Belmont Stakes Could Be Key in Muddled 3-Year-Old Picture

June 9th, 2017 by Tom Pedulla

Irish War Cry is one of a few Belmont Stakes contenders who could help clarify the 3-year-old picture with a win. (Eclipse Sportswire)

With the 149^th running of the Belmont Stakes presented by NYRABets almost at hand, the sport continues what has been a months-long search for a 3-year-old with staying power.

That may be a bit unsettling for fans who will never forget what happened two years ago, when American Pharoah ruled the Belmont from start to finish in giving racing its 12^th Triple Crown champion and first in 37 years. When Pharoah went on to add the Breeders’ Cup Classic to his laurels, he became the first to complete the “Grand Slam.”

And no one can forget last season, when Arrogate seemingly came from nowhere to smash the track record in the Travers, the famed Mid-Summer Derby, in a performance for the ages at old Saratoga Race Course. Arrogate, too, proved to be a 3-year-old capable of beating older males in the Classic as he ran down California Chrome with a furious rush.

With that as a backdrop, no wonder fans keep waiting for a dominant 3-year-old to emerge in a season in which very little has gone as planned or expected.

The mile-and-a-half Belmont was viewed as an important showcase for Classic Empire, but his season-long run of bad luck continued when he developed an abscess that forced him to be withdrawn hours before post positions were assigned on Wednesday. Earlier this year, his progress was set back by a combination of foot and back problems.

Classic Empire continues to lead the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s 3-year-old poll with 17 first-place votes to 14 for Always Dreaming. It will not help his standing, though, that he could not help himself in the Belmont.

Always Dreaming wins the Derby. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Anyone who votes for Classic Empire cannot do so comfortably and may continue to be influenced by success in the Juvenile that stamped him as 2-year-old champion. His work as a 3-year-old is hardly convincing. He is the shakiest of division leaders after being roughed up early in the Kentucky Derby to come in fourth there, a contest that came with a ready excuse. But it is not nearly as easy to forgive his Preakness, when he seemingly lost focus on the lead and was run down by lightly-raced longshot Cloud Computing.

Always Dreaming also has much work to do if he is to secure a year-end Eclipse Award as the leading 3-year-old. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, understands the voter mentality that typically asks, “What have you done for me lately?”

“Division championships aren’t won the first half of the year,” Pletcher said. “You can have the same accomplishments the second half of the year and they’ll carry more weight than identical accomplishments in the first half with the exception of the Derby. The Derby always carries a little extra weight in a tie-breaker situation.”

Pletcher believes the Eclipse, as of now, is Always Dreaming’s to lose. “It seems to me with the Florida Derby win and the Kentucky Derby win he’s the division leader,” he said. “Someone has to step up and win a couple of significant races. So far, no one has strung together those wins like he has.”

As is the case with Classic Empire, voters will want to see more from Always Dreaming after he ran out of gas so swiftly in the Preakness, weakening to eighth.

Although the Belmont field lacks the Derby and Preakness winner, it contains horses that have shown quality while lacking consistency. Favored Irish War Cry opened his season with a front-running victory in the Holy Bull, languished in seventh in the Fountain of Youth, rebounded to win the Wood Memorial and then ran a dismal 10^th in the Derby.

Gormley took the Sham in his 3-year-old debut, weakened to be fourth in the San Felipe, rebounded to win the Santa Anita Derby and never showed much in crossing the line ninth in the Kentucky Derby, 14 ¼ lengths behind Always Dreaming.

Senior Investment is another that shows potential. After running sixth in the Louisiana Derby, he got up to take the Grade 3 Lexington and rallied for third in the Preakness. The Belmont will help to determine his quality as the search for a star with staying power continues.