Spring in Central Kentucky can be extremely unpredictable in terms of weather with sharp variances in temperature and the potential for lots of rain. Anyone in Louisville this week leading up to the 150^th editions of both the Longines Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve can attest to the fact that you have to pack for anything and everything.

An ”off” – or wet – track can change the entire complexion of a race. Some racehorses relish a muddy or sloppy track while others despise it or simply have difficulty using their best racing attributes on a rain-soaked surface.

America’s Best Racing produces a yearly feature on which Kentucky Derby runners might be best-suited to racing on a wet track at Churchill Downs, and weather forecasts the last few years have also led to a similar feature for the Kentucky Oaks. Friday’s weather forecast for Louisville calls for steady early rain in the morning with scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon-evening.

Let’s start with the basics: what is an “off” track? In the simplest terms it is a racing surface rated anything other than fast.

Below is a quick explanation of dirt track conditions you might see/hear on Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby day:

Tractors seal the track before the 2020 Kentucky Derby. (Eclipse Sportswire)

• good (track): a dirt track that is almost fast.
• wet fast (track): a track that has moisture on the surface that has not had time to impact the base of the surface.
• muddy (track): condition of a racetrack that is wet but has no standing water.
• sloppy (track): a racing surface that is saturated with water and has standing water visible.
• sealed (track): a dirt track that has been floated (packed down) and not subsequently harrowed.

The best predictor for which runners will handle an “off” track is past experience. A racehorse who has enjoyed success on a wet or “off” track is more likely to excel than a horse who has performed poorly. Specifically, a racehorse with success on the same main track under the same (or similar) conditions has a big advantage.

Only #2 Gin Gin has experience on a wet track at Churchill Downs, having finished second and 6 ¾ lengths behind winner West Sunset in the 1 1/16-mile Rags to Riches Stakes Oct. 29, 2023. Gin Gin has a win, one second, and one third in three races on an “off” track.

For the rest of the field, the table below will show how the Oaks contenders have performed on an “off” track with their career record, top Beyer Speed Figure on a wet track, and best Equibase Speed Figure on a wet track. The best Beyer and Equibase Speed Figures from among the Oaks entrants are bolded as are the Oaks runners with at least one win on a wet track.

One of the main takeaways from the table is that several of the leading contenders have experienced success on wet tracks.

#8 Tarifa, the 7-2 morning-line favorite, won the Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented by Fasig-Tipton by 2 ¾ lengths in February on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds. The 90 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in that win is the best number for the Kentucky Oaks field in a race contested on a wet track.

Just F Y I won the Frizette on a sloppy track. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Last year’s champion 2-year-old filly, #13 Just F Y I, won the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes on a sloppy track at the Belmont at the Big A meet.

Grade 1 winner #14 Leslie’s Rose won an allowance race on a track rated good in her second career race and earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure and a 90 Equibase Speed Figure, both very good figures.

#1 Tapit Jenallie, the aforementioned Gin Gin, #10 Into Champagne, and #15 Our Pretty Woman, all would very likely also get a boost from a rainy Kentucky Oaks Friday. Into Champagne won the Glitter Woman Stakes on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park. Our Pretty Woman won her first two starts on sloppy track at Fair Grounds and earned quality speed figures for both victories. NOTE: Tapit Jenallie was scratched from the race on Thursday and will not compete in the Kentucky Oaks.

Another useful tool for predicting which horses will excel on an off track is the Tomlinson rating, which Daily Racing Form uses to make an educated guess how racehorses will handle wet tracks based on performance of the horse’s sire and broodmare sire’s progeny on “off” tracks. For the Oaks field, the table below lists the contenders from high (best for a wet track) to low. These numbers can be especially useful for horses who have no experience on “off” tracks and also to compare with previous wet-track performance for confirmation.

The Tomlinson wet ratings for Into Champagne, Leslie’s Rose, Our Pretty Woman, Just F Y I, Tarifa, and Tapit Jenallie – all discussed above – further support on-track performance indicators that an “off” track should not hurt and could help their chances in the Kentucky Oaks. #9 Everland and #16 Candied also could outperform expectations based simply upon Tomlinson ratings.