Pigskins and Ponies: AFC Title Game, Bounce-Back Candidate at Santa Anita

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If you like betting both football and horse racing, you've come to the right place!

Each week in Pigskins and Ponies you'll find analysis and key football bets from Payne Insider and Todd Fuhrman plus racing picks from Jose Contreras.

Professional bettor Payne Insider and former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman are founders of Bet the Board, a cutting edge sports betting company focused on written and digital content. You can listen to Bet The Board podcast every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday during football season on iTunes and Soundcloud.

Handicapper Jose Contreras is an analyst for horse racing network TVG and a regular contributor to America's Best Racing.

Get this week's picks below, and be sure to check back for new selections each week. Happy betting!


Pigskins

Tennessee @ Kansas City Team Total Over 29.5

Last week, we gave out and saw the Chiefs fly over their team total despite not scoring a point in the opening quarter after multiple drops stalled early drives. The team total market on Kansas City continues to undervalue what this offense is capable of, and that’s the case again this week. This matchup is extremely favorable for the Chiefs offense, as the Titans have struggled stopping the pass. Tennessee ranks 21st in defensive pass efficiency, 23rd in defensive pass success rate, and that’s against a below average schedule of passing offenses faced. Rewind to Week 10 of the regular season and Pat Mahomes threw for 448 yards, with 3 TDs and 0 INTs in his first game back from his knee dislocation in Tennessee. There are trends that suggest teams come out flat after a big offensive performance in the playoffs (teams that score 40-plus in a playoff game are 6-26 ATS the game after), but this Chiefs offense should buck that trend. With the total rising to 53, there still remains value on any number below 31.  

Best Bet: Kansas City Team Total Over 29.5


Ponies

For this series, I will be looking for one key horse to single in a Pick 3 in hopes of cashing a profitable exotic wager. The budget will be in the $20 range and will keep track of ROI each week. This week’s key horse:

Saturday, Jan. 18

Santa Anita Park, Race 8, California Cup Oaks, 7 p.m. ET

#4 Been Studying Her: She did not fire at all when going off as the heavy favorite in the Soviet Problem Stakes at Los Alamitos. It was a race that I’m willing to cross out and give her another chance just because of how good she looked two starts ago winning the Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes during Breeders’ Cup weekend. She defeated a good field that day and did so impressively. She recently turned in a bullet workout on Jan. 9 at Los Alamitos and gets reunited with the rider, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, who was aboard for her two stakes wins.

$1 Pick 3 ticket:

Race 6: 1,2,4,5,8

Race 7: 1,5,6,9

Race 8: 4

Total: $20

Total wagered: $380

Total returned: $44.75

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