We’re well in the thick of prep season now for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, and both the points leaderboard standings and the roster of top contenders based on poll results are in flux, caused in part by the underwhelming return of 2023 champion juvenile Fierceness to the track two weeks ago in the Holy Bull Stakes and also to a degree by a recent decision from the Derby’s host track.

Things are about to change, however, starting this weekend. On Saturday, Feb. 17, Fair Grounds will host the Risen Star Stakes, the first prep race on Churchill Downs’ calendar that offers the top five finishers 105 points good for a down payment on a starting-gate berth in the 150^th Derby on May 4. After that, the schedule is largely comprised of races either at the 105-point level or, starting in late March, contests that offer 200 qualifying points to the top five finishers. That means there’s no better time than now to research and select good overlays on the future-book sheets and put your money down on a fixed-odds wager.

For the past three months, Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas has been releasing weekly future books on the Kentucky Derby. Like many other bookmakers, Caesars has expanded its reach out into several other states after sports gambling has become legal, including Kentucky last fall where it has partnered with Keeneland Race Course and The Red Mile harness track in Lexington. However, as of this writing, only Caesars’ Nevada book is offering fixed-odds future wagers on the Kentucky Derby. The same is true – again, as of this writing – for other platforms that offer Derby futures and have launched in the Bluegrass state and elsewhere.

In addition to the Vegas futures, Churchill Downs will open the fourth of six Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools starting on Friday, Feb. 16 at noon ET and closing Sunday, Feb. 18. (Notably, this pool will close prior to the start of the Sunland Park Derby in New Mexico, a minor Kentucky Derby points prep on Sunday evening.) Morning-line odds for the 40 entries in the pool begin with “All Other 3-year-olds” at 2-1 and with Locked, winner of last fall’s Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and third in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA, as the leading individual horses at 10-1.

Feb. 14 Caesars Sportsbook Odds Leaders to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby:

1. Dornoch (8.5-1)

2. Sierra Leone (9.5-1)

3. Fierceness (10-1)

4. Track Phantom (12-1)

5. Locked (15-1)

Dornoch (inside) over Sierra Leone in Remsen. (Jetta Vaughns/NYRA)

Recent developments: “Unsettled” is definitely the word du jour in Kentucky Derby future betting when it’s mid-February and the top two choices on the Vegas books have not made a start in 2024. Sierra Leone is slated to return in Saturday’s Risen Star, while Dornoch is on tap to make his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes March 2 at Gulfstream Park. There’s no doubt that both colts flashed the sort of potential in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes last December at Aqueduct that gets Derby dreamers excited; it was only runner-up Sierra Leone’s second career start and Dornoch’s fourth. But getting current odds less than 10-1 on the pair – or even 20-1 – makes one think of Flavor Flav’s advice circa 1988 rather than about plunking down some dough. We’ll know a lot more about these exceedingly well-bred runners in two weeks’ time. Sierra Leone in particular is facing a very tough field for his comeback.

The same opinion goes double for Locked, who missed his planned return from winter break in last Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs due to an elevated temperature. As of this writing, his next start is to be determined, with trainer Todd Pletcher telling Daily Racing Form on Feb. 14 that he would have a firmer grasp of where Locked would race after the colt breezed on Feb. 16. Keeping that in mind, 15-1 at Caesars and 10-1 opening Churchill’s pool are “leap of faith” odds exemplified.

From the group of 3-year-olds that have recently competed in Derby points preps, Southwest Stakes first- and third-place finishers Mystik Dan and Liberal Arts catch the eye at odds of 85-1 and 75-1, respectively. Mystik Dan’s 110 Equibase Speed Figure earned in his eight-length win at Oaklawn Park is impressive even if it may have been slop-aided, and if it indeed establishes a new baseline for his future races (which is, of course, to be determined), then 85-1 odds for Derby day is well worth the gamble. As for Liberal Arts, that Arrogate colt made his first start in the Feb. 3 Southwest since late October of last year, when he won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs. He was getting into gear late at Oaklawn Park and should move forward from that effort in his final Derby prep, slated to be the Arkansas Derby. Mystik Dan opens at 20-1 in Churchill Downs’ upcoming Derby pool and Liberal Arts is 60-1.

(Just Steel, runner-up in the Southwest Stakes as well as the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn back on New Year’s Day, is getting 75-1 at Caesars and opens at 80-1 at Churchill. I figure that D. Wayne Lukas will “coach” this runner any and every way possible to make the 150^th Derby field. I also think Just Steel will ultimately have his greatest success as a sprinter-miler.)

Of note: Maybe the biggest reason the Kentucky Derby picture seems blurry on all levels right now is that turf writers, odds makers, bettors, and fans are still adjusting to the 1-2 punch of Churchill Downs reaffirming its stance to ban Bob Baffert-trained horses from competing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and Baffert’s owners collectively telling the Central Ave. behemoth, “OK, then,” and keeping all of their Derby hopefuls with the SoCal lightning rod. Unbeaten Nysos, who dominated his 3-year-old bow in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park, would easily lead all current fixed-odds future books as it stands right now and probably be a morning-line Derby tout in Churchill’s Feb. 16-19 pool in the range of 6-1 as well, if eligible. Baffert trainees Muth and Maymun – the latter a late-developing two-time winner already in 2024 – would also rank high. Instead, there’s shaping up to be a Baffert-sized black hole in this year’s Kentucky Derby lineup, and it will be interesting to see if any horse based in Southern California and trained by someone else comes out of Santa Anita Park’s remaining two prep races to secure a starting-gate berth in Derby 150.

