The road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve makes its final stop in the Sunshine State Saturday evening when the 73^rd running of the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa will be held at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach. This race takes the top prize in producing Kentucky Derby winners throughout the years, as 25 horses have come out of the Florida Derby and gone on to wear the garland of roses at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, more than any other prep race. That includes Mage last year, who finished second to Forte in the Florida Derby and then rallied to take the Kentucky Derby for his overjoyed connections.

Given its history and influence, this year’s Florida Derby demands close scrutiny. Eleven 3-year-olds, all based in Florida, are entered to compete for 200 total qualifying points good to reserve a spot in the starting gate for the 150^th Kentucky Derby on May 4. The 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby will be televised live on CNBC and FanDuel TV and streamed on Peacock, with a scheduled post time of 6:42 p.m. ET. It will also be showcased in a livestream produced by America’s Best Racing and available on its social media channels along with Gulfstream Park’s social media channels, starting at 5 p.m. ET.

Here are five questions that must be answered about this group of Kentucky Derby prospects that will be making their final attempts to earn a trip to Louisville.

1. Can champion Fierceness regain his shine?

Mike Repole’s charge was one of the standouts during the two-day Breeders’ Cup World Championships last fall, obliterating a very strong field of 2-year-olds by 6 ¼ lengths in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA at what were, in retrospect, ridiculous 16.50-1 odds. He then spent the winter at the top of future books for the ’24 Derby, and accordingly, the Todd Pletcher trainee was heavily backed by bettors for his return in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, going off at 1-5 odds against six opponents that did not appear to be in the same stratosphere as him talent-wise. After being jostled between runners at the start, Fierceness secured a good position to the outside of pacesetter Hades and moved up to bid for the lead on the far turn of the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull, but he had no punch at the top of the stretch and finished third. It was a disappointing damper on high expectations for his 3-year-old bow – yet Fierceness is favored yet again on the morning-line for the Florida Derby at 8-5 odds. That’s a testament to how highly regarded this colt has been over the past several months, and indeed there is good reason to expect a turnaround. Fierceness had a rough start in the Holy Bull and very well could have, to use the standard backstretch parlance, “needed a race” to help him build fitness in preparation for the months ahead. By all accounts, Fierceness has been training exceptionally well at Palm Beach Downs since the Holy Bull, so there don’t appear to be any excuses remaining to pass off another subpar performance, even if he did draw an outside post (number 10). Of course, every racehorse reaches his or her ceiling at some point in their career – and the Florida Derby should be when we find out whether Fierceness topped out last fall at Santa Anita Park or will be one of those rare BC Juvenile winners with staying power.

2. Which horse(s) can challenge Hades on the front end?

Despite entering the Holy Bull Stakes unbeaten in two starts at Gulfstream, Hades was overshadowed along with the rest of the field by Fierceness and went off at 9.20-1 odds. He was quickly sent to the lead by Paco Lopez and then relaxed into a comfortable cruising rhythm, getting away with slow fractions through the middle of the race. Lopez executed a stellar ride on Hades and he had plenty of stamina left to turn back Fierceness and then hold subsequent Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product at bay in the final yards. The Florida-bred gelding aced his class test after winning a maiden-optional claiming race and then an allowance race restricted to state-breds, and like Fierceness he’s been training well for his final Derby prep in Gulfstream’s biggest race. There’s no reason to expect Lopez, back aboard, to try anything different Saturday, and drawing post-position two should work to Hades’ advantage as he tries to lead the field from start to finish again. The two X-factor horses that could keep him company on the front end, in my opinion, are Le Dom Bro and Seminole Chief. Seminole Chief exits a front-running win in a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race at Gulfstream that was held on the all-weather track after being washed off the turf, while Le Dom Bro pressed highly-rated Dornoch early in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes March 2 on Gulfstream’s dirt and held on to finish second at 1 1/16 miles. That was by far Le Dom Bro’s best race, and I expect jockey Edwin Gonzalez to be even more aggressive with him in the Florida Derby.

