2019 Pennsylvania Derby Cheat Sheet

Racing
Graded stakes winners Mr. Money, War of Will and Improbable (left to right) headline Saturday’s $1 million Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing.

The $1 million, Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing on Sept. 21 is the final marquee race restricted to members of a very competitive and unsettled 3-year-old dirt male division before they begin competing against older horses in races such as the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 2.

The buildup to Saturday’s race was significantly altered Tuesday after a late scratch of TVG.com Haskell Invitational Stakes winner and disqualified Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve first-place finisher Maximum Security. Preakness Stakes winner War of Will and Mr. Money, currently riding a four-race graded stakes winning streak, headline the six-horse field. The 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby will be televised nationally on NBC with a scheduled post time of 5:48 p.m. ET.

Whether you are interested in making a couple of bucks on the race or just want to know a little bit about this year’s runners, we’ve got you covered with our 2019 Pennsylvania Derby Cheat Sheet.


Bob Coglianese/Gulfstream Park

1. Math Wizard  (6-1 mornng-line odds)

Jockey: Edgard Zayas

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Owners: John Fanelli, Collarmele Vitelli Stables, Bassett Stables, Ioannis Zoumas, Wynwood Thoroughbreds, and Saffie Joseph Jr.

Career record: 12 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $260,073

Earnings per start: $21,673

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 113

Pedigree: Algorithms – Minister’s Baby, by Deputy Minister

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: After being claimed by co-owner John Fanelli and trainer Saffie Joseph following a blowout win at Gulfstream Park in January, this colt has steadily improved his form to build a bankroll in graded stakes all throughout the eastern U.S. He nearly won the Grade 3 Ohio Derby three starts back, losing by a half-length to Preakness Stakes third-place finisher Owendale, and also ran well in the July 13 Grade 3 Indiana Derby, losing by four lengths to dominant Mr. Money. In his most recent start, Math Wizard regressed, dropping to a 93 Equibase Speed Figure and checking in sixth in the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby Aug. 3, beaten 11 ¾ lengths by Mr. Money. He’s been training steadily at Gulfstream Park for Joseph since that loss, and if he can regain his midsummer form, Math Wizard could sneak into the trifecta as he has a good, stalking running style for a renewal of the Pennsylvania Derby that, on paper, should have several horses competing for the early lead. But he’s a longshot as a win candidate. 


Eclipse Sportswire

2. Improbable (8-5)

Jockey: Mike Smith

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and Starlight Racing

Career record: 8 starts – 4 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $829,520

Earnings per start: $103,690

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 112

Pedigree: City Zip – Rare Event, by A.P. Indy

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Press the pace

Notable achievements and interesting facts: This colt, one of the leading winter-book favorites for the 2019 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, restored some of his luster with a sharp 2 ¾-length win at Del Mar in the Aug. 25 Shared Belief Stakes. That was his first start since running sixth in the Preakness Stakes and fourth (moved up from fifth) in the Kentucky Derby, where he did not show the high cruising speed he had displayed during his 2-year-old campaign and his two Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. Shortened back to a mile and facing only three opponents, Improbable was much the best in the Shared Belief, and he’s posted three swift workouts at Santa Anita Park for Bob Baffert since that win. But there’s still an unanswered question about distance limitations for Improbable, as he’s yet to win a race longer than a mile and a sixteenth. He should contest the early pace in the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby, but should have plenty of company up front in Mr. Money, Spun to Run, and possibly War of Will. One big boost to his win chances resides in the irons, as Mike Smith has won the most recent two Pennsylvania Derbys for Baffert aboard West Coast in 2017 and McKinzie in 2018. Baffert also won the 2014 Pennsylvania Derby with Bayern. Co-owner Jack Wolf's Starlight Racing owned 2002 Pennsylvania Derby winner Harlan's Holiday.


3. Shanghai Superfly (30-1)

Jockey: Frankie Pennington

Trainer: Marcos Zulueta

Owners: Morris Kernan Jr. and M-Z Racing Partnership

Career record: 8 starts – 0 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $28,330

Earnings per start: $3,541

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 91

Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby – Wicked Wish, by Gold Case

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: In a Grade 1 stakes featuring four graded stakes winners and one runner that has placed in multiple graded stakes races, this colt’s presence is a surprise to say the least. He started his career racing in maiden special weight races earlier this year at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland, but made no impression and was dropped into the maiden claiming ranks, where he finished second twice at Churchill Downs before being claimed in June and moved to the Mid-Atlantic circuit. He’s since finished fourth in a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park and second, defeated by eight lengths, in a one-mile maiden claiming race on Sept. 7 at Parx Racing. Shanghai Superfly does draw the services of Parx’s top jockey, Frankie Pennington, who is tied for most wins at the track and leads in earnings as of Sept. 17, but this son of champion Shanghai Bobby has shown nothing through eight starts to suggest that he’ll be a factor in any stage of the Pennsylvania Derby.


