Dan’s Double: Two Tampa Bay Value Plays

Gambling
Horses leave the starting gate at Tampa Bay Downs. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, April 11

weekend Television schedule

Friday, April 10: 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, April 11: 1:30-7 p.m. ET on FS1; 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, April 12: 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 2, post time 12:45 p.m. ET

#3 Daresca: This isn’t the strongest group of maiden claimers, but there are signs looking back at the recent form of this filly that indicate she’s capable of breaking through here. If you go ahead and put a line through her last two races – they were both on turf and this race is on the dirt – you’ll land on her race on Jan. 5. In that spot, she rallied nicely to finish third and was seven-plus lengths clear of the fourth place finisher. The two horses who finished ahead of her came back to run impressively (the winner Saygoodnightgracie won an allowance in her next start). In her race prior to Jan. 5, Daresca finished ahead of three next-out winners. This is the lowest level Daresca has ever run at and she’s shown enough in her most recent dirt tries to take a fairly confident swing in this super soft spot.

$10 Budget 

$2 win, place and show on #3 Daresca ($6)

$2 exacta box 3,8 ($4)

$25 Budget 

$4 win, place and show on #3 Daresca ($12)

$1 trifecta 3,8 with 1,3,6,8 with 1,3,6,8 ($12)

$50 Budget

$10 win, place and show on #3 Daresca ($30)

$1 trifecta 3,8 with 1,3,6,8 with 1,3,6,8 ($12)

$2 exacta key box 3 with 1,6 ($8)

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 6, post time 2:45 p.m. ET

#1 Yabba Dabba Dude: At first glance, #10 Last Promise might look like he towers over this field based on recent speed figures and the drop in class. But it is somewhat curious that they’re running this horse back for a $10,000 tag on the dirt just a couple of weeks after he won for $25,000 on the turf. The other thing I worry about with him is that he’s drawn wide and he has two horses inside of him (#9 Ox Trot and #6 Big Money Machine) who have enough early speed to at least make it difficult for Last Promise to cross over to the rail. Yabba Dabba Dude is drawn the rail and has plenty of gate speed himself. If he breaks cleanly, I can envision a situation in which some of the other pressers take back off of him, not wanting to get into an all-out pace duel early in a mile and 40 yard race. This horse won by over five lengths last out and the runner-up from that race came back to win in his next start. Lastly, there’s added confidence with jockey Alonso Quinonez taking the mount for this barn – the jockey and trainer connect at a solid 23% clip. 

$10 Budget 

$5 win and place on #1 Yabba Dabba Dude ($10)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #1 Yabba Dabba Dude ($12)

$1 trifecta key 1 with 2,5,9,10 ($12)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #1 Yabba Dabba Dude ($24)

$1 trifecta key 1 with 2,5,9,10 ($12)

$.50 superfecta 1 with 5 with 2,4,9,10 with ALL ($14)

Last Week’s Earnings: $0

2020 Earnings: $1,266.90

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