Did you know six of the 13 U.S. Triple Crown winners contested the historic Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct? Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Secretariat (1973), and Seattle Slew (1977) all used the Wood Memorial as a steppingstone to glory in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes.

The Grade 2 Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino remains a prominent stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, and the 2024 edition coming up this Saturday is shaping up to be a competitive race. Analyzing the history of the Wood Memorial – not so much the distant history filled with Triple Crown winners, but the 13 editions held since 2010 – can reveal trends to help us identify the most likely winner.

Here are five historical trends to keep in mind when handicapping the 2024 Wood Memorial:

Stretch runners outperform speed horses

The Wood Memorial isn’t favorable to speed horses, which is ironic since U.S. dirt racing in general tends to play kindly toward speed. You have to go back to Bellamy Road in 2005 to find the last gate-to-wire winner, and eight out of 13 winners since 2010 rallied from outside the top three after the opening half-mile.

That’s not to say speed horses are completely ineffective in the Wood Memorial – five winners since 2010 were racing in the top three after half a mile, no more than two lengths off the early pace. But it pays to favor horses who can settle at least a little ways off the pace, and you shouldn’t fear backing a stretch runner if they look competitive on paper.

Favor proven graded stakes competitors

Inexperienced maiden and allowance runners are at a disadvantage facing proven graded stakes performers in the Wood Memorial. No fewer than 12 of the last 13 Wood Memorial winners had previously contested a graded stakes, with seven winning a graded stakes and four others placing at the graded level. Even last year’s 59.25-1 longshot winner Lord Miles had started in a pair of graded stakes, finishing sixth in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes and fifth in the Grade 3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The only Wood Memorial winner since 2010 who entered without graded stakes experience was Bourbonic, who sprung a 72.25-1 upset in 2021.

Todd Pletcher is tops among trainers

Todd Pletcher (Lauren King/Coglianese Photo)

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Wood Memorial seven times since 2010, with Eskendereya, Gemologist, Verrazano, Outwork, Vino Rosso, Bourbonic, and Mo Donegal. He’s only one win shy of the record eight wins recorded by trainer “Sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons between 1928 and 1957. Pletcher nearly picked up an eighth win in 2023, when his Dreamlike finished third by a head.

Pletcher trainees frequently start at low odds, but occasionally they strike at bigger prices, with Bourbonic at 72.25-1 being a prime example. Any horse Pletcher enters in the Wood Memorial warrants respect.

Horses from Florida are dominant

Since the Wood Memorial takes place in New York, you might assume most of the winners are horses based in New York. But that’s simply not the case. Since 2010, 11 out of 13 Wood Memorial winners exited races at Gulfstream Park or Tampa Bay Downs in Florida, including the above-mentioned longshot Lord Miles. Considering only 35 Florida raiders have contested the Wood Memorial since 2010, that’s a remarkable success rate.

Long-winded Grade 1 stars sire Wood Memorial winners

Pedigree handicappers should note that stallions who won at the Grade 1 level over distances of 1 1/16 miles or farther have the best luck siring Wood Memorial winners, with the progeny of such stallions winning 11 of the last 13 editions.

The only stallions to defy this trend were Hard Spun (sire of Wicked Strong) and More Than Ready (sire of Verrazano). Both were Grade 1-winning sprinters who stretched their speed to record top-four finishes in the Kentucky Derby, so it’s safe to say both had class and reasonably good stamina.

Conclusions

Tuscan Sky (Eclipse Sportswire)

A large field is expected to enter the 2024 Wood Memorial, and while entries won’t be final until Wednesday, we can make some predictions about the most likely winner based off the probable starters.

The abundant success of trainer Todd Pletcher in the Wood Memorial makes it tempting to favor his undefeated Tuscan Sky, a son of 1 ¼-mile Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso. But Tuscan Sky is a pace-tracking speed horse, and his two career victories have come in an Aqueduct maiden special weight and a Fair Grounds allowance. Since he lacks graded stakes experience and isn’t exiting a race at Gulfstream or Tampa, there are significant chinks in Tuscan Sky’s historical profile.

Instead, history points toward Elysian Meadows as a compelling choice. After opening his career with maiden and allowance victories sprinting at Aqueduct, he shipped to Florida for the winter and started 2024 with a fourth-place finish in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

In the Sam F. Davis, Elysian Meadows settled as far back as ninth place before passing five rivals to finish 6 ½ lengths behind the winner. He may find Aqueduct more suitable for his running style. Throw in the fact he’s a son of 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes winner City of Light, and Elysian Meadows matches four of our five historical trends. He’s trained by Bill Mott instead of Pletcher, but Mott is a Hall of Fame conditioner who saddled Tacitus to win the 2019 Wood Memorial, so all told there’s a lot to like about Elysian Meadows.

Mott also trains Resilience, a son of 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 CashCall Futurity winner Into Mischief, a five-time leading North American sire. Resilience exits a fourth-place finish in a deep renewal of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, in which he was beaten only by Sierra Leone (one of the Kentucky Derby favorites), two-time stakes winner Track Phantom, and next-out Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom. Resilience tracked a modest pace in the Risen Star, but he’d previously been more of a late runner, so he matches three of our five trends. The fact he’s coming out of a tough graded stakes like the Risen Star is a big positive.

Good luck, and enjoy the race!