3. Will Conquest Warrior justify the hype?

Conquest Warrior (Lauren King/Coglianese Photo)

Somewhat surprisingly, Conquest Warrior is the 3-1 second betting choice on the Florida Derby morning line, just ahead of 7-2 Hades. That’s despite having earned a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of only 85 in his last start on March 1 at Gulfstream, compared with Hades’ 97 and 95 earned in his past two outings. With this City of Light colt, the support comes down to pedigree, his Hall of Fame trainer’s reputation, and an expectation of more improvement to come. While Conquest Warrior’s dam was a stakes-winning sprinter, he comes from an extended female family that includes plenty of stamina and even more class. Furthermore, trainer Shug McGaughey simply does not force a horse onto the Kentucky Derby timeframe unless they’re ready – he’s had just five starters since 1989 with a record of 1-2-1, the winner coming in 2013 with Orb. While Conquest Warrior did not dazzle the speed figure makers back on the first of the month, he looked the part of a two-turn horse once angled out by jockey Jose Ortiz on the far turn of the 1 1/8-mile allowance-optional claiming race, drawing clear of second betting choice Merit to win by five lengths at 3-5 odds. This colt still showed some greenness in the stretch, switching leads a couple of times before Ortiz geared him down. Now, the big test awaits, and Conquest Warrior’s morning-line odds seem awful low stepping up to a Grade 1 race, even if, aside from Fierceness and Hades, the field lacks pizzazz. With zero points banked, he’ll need to win the Florida Derby to lock up a starting-gate spot in the Kentucky Derby, and based on the evidence at hand, Conquest Warrior’s best form looks to be a few months and races in the future.

4. Does a longshot stand a chance at the upset?

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Three Florida Derby starters carrying double-digit morning-line odds – the aforementioned Le Dom Bro (15-1), Frankie’s Empire (12-1), and Real Macho (20-1) – are coming back after finishing second, third, and fourth, respectively, in the Fountain of Youth Stakes March 2 behind heavy favorite Dornoch. That race was depleted by four scratches, including the two main threats to Dornoch based on past performances, and of this trio only Le Dom Bro applied any pressure to the favorite before tiring late. Having said that, in my opinion Frankie’s Empire has the best chance to be a factor in the Florida Derby. The Classic Empire colt was close to overtaking Le Dom Bro for second in the Fountain of Youth and was making his first start at 1 1/16 miles in that race after impressively winning the seven-furlong Swale Stakes one start earlier at Gulfstream. Among the other double-digit horses, Grand Mo the First (15-1) has some appeal despite modest speed figures. He nearly won the Tampa Bay Derby last out, finishing third by a neck behind Domestic Product and No More Time, has a good distance pedigree, and has not finished worse than third through five starts. Both Frankie’s Empire and Grand Mo the First have shown enough talent to boost the payouts for exotic bets such as the trifecta or superfecta, but I don’t see either of them – or any other outsider – winning on Saturday.

5. Is the Kentucky Derby winner in this field?

The 2024 Florida Derby shapes up on paper as a somewhat pedestrian renewal, with much of the suspense surrounding whether Fierceness can move forward off of his Holy Bull Stakes dud and regain his spot at or near the top of the Kentucky Derby rankings. Even if he wins the Florida Derby and gets back on track, I think there are several horses elsewhere on the Kentucky Derby trail who have more upside and a better chance to break through on May 4 than this talented but inconsistent colt. He’ll have to do more than just win on Saturday to convince me otherwise – a “wow” performance similar to his romp in the BC Juvenile is what I require. The only other Florida Derby starter I envision having an impact on the Kentucky Derby is possibly Hades, and then only as a horse that could help set a fast pace in the 1 ¼-mile classic.

Patrick’s superfecta: 1) Fierceness; 2) Hades; 3) Grand Mo the First; 4) Conquest Warrior