The road to the 2024 Longines Kentucky Oaks makes an important stop at Churchill Downs this Saturday for the running of the $400,000, Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes.
A 1 1/16-mile race for 2-year-old fillies, the Golden Rod has churned out a trio of Kentucky Oaks winners in recent years: Monomoy Girl (2018), Secret Oath (2022), and Pretty Mischievous (2023). All three were beaten in the Golden Rod (they improved a lot at age 3), but their presence in the Golden Rod indicates its importance as a Kentucky Oaks qualifier.
Eight horses are entered in the 2023 Golden Rod, and while a case can be made for any of them to factor, we’re keen to support Godolphin homebred #5 Central Avenue as our top choice. The daughter of 2007 Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense has shown promise while competing against tough competition in her first two starts.
Central Avenue debuted in a maiden special weight dashing seven-eighths of a mile at Colonial Downs, where she broke slowly and trailed the field during the early stages. But despite these challenging circumstances, Central Avenue rallied strongly down the homestretch (running her final eighth of a mile in about :12.17, an excellent fraction) to beat Perfectly Wicked by half a length. Perfectly Wicked flattered the form by returning to win her next start and finish third in the Tempted Stakes.
Central Avenue was an 18.60-1 longshot when she stepped up in class for the one-mile Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont at the Big A, but again she ran well. Bumping at the start left Central Avenue in last place behind a modest pace, but she was full of run down the homestretch, rocketing her final quarter-mile in about :24.28 (again, a strong fraction) to finish second by 3 ¾ lengths against next-out Grade 1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Just F Y I. Life Talk, the third-place finisher in the Frizette, also ran well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies to finish fourth.
Given the quality of competition Central Avenue has faced, she has to be viewed as a key win threat in the Golden Rod. She’ll be racing around two turns for the first time at Churchill Downs, but her strong finishes around one turn suggest she’ll enjoy a two-turn configuration. Certainly Central Avenue is bred to run long distances; her dam is Centring, who placed in three Grade 1 stakes racing 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, and Centring is a daughter of 1 ½-mile Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner and influential sire A.P. Indy.
Depending on how much money you want to invest in betting the Golden Rod, we have a couple of different wagering strategies to recommend. Both involve keying Central Avenue on top of an exacta using logical rivals #7 West Sunset and #8 Thorpedo Anna for second place, and the bigger-budget strategy adds a trifecta for good measure.
Both West Sunset and Thorpedo Anna are unbeaten fillies with promising credentials. West Sunset rallied strongly to win her debut dashing three-quarters of a mile at Churchill Downs, then stepped up in class and distance to win the 1 1/16-mile Rags to Riches Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion at Churchill. Like the Golden Rod, the Rags to the Riches is an official Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier, and West Sunset led by daylight at every call to dominate by 6 ¾ lengths.
As for the Thorpedo Anna, she launched an eye-catching rally to win her debut sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Churchill Downs, trouncing her opponents by 8 ½ lengths. That was a noteworthy performance since Thorpedo Anna is trained by Kenny McPeek, who rarely cranks his 2-year-olds to win first-time out.
It was logical to expect Thorpedo Anna to improve off her debut, and improve she did. Facing five rivals in a $100,000 allowance optional claiming race going a one-turn mile at Churchill, Thorpedo Anna stayed close to the early pace before taking over and finishing fast (final quarter-mile in a terrific :23.86) to win by nine lengths in the quick time of 1:35.68. Thorpedo Anna is running back on just 15 days of rest, but if she repeats her dominant allowance performance, she’ll be a strong contender in the Golden Rod.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$5 exacta: 5 with 7,8 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 10th race, $5 exacta 5 with 7,8
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$12 exacta: 5 with 7,8 ($24)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 10th race, $12 exacta 5 with 7,8
$3 trifecta: 5 with 7,8 with 7,8 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, 10th race, $3 trifecta 5 with 7,8 with 7,8
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Daily Double
7-2
7-2
$110
Superfecta
2-8-5-1
2-8-5-1
$131
Super High Five
2-8-5-1-6
2-8-5-1-6
$6,530
Daily Double
7-2
7-2
$110
Superfecta
2-8-5-1
2-8-5-1
$131
Super High Five
2-8-5-1-6
2-8-5-1-6
$6,530
