Dan’s Double: Banking on a Jockey Upgrade and Bullet Work at Oaklawn

Gambling
Classy Act (#4), shown winning at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 29, is one of Dan Tord-jman’s top plays for the upcoming weekend. (Coady Photography)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, April 25 

Oaklawn Park, Race 7, post time 4:42 p.m. ET

weekend Television schedule

Friday, April 24: 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, April 25: 1:30-7 p.m. ET on FS1; 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, April 26: 1:30-2:30 p.m. ET on FS2; 2:30-6:30 p.m. ET on FS1; 4-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN; post time varies on TVG

#11 Jungle Warfare: Like so many races at Oaklawn in recent weeks, this one appears to be such a great betting opportunity. You’ve got a range of form to sift through here but the one clear variable, as far as I can tell, is that there will be plenty of pace in this race. Assuming the track is playing fairly and that Jungle Warfare doesn’t lose too much ground going into the first turn, he’s got the right running style to sit off early and swoop past them late. I think we’re guaranteed a pretty fat price here too, considering he’s 0-for-3 at Oaklawn and coming off a really poor effort last out. But note that it was only his first try going a route of ground and it was over a wet track. He gets a major jockey upgrade here to Joel Rosario who has virtually hit the board in every single race over this track in 2020. Trainer John Sadler has also been heating up on this circuit and sending out one live runner after another. I like what I see here.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$5 win and place on #11 Jungle Warfare ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$8 win, place and show on #11 Jungle Warfare ($24)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 win, place and show on #11 Jungle Warfare ($30)

$5 exacta key box 11 with 1,7 ($20)


Oaklawn Park, Race 10, $125,000 Carousel Stakes, post time 6:16 p.m. ET

#5 Classy Act: This seems like a good spot to take a shot with a bit of a long shot. There’s no doubt that #8 Mia Mischief has a ton of class and loves Oaklawn. You’ve also got Grade-1 battle-tested Bellafina drawn down on the rail. But she’s only making her first start of the year so it wouldn’t be surprising if she doesn’t deliver a maximum effort. One horse who seems absolutely primed to fire a big race is Classy Act. If you put a line through the recent turf races and routes, you’ll see that she shows up every time. She ran huge here at Oaklawn last out and, since then, has posted two bullet works including a four-furlong time of :46.40 seconds – that’s pretty spectacular, and was best of 105 horses working that distance on that day. She’s five years old, and that’s the age at which a lot of racemares hit their stride. This one certainly seems to have taken a big forward step since the calendar turned to 2020.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$5 win and place on #5 Classy Act ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$5 win and place on #5 Classy Act ($10)

$1 trifecta 5,8 with 2,3,5,8 with 2,3,5,8 ($12)

$1 exacta 2,3,8 with 5 ($3)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #5 Classy Act ($24)

$1 trifecta 5,8 with 2,3,5,8 with 2,3,5,8 ($12)

$1 exacta key 5 with 2,3,8 ($6)

$8 exacta 5 with 8 ($8)

Last Week’s Earnings: $107.70

2020 Earnings: $1,374.60


If you’re new to the sport and just want enough information to get you started and give you confidence when you’re betting a horse, check out Equibase’s Turf Club Analysts and STATS True Odds for FREE. Turf Club Analysts provides top picks for each race along with a, brief analysis that’ll help you learn the game as you’re playing along. STATS True Odds is a visual, easy-to-use handicapping product that predicts how the race may unfold and which contenders may be there at the finish line. Getting started is quick and it doesn’t require you to make any purchases at all. Just click on this link, add to your cart the tracks that you’d like to play and then simply register for a free Equibase account.


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