Five Questions to be Answered in the San Felipe

March 9th, 2017 by Joe Kristufek

Mastery enters the San Felipe off a win in the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Run at 1 1/16 miles, Saturday’s $400,000 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park is the final steppingstone to the Santa Anita Derby. The race awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the first four finishers on a scale of 50-20-10-5.

Some major stars have won this race including Kentucky Derby winners Sunday Silence (1989) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000). Other high profile San Felipe winners include Point Given (2001) Medaglia d'Oro (2002) and American Pharoah's sire (father) Pioneerof the Nile (2009).

Trainer Bob Baffert, who saddles Mastery in this year's San Felipe, has won the race a record five times, but none of those horses has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. In the last nine years, no jockey has won the San Felipe more than once.

Since 2000 three Kentucky Derby winners have exited the San Felipe - race victors Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) and California Chrome (2014), and Giacomo (2nd in 2005), and nine of the last 11 San Felipe winners won their start prior, seven of those at Santa Anita.

Here are five questions that must be answered about the race.

1. Who is Bob Baffert’s top Kentucky Derby contender, Mastery or American Anthem?

Mastery, the probable San Felipe favorite, is undefeated in three starts, and he’s never been higher than 3-10 odds. He’s good, but the quality of the competition has proved itself to be lacking, with none of the horses he’s beaten worthy of the Triple Crown trail. We haven’t seen him since December’s win in the Los Alamitos Futurity, but his recent workouts have been eye-popping.

American Anthem has only run twice, breaking his maiden at first asking in advance of a narrow loss at the hooves of Sham Stakes winner Gormley. He’s headed next to the Rebel at Oaklawn on March 18. Baffert, who has won that race six of the last seven years, often sends his best 3-year-old to Arkansas, including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. By Bodemeister, American Anthem is out of the dam Indy's Windy, who is a half-sister to $2.7 million earning router Banshee Breeze.

Gormley (Eclipse Sportswire)

Joe's answer: We will have a better idea of who is better in the next two weeks. On my current top 10 list, Mastery is No. 2 and American Anthem is No. 3. Both are lightly raced and have major acid tests on the horizon.

2. Who is John Sherriffs’ top Kentucky Derby contender, Gormley or Royal Mo?

Known mostly for his work with Zenyatta, one of the greatest racemares of all time, Sherriffs was recently nominated to the Hall of Fame. He won the Kentucky Derby with his first-ever starter in the longshot Giacomo in 2005 and ran horses in the race the next two years (A.P. Warrior, 18th in 2006, and Tiago, 7th in 2007), but he hasn’t been back since. This year Sherriffs has two major players on the road to the Triple Crown in San Felipe starter Gormley and Robert B. Lewis winner Royal Mo.

An easy winner at first asking sprinting at Del Mar, Gormley stretched out for the FrontRunner and wired the field at 10-1. A troubled start compromised his chances in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he returned to score a game win over American Anthem in his seasonal debut. He has natural speed and tries hard.

As a 2-year-old, Royal Mo took three starts to break his maiden, but he took a huge step forward in his first run this year, wiring the Lewis in visually impressive fashion. He’ll face a major test against American Anthem, and others, in next Saturday’s Rebel.

Joe's answer: Gormley is more professional and accomplished, but Royal Mo may have more upside moving forward.

3. Can Iliad bite the hand that once fed him?

When owner Kaleem Shah took his horses away from Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill, who has won two Kentucky Derbys of his own (2012 with I’ll Have Another and 2016 with Nyquist) welcomed Iliad into his barn.

Iliad (Eclipse Sportswire)

Shah and Baffert enjoyed much success together, counting a 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic win with Bayern among their accomplishments, but now they’re going head to head in a major Kentucky Derby prep.

Iliad followed in the hoof-steps of eventual Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist by using the San Vicente Stakes as a launching pad for his 3-year-old campaign, winning that race in runaway fashion. He’s never competed around two turns, but he’s a half-brother to Melmich, a career earner of just shy of $600,000 who has done some of his best work over marathon distances.

Joe’s answer: Remember, Danzing Candy put them asleep on the front end in last year’s San Felipe, so perhaps Iliad can pull the same trick. Mastery and Gormley also like to run up front, but chances are they let Iliad go, and he may forget to stop.

4. Does California hold the strongest overall hand in this year’s prep season?

Joe’s answer: Great question, and I’m not sure anyone has the answer at this stage. The San Felipe will tell us a lot, as will the Rebel. The California clan will either assert themselves the next two weeks, or remain muddled with the rest of this wide open crop.

5. Who wins the San Felipe and why?

Bob Baffert has handled Mastery with kid gloves. He takes them off this week and unleashes what could be a beast. The recent morning workouts certainly indicate as much. Chances are he spies Iliad and Gormley from third, takes over on the turn, and draws off to a win that will stamp him as the divisional leader many think he can be.

Joe's San Felipe picks: 1. Mastery 2. Gormley 3. Iliad 4. Ann Arbor Eddie