The Grade 2 Starlet Stakes offers the chance for any of six 2-year-old fillies to earn points on the Road to the Longines Kentucky Oaks and sets the stage for their 2024 campaigns. The field is led by Chatalas, who won the Grade 2 Chandelier Stakes in October before a ninth of 12 finish last month in the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Another previous stakes winner is Nothing Like You, who captured the Desi Arnaz Stakes last month. Two of the group of six fillies – Grazia and Great Forty Eight – are hoping to make the jump from maiden winner to stakes winner, which is not as difficult as it may seem at this time of year. The remaining two, Flynn’s Chance and Pacific Rose, are both maidens trying for the rare feat of earning their first career wins in a stakes race.
Top contenders:
Grazia is one of two fillies in the field trained by Bob Baffert, who is usually loaded with talented colts and fillies in the fall every year. She won her only start, on Nov. 12, at the shorter distance of six furlongs, and she did so with the maturity of a horse that has a lot of mental ability to go along with physical talent. In that race, Grazia raced in second behind the pacesetter for the first quarter-mile, engaged with that horse on the far turn, then burst clear by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to run, before coasting home. The 89 Equibase Speed Figure earned isn’t the highest in the field, but we can assume it’s going to improve markedly because Grazia is on the same pattern as 2022 Starlet winner Faiza, also trained by Baffert. Faiza had won her only start prior to this race last year, earning an 84 figure, which improved to 92 winning the Starlet. Assuming similar improvement for Grazia, we can expect an effort worthy of a 97 figure, which is more than good enough to win this year’s Starlet.
That being said, first Grazia has to get by the other Baffert trainee in the field, Nothing Like You, who has won two races in a row. The first of the two was a mile race around two turns in October, with a 90 Equibase figure which might have been higher as she won by 6 1/2 lengths. Next, Nothing Like You cut back in distance to seven furlongs for the Desi Arnaz Stakes, winning by a nose with a strong late rally to improve to a 93 figure. In 2021, Eda won the Starlet for Baffert off a win in the Desi Arnaz. Nothing Like You gets the ground-saving rail post position for the Starlet and, if she improves by a similar margin as in her last start, Nothing Like You would earn a 96 figure very similar to how fast Grazia might run, leading to a fantastic battle for top honors.
Chatalas proved she belongs at the level when leading from start to finish winning the Chandelier Stakes in October at this 1 1/16-mile distance. She was jostled hard at the start in the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies one month later and never found good position, checking in ninth of 12. We can make the case that effort can be forgiven, and that her Chandelier effort is the one she can repeat today. She earned a 90 Equibase figure in that race. Even though she led all the way in the Chandelier, in her debut two races earlier Chatalas rallied strongly from third so she may not be a need the lead type. As such, we can’t discount her chances to succeed in this field.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Flynn’s Chance (75), Great Forty Eight (79) and Pacific Rose (86).
Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Grazia
Nothing Like You
Chatalas
Pick 4
4-3-1-1
4-3-1-1
$60
Pick 6
8-3-4-3-1-1
8-3-4-3-1-1
$57
Pick 6
8-3-4-3-1-1
8-3-4-3-1-1
$2,533
Superfecta
1-3-5-4
1-3-5-4
$31
Super High Five
1-3-5-4-2
1-3-5-4-2
$764
Pick 4
4-3-1-1
4-3-1-1
$60
Pick 6
8-3-4-3-1-1
8-3-4-3-1-1
$57
Pick 6
8-3-4-3-1-1
8-3-4-3-1-1
$2,533
Superfecta
1-3-5-4
1-3-5-4
$31
Super High Five
1-3-5-4-2
1-3-5-4-2
$764
