Secretariat, the Preakness, and a 39-Year Controversy

Welcome to 2025 Triple Crown Prospect Profiles, where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the U.S. Classics trail, with the focus this week on the 150th Preakness Stakes May 17 at Pimlico.
The field for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness will be finalized Monday night and one of the new shooters who did not compete in the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve will be this week’s focus. Let’s take a closer look at Gosger, a two-length winner of the $400,000 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes on April 12 at Keeneland Race Course.
Racing Résumé: Gosger has yet to run a bad race in three starts. He got a belated start to his career, debuting Dec. 14, 2024, in a sprint at Gulfstream Park and rallying for second. The Nyquist colt then pressed the pace when stretching out to a mile at Gulfstream Park and won by 1 ½ lengths Feb. 15 in his first race at 3.
Gosger took a significant step forward in his third start, which was his first try against stakes competition in the Lexington Stakes. Gosger got a dream trip stalking the pace while saving ground behind a moderate fractions under Irad Ortiz Jr., moved a few paths to the outside entering the stretch at Keeneland, and surged clear to win by two lengths. He finished significantly faster than he had in his previous win, completing the last three-eighths of a mile in :37.62 and the final furlong in :12.88. That is a real positive sign for a 3-year-old in his third start.
Speed Figures: While the Lexington Stakes win was a huge jump in class, the result did not lead to an improvement in speed figures. Gosger improved from a 73 Beyer Speed Figure for his career debut to an 88 for his maiden win in February and then essentially paired it with an 87 for the Lexington Stakes. His Equibase line is very similar 80-94-96. That might not be a bad thing for the Preakness, though, as Gosger could (and probably should) improve with five weeks rest in his third start of the year.
Running Style: There are multiple speed horses in the Preakness and a couple of off-the-pace runners. Probable favorite Journalism is a stalker, like Gosger, and both of them (along with River Thames) could benefit from an ideal trip tucked in just behind the speed and well ahead of the closers. The dream trip Gosger benefitted from in the Lexington Stakes could repeat in the Preakness under new jockey Luis Saez.
Pedigree Notes: Gosger is from the fifth crop of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, sire of 2-year-old filly champions Immersive and Vequist along with several Grade 1 winners around two turns such as Randomized, Slow Down Andy, and Johannes.
Gosger was produced by the unraced Tapit mare Gloria S. Tapit is one of the best stamina sires on the planet and Gloria S produced 2020 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes winner Harvey’s Lil Goil. Gloria S also is a half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another.
There is plenty of class and stamina to dream on within this pedigree.
Preakness Potential: On paper, Gosger is not fast enough to win the Preakness Stakes, but he is eligible to improve in the fourth start of his career. Whether or not a significant step forward would be enough to make him a win candidate looms the key question.
I think there is significant untapped potential in Gosger, he could get a dream trip in the Preakness, and I think he’s built for the 1 3/16-mile distance. I don’t think he’s good enough to beat Kentucky Derby runner-up Journalism if he brings his “A” game (or even B+), but I do think he could round out the exacta in the Preakness. That would be a heck of a result for a 3-year-old in his fourth race.