Dan's Double: Back-to-Back Prices Saturday at Fair Grounds

Gambling
Channel Maker is one of Dan Tordjman’s top selections this weekend, making his second start of the year in Saturday’s Muniz Memorial Handicap. (Chelsea Durand/NYRA Photo)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, March 21

Fair Grounds, Race 9, $400,000 New Orleans Classic Stakes, 4:10 p.m. ET

weekend Television schedule

Friday, March 20: 1:30-3 p.m. ET on FS2; 3-6:30 p.m. ET on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, March 21: 1:30-6:30 p.m. ET on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, March 22: 1:30-6:30 p.m. ET on FS1; post time varies on TVG

#3 Fearless: These are deep waters for an allowance winner making just his third career start but this horse has looked so good that it’s enticing to take a shot with him here at what could be a nice price. I’ve always been a fan of #6 Silver Dust who always runs big over this dirt track at the Fair Grounds. But I’m taking a stand against him here because he had to exert himself pretty hard last out and he’s always seemed a little more vulnerable to me when going longer than a mile and a sixteenth (he’s 0 for 4 at this mile and an eighth distance). With Fearless, I don’t have any distance concerns and I like the show of confidence here from a powerful ownership outfit and trainer Todd Pletcher. The horse’s 115 Equibase Speed Figure last out is the highest of any in this field. The only other obvious speed in this race is #9 Gun It but I don’t think that one can stick with Fearless. Look for this one to take them a long way – and hopefully the whole way – on the lead.

$10 Budget

$5 win and place on #3 Fearless ($10)

$25 Budget

$6 win and place on #3 Fearless ($12)

$1 trifecta 3,6 with 3,6,8,9 with 3,6,8,9 ($12)

$50 Budget

$15 win and place on #3 Fearless ($30)

$1 trifecta 3,6 with 3,6,8,9 with 3,6,8,9 ($12)

$2 exacta key box 3 with 8,9 ($8)


Fair Grounds, Race 10, $300,000 Muniz Memorial Handicap, 4:42 p.m. ET

#8 Channel Maker: I love betting classy horses like this when they’re making their second start of the year (off of a winter freshening) and when their first race back was underwhelming. I’m not going to hold Channel Maker’s fourth-place finish against him in his 2020 debut in the Mac Diarmida Stakes. The horse wanted to go early, but he was wrangled back, which led him to climb a bit and ultimately overexert himself earlier in the race. Turning for home, he still had plenty in the tank but got caught up in traffic. He should be a lot sharper in his second race back and there isn’t a whole lot of speed in here either, so he could find himself on or near a pretty soft pace. He’s got as much back-class as any of them and would be an absolute steal if he goes off anywhere near the 6-1 he’s listed at on the morning line. I’m not overly concerned about #9 Factor This (who was the beneficiary of a largely uncontested pace when winning the Fair Ground Stakes last out) or #12 Synchrony (who always gets overbet despite winning just three times in his last 11 races).

$10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #8 Channel Maker ($6)

$1 exacta 8,12 with 1,8,12 ($4)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #8 Channel Maker ($12)

$1 trifecta key 8 over 1,3,4,12 ($12)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #8 Channel Maker ($24)

$1 trifecta key 8 over 1,3,4,12 ($12)

$.10 superfecta 1,8,12 with 1,3,8,12 with 1,2,3,4,8,12 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,12 ($14.40)

Last Week’s Earnings: $158.40

2020 Earnings: $1,266.90

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