Eclipse Sportswire

4. War of Will (4-1)

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Trainer: Mark Casse

Owner: Gary Barber

Career record: 12 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 1 third

Career earnings: $1,515,569

Earnings per start: $126,297

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 107

Pedigree: War Front – Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells

Color: Bay

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Three and a half months after briefly receiving strong support as a leading candidate for champion 3-year-old during the middle of the Triple Crown series, Preakness Stakes winner War of Will heads into Saturday’s Pennsylvania Derby in comeback mode. He was never really involved in the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, finishing seven lengths behind stablemate Sir Winston in ninth, and then set the pace for six furlongs in the Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets before tiring to finish fifth in his most recent start on July 27 at Saratoga. The general assessment of War of Will after that race was that a rigorous campaign over the first seven months of 2019 — seven starts, all in graded stakes, including all three Triple Crown races — had caught up with him. He’s conducted excellent workouts in New York for Mark Casse in recent weeks in advance of his highly anticipated return, and it will be interesting to see if regular rider Tyler Gaffalione positions War of Will in a stalking spot similar to his Preakness trip on Saturday against a field with several high-caliber speed horses or is more aggressive with him early. His speed figures are lower than those of his main opponents in the Pennsylvania Derby, but this classic winner should be joining them in the stretch with a chance to win if he can regain his best form.


Bill Denver/EQUI-PHOTO

5. Spun to Run (8-1)

Jockey: Paco Lopez

Trainer: Juan Guerrero

Owner: Robert Donaldson

Career record: 8 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $360,520

Earnings per start: $45,065

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 113

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Yawkey Way, by Grand Slam

Color: Bay

Running style: Press the pace

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Mr. Money, War of Will, and Improbable (and especially late scratch Maximum Security) have captured nearly all of the prerace attention for this year’s Pennsylvania Derby, but this locally-based, improving colt deserves consideration as an upset candidate. He’s 3-for-3 in 2019 at his home track of Parx Racing, winning a maiden race and allowance race earlier this year by a combined 10 ½ lengths and, in his most recent start, outfinishing stakes winner Gray Magician by a head to score a breakthrough Grade 3 win in the Smarty Jones Stakes on Sept. 2. In his start prior to that, Spun to Run finished a well-beaten third at odds of 34.60-1 behind Maximum Security and Mucho Gusto in the Grade 1 TVG.com Haskell Invitational Stakes at Monmouth Park, but the colt did not give in and kept running through the stretch while chasing the above pair who had separated from the field coming out of the far turn. His 113 Equibase Speed Figure from the Smarty Jones matches up well against the top contenders in the Pennsylvania Derby, and Paco Lopez, aboard for his two most recent starts, retains the mount on Saturday. Look for Lopez to keep Spun to Run close to the early pace through the backstretch at the very least, and maybe set the pace from the outset if no other horse takes the initiative.


Coady Photography

6. Mr. Money (2-1)

Jockey: Gabriel Saez

Trainer: Bret Calhoun

Owner: Allied Racing Stable

Career record: 10 starts – 5 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $1,074,220

Earnings per start: $107,422

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 114

Pedigree: Goldencents – Plenty O’Toole, by Tiznow

Color: Bay

Running style: Press the pace

Notable achievements and interesting facts: A strong case can be made that no 3-year-old has had a better summer than this fast, professional runner, and his success is a result of a series of well thought out decisions by owner Chester Thomas and trainer Bret Calhoun. After flashing potential as a juvenile with a decent fourth in the 2018 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but still showing some immaturity in his two Kentucky Derby preps earlier this year at Fair Grounds, Mr. Money was shortened up in distance by his connections and showed a new level of talent on the Derby undercard when he romped in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by LG and E and KU. In his subsequent three starts, Mr. Money has bettered that form while stretching back out to two turns, winning the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes by 6 ½ lengths, the Grade 3 Indiana Derby by 2 ½ lengths, and the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby by six lengths. He’s posted three impressive workouts at Churchill Downs since his Aug. 3 rout in West Virginia, and although he’ll be facing a formidable challenge in Saturday’s Grade 1 against the War of Will and Improbable, Mr. Money’s connections have targeted this race, realizing that it’s time to test his ability against the best of his age group. Gabriel Saez has been aboard this colt for nine of his 10 starts, including his four consecutive stakes wins this summer, and should have his mount within a length or two of the leaders coming out of the first turn and through the backstretch, setting up what could be one of the most exciting stretch battles of the year.

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