#TheAction: Adjusted True Odds

04.25.2017

BASIC ACTION: There are so many variables that go into how a race might unfold: pace, distance, surface, equipment changes, the track, the jockey, the trainer, the owner, a horse's pedigree and so on.

Understanding what combination of factors is most favorable in a particular race (becuase there are so many different types of races) takes experience and analysis. But TRUE ODDS on STATS Race Lens allows the user to cut through a lot of the confusion and simplifies the process. For enhanced accuracy in factoring in the most important variables in a race, there's a tool on STATS called ADJUSTED TRUE ODDS.

On a track where speed is holding up, Adjusted True Odds allows the user to increase the importance of speed in upcoming races. If the race is being run on a course with a unique configuration that some horses might be more adept at than others, the track/course variable can be adjusted to reflect greater importance. STATS then crunches the numbers with the adjusted variables and produces a fresh set of win probability percentages, or Adjusted True Odds.

ADVANCED ACTION: Clicking on the Adjust Win% Probability Factors button on the True Odds screen launches the slider interface. If you have the slider sets on, the slider settings displayed will be determined by the first filter set on the list with matching criteria. If all of the slider sets are toggled off, the Adjusted True Odds will match the True Odds column.

To use the interface to create your own filter sets, click on the Add Set button. Choose filter criteria from the Surface, Age, Distance, etc. drop-down menus to create a filter set for a race type of your choosing matching the selected criteria. Use the lower section to set the slider settings at the levels you determine they should be in general for that matching set of criteria, then click the Save button. Close the interface, then launch it again using the Adjust Win% Probability Factors button. Click on the Edit Set button, then scroll down the list of filter sets to view your newly created filter set. Click and hold on the filter set row and move the row up the list to the priority level you wish to place it and click on Save.

Although filter sets will be activated when there is matching criteria, you still have the option to adjust the sliders on a race-by-race basis. Click on Adjust Win% Probablity Factors, then move the sliders to the desired positions for a particular race. (Note: adjusting the slider manually will override the matching filter set and it can't be reset for that particular race.)

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