Four to consider:

Capital Idea (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

Capital Idea: This Classic Empire colt nearly won his debut going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct back in December, finishing third by a half-length. He took to a sloppy track at the Big A with relish in his second start Jan. 28, closing with a sustained drive in midstretch to win by 8 ¼ lengths for owner Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and trainer Christophe Clement. In my first Derby Futures blog for 2023-24, I highlighted Clement-trained Otello as a contender to watch and possibly make a future wager on, and felt validated when that colt won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year’s Day. Otello did not progress, however, in his second start of 2024 and was not a factor in the Holy Bull. Perhaps Capital Idea can give Clement another shot at the Derby; he’s got a decent pedigree for handling more distance being out of a Distorted Humor mare that won at 1 1/16 miles and with a second dam (maternal grandmother) who won a Grade 3 stakes at a mile. Currently, he’s pegged at 125-1 odds on Caesars’ book, and opens at 80-1 Friday in Churchill Downs’ pool.

Good Money: He’s got a lot of maturing to do in a short amount of time to make the Kentucky Derby, but this Chad Brown trainee impressed in his first outing Jan. 26 at Tampa Bay Downs, stalking the pace early, moving out from an inside path entering the turn, and then striking the front in midstretch and keeping an odds-on favorite at bay to win a seven-furlong sprint by a length. Good Money is a son of Brown-trained Good Magic, a champion at age 2, runner-up in the 2018 Derby at age 3, and now a sire of a Derby winner in last year’s hero Mage. Like Capital Idea, this colt is out of a Distorted Humor mare, in this case one who did not race. However, his third dam (maternal great-grandmother) is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil, making Good Money a member of a female family rich in stamina (last year’s Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo also is a relative). Worth considering at 150-1 odds via Caesars.

Goldbrick edges Crushed It at Oaklawn. (Coady Photography)

Goldbrick and Crushed It: This pair finished 1-2 in a one-mile maiden race on a sloppy track Jan. 5 at Oaklawn Park and are listed at odds of 125-1 and 100-1, respectively, by Caesars. They were clearly the best in the 1 1/16-mile test, finishing 8 ½ lengths clear of the third-place horse. Crushed It, favored at 9-10, set a pressured pace and kept on gamely after dispatching the longshot that had kept him company, while 5-2 second choice Goldbrick had a perfect trip in third through the backstretch, saving ground under Francisco Arrieta, before moving up to engage Crushed It in midstretch and then prevailing by a neck. This race was Goldbrick’s fourth career start and second at Oaklawn, and it was Crushed It’s second appearance on the Hot Springs, Ark., track and first going two turns after he also finished second by a neck in his six-furlong debut last December.

Crushed It is getting more support on Caesars’ latest Derby future book – 100-1 vs. Goldbrick at 125-1 – and that seems appropriate since he’s trained by Brad Cox for longtime client Richard Klein. The colt is by Florida Derby winner Dialed In and out of the multiple stakes-winning mare Pinch Hit, by Harlan’s Holiday, who was also owned and bred by the Klein family and was a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. Goldbrick is by Santa Anita Derby and two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents and is a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to millionaire router Mr. Wireless (notably sired by Dialed In). Goldbrick does not have a published workout for trainer Bret Calhoun since his win in early January, while Crushed It has a couple of breezes at Oaklawn on his ledger for Cox.

Of note: Two Steve Asmussen trainees – Valentine Candy and Booth – ran lights out at Oaklawn recently, but as of now the Hall of Famer seems to be taking a patient approach with them in regard to attempting more distance. Valentine Candy (125-1 at Caesars) has won three sprint stakes in a row, most recently the Feb. 1 Ozark Stakes by 2 ½ lengths, and appears to be established on that track going forward, even though he’s sired by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Booth (150-1), who first made waves with a blowout maiden win at Keeneland last fall, made his first start since a November dud at Churchill Downs on Feb. 11 in a six-furlong allowance-optional claiming race. He was very impressive off the bench, rolling to a 4 ¼-length score. Asmussen told Oaklawn Park’s media office that he would consider stretching Booth out in his next start and would keep the two runners – who are owned by partnerships with many of the same members in common – separate. This colt is a son of Asmussen-trained champion sprinter Mitole and is a relative of champion sprinter and Hall of Fame member Housebuster on his dam’s side, so perhaps his most plausible path to greatness will be capped at one turn as well. Meanwhile, Asmussen’s colt Hall of Fame is sitting at 18-1 on Caesars’ latest sheet, and coming off of a blowout maiden win is primed for a class hike in the Risen Star. Right now, those odds are way out of whack for this ambitiously named son of Gun Runner. We’ll see if that changes Saturday.