Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!

Saturday, Feb. 15

Fair Grounds, Race 10, $150,000 Fair Grounds Stakes, 5:32 p.m. ET

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#9 Captivating Moon: This is such a great betting race. What stands out in this large field is that there are several early speed types signed up to run, including #3 Botswana, #4 Factor This, #11 Sailing Solo, and #13 Spectacular Gem. A fast pace last out in the Colonel E. R. Bradley Stakes compromised early pacesetters Sailing Solo and Factor This; the pace also benefitted the winner of the race, #5 Dontblamerocket. He won easily and seems to be headed in the right direction as this group reunites with a few new shooters in the mix. But the horse I ultimately landed on is another one who could benefit from a hot pace, #9 Captivating Moon. He too ran in the E. R. Bradley and made a really nice late move. Unfortunately, he was so far out of it on the turn for home that he never really had a shot. In anticipation of another fast pace here, combined with a little more distance on Saturday, Captivating Moon seems very likely to be one of several horses who’ll have a shot to take the top spot. He also has some back-class on the grass having finished second and third in consecutive years in Grade 3 races at Arlington. This competition is comparable and we’re going to get a huge price, too.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$2 to win on #9 Captivating Moon ($2)

$1 exacta key box: 9 with 5,6,11,14 ($8)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$5 to win, place, show on #9 Captivating Moon ($15)

$1 exacta key box: 9 with 5,6,11,14 ($8)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$8 to win, place, show on #9 Captivating Moon ($24)

$1 exacta key box: 9 with 5,6,11,14 ($8)

$1 trifecta 5,9,14 with 5,9,14 with 5,6,9,11,14 ($18)

Fair Grounds, Race 12, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford, Division One, 6:38 p.m. ET

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#6 Shashashakemeup: This isn’t quite the horse I thought I would land on while handicapping the first division of the Risen Star Stakes, but the horse just stands out to me from a pace perspective. He was drawn widest of all last out in the Lecomte Stakes and still managed to get over and sit right on opening splits of :23.46 and :47.41. While he tired in the late stages, he couldn’t have been expected to do much more when some of the deeper closers made their rallies and ended up overhauling all of the early pacesetters. In this race, I’m envisioning a situation in which Shashashakemeup ends up shaking loose early. Jockey James Graham is a rider who usually likes to send early, too. For the price, I’m willing to take my chances and see how far this one can take them. I’ll be using him with two horses who I think are moving in the right direction, #1 Digital and #2 Silver State. You’ve also got to use #4 Perfect Revenge. He’s going to be a massive price but moved up dramatically first off the claim for Saffie Joseph Jr., a trainer who has upset stakes races repeatedly over the past eight months.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$2 win, place on #6 Shashashakemeup ($4)

$1 exacta box: 1,2,6 ($6)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$4 win, place on #6 Shashashakemeup ($12)

$1 exacta box: 1,2,4,6 ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$8 win, place on #6 Shashashakemeup ($24)

$1 exacta box: 1,2,4,6 ($12)

$.50 trifecta box: 2,6 with 1,2,6,9 with 1,2,4,6,8,9 ($12)

Last Week’s Earnings: $0

2020 Earnings: $870.30