Dan's Double: Hoping for a Price at Laurel Park

Gambling
Eclipse Sportswire

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, Feb. 22

Laurel Park, Race 6, 2:51 p.m. ET

#5 Wild River: This is the kind of play that you wouldn’t normally touch with the average trainer — but we’re not dealing with the average trainer in Claudio Gonzalez. He claimed Wild River out of a second-place finish in December against lower-level maidens (horses who haven’t won before). He brought the horse back in late January against similar company and Wild River didn’t just win, he crushed the field by 5 ¼ lengths. When Gonzalez moves a horse up right off a claim, it’s all but guaranteed he’s going to keep them rolling for at least a few more races. In fact, since 2018, he’s raced 33 starters second off the claim (who also won first off the claim) in dirt races — Gonzalez has won 27% of those races and more than half of the runners hit the board. You might even get a bit of a price here since several of the other runners in this race have been knocking on the door at or just below this level.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #5 Wild River ($6)

$1 exacta 5,6 with 4,5,6 ($6)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #5 Wild River ($12)

$1 exacta box 4,5,6 ($6)

$1 trifecta box 4,5,6 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$10 win, place and show on #5 Wild River ($30)

$1 exacta box 4,5,6 ($6)

$1 trifecta box 4,5,6 ($6)

$1 trifecta 1,5 with 1,4,5 with 1,4,5,6 ($8)

Laurel Park, Race 7, 3:20 p.m. ET

#3 Miss Tap Dance: Going to go a bit chalkier in the second half of this week’s post and settle on one of the favorites here. Miss Tap Dance ran a massive race on debut at Laurel, beating her nearest opponent by more than four lengths. The runner-up in that race came back to win in her next start too. In her first try in allowance company last out she was second-best to a winner who just ran a freakish race. Still, Miss Tap Dance posted an 80 Equibase Speed Figure and 65 Beyer Speed Figure — both are top numbers for any horse in this field. My hope is that this one might be a bit of an overlay given the presence of a few runners shipping back to Laurel after running in New York. If those horses take a decent amount of action, we may very well get a fair price on Miss Tap Dance.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #3 Miss Tap Dance ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$10 to win on #3 Miss Tap Dance ($10)

$5 exacta 3 with 8 ($5)

$2 exacta box 3,8 ($4)

$1 trifecta key 3 with 1,5,8 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$20 to win on #3 Miss Tap Dance ($20)

$10 exacta 3 with 8 ($10)

$4 exacta box 3,8 ($8)

$1 trifecta key 3 with 1,5,6,8 ($12)

Last Week’s Earnings: $0

2020 Earnings: $870.30

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