but barring an 11th-hour court ruling that grants Baffert a stay of a 90-day suspension issued by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, this colt will need to start for another trainer if he runs as intended in the April 9 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. A barn switch would allow this colt to earn Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifying points, per Churchill Downs rules, opening the door for him to make the Derby. Messier could climb even higher in the rankings in the coming weeks as his outlook becomes more apparent.


BENOIT photo

4. Forbidden Kingdom

Due to running a temperature last week, he missed a workout at Santa Anita Park, which would have been his first since a frontrunning romp in the March 5 San Felipe Stakes. Should he resume breezing this week, it likely should not set him back too much, trainer Richard Mandella believes. A showdown with Messier looms in the Santa Anita Derby. They've met before, with Messier beating him in the Bob Hope Stakes last fall at Del Mar in a seven-furlong sprint.


Eclipse Sportswire

5. Epicenter 

Nipped by Call Me Midnight after setting fast splits in the Lecomte Stakes, he set a more comfortable pace in the Risen Star and was uncatchable. Now he's favored to repeat in the March 26 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, where he again appears to be the controlling speed. The Kentucky Derby could present a different scenario with a speedball like Forbidden Kingdom is in the mix.


6. White Abarrio 

He closed at 22.90-1 odds in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager that concluded March 13 – perhaps out of sight, out of mind with bettors after laying low following a win in the Feb. 5 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. Some future-wager bettors may not have liked that this colt's only loss came at Churchill when third in the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall. He received a learning experience kind of trip that day, eased off the speed and bottled up in traffic until the stretch.


Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo

7. Simplification 

He resumed breezing Saturday at Gulfstream after his victory in the March 5 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes, covering five furlongs in 1:01.81, an easy work one would expect for a horse that has kept an active racing schedule through the entire winter. Trainer Antonio Sano's last Fountain of Youth winner, Gunnevera in 2017, finished third in the Florida Derby. This colt is much more tactical than that late-running type.


Eclipse Sportswire

8. Classic Causeway

He was lengths the best in two starts this winter in Florida, winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, though neither race drew a stellar field. That leaves his upcoming start in a race such as the Blue Grass as a defining race for where he stands with some of the division's elite. Last year at age 2, he faced very good company, hitting the board in both the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity and Kentucky Jockey Club.


9. Mo Donegal 

He scratched from the Fountain of Youth after drawing the outside post and running a fever, and returned to the worktab this past Saturday with a :49.41 half-mile move in tandem with Emmanuel at Palm Beach Downs. Trainer Todd Pletcher figures to tighten the screws further with two more breezes leading toward the Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino April 9 at Aqueduct, where he edged Zandon in the Remsen last December.


Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo

10. Emmanuel

Take note of his troubled fourth in the Fountain of Youth. After flashing speed in winning his first two starts against easier company, he was off poorly and then lost ground with a wide trip. With just five Derby points, he needs to pick up a bunch of them in the final round of preps but has the talent to do so and continue his march to Louisville. This past Saturday at Palm Meadows, he and Mo Donegal worked head to head in a half-mile work with a spirited gallop out.


11. Morello 

Mo Donegal will find this colt waiting for him when he makes his way to New York for the Wood. Morello is 3-for-3, topped by a 4 ½-length victory in the one-mile Gotham Stakes as trainer Steve Asmussen has gradually stretched him out with each race. Now comes a two-turn test over 1 1/8 miles in the Wood, a race also expected to lure Withers Stakes winner Early Voting.


Coady Photography

12. Rattle N Roll

Though he was a little behind Smile Happy at the finish of a breeze at Gulfstream this past weekend, he stayed competitive, perhaps indicative he is fitter after a comeback sixth in the Fountain of Youth, which followed a five-month layoff. Let's not forget this colt is a Grade 1-winning router at Keeneland with past success at Churchill Downs. Returning on three weeks rest in the Louisiana Derby, he didn't catch all that much speed help to soften Epicenter for his rally. Otherwise, the horse looks ready for a favorable showing.

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