While that complicates matters for bettors who had handicapped the races in anticipation of a dry track, it also provides us with an opportunity to look for some hidden value in horses who might perform bettor today because of the rain.
Here’s a look at three longshots in the Pegasus World Cup Turf and the Pegasus Word Cup who you should now consider using on your tickets.
No matter what, keep an eye on the weather throughout the day and monitor how the track is playing — whether it appears to be favoring speed or horses on the rail. Be especially mindful of changes in the track if the rain does not continue.
#3 Channel Maker (12-1 morning line): He ran his best career race last September on soft ground in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes at Belmont. In that race, he led every step of the way and won by 4 1/2 lengths, defeating Arlington Million winner Robert Bruce. He moves up substantially on a wet turf course today.
#5 Next Shares (15-1 morning line): This is another horse who ran arguably his best race on a course with some give to it back in October at Keeneland. Under a masterful ride from Tyler Gaffalione, he rallied up the rail and kicked away from a deep field in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile. Gaffalione also rides today and he happens to be one of the best locally based turf riders too. Look out!
#8 Delta Prince (15-1 morning line): Look back in his race history and you’ll find a solid third-place finish behind Heart to Heart on a yielding track in the 2017 Bernard Baruch Handicap at Saratoga. He ran even more impressively last summer when he caught a good turf course in the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap. He posted a career-best 104 Beyer Speed Figure while finishing second by a neck to horse-for-course Voodoo Song.
#6 Tom’s d’Etat (20-1 morning line): The truth is that this horse has been absolutely flawless in his last four races, whether it has been a fast track or a wet track. The big question is whether he can handle this class jump into top-tier graded stakes company. If his race last July at Saratoga is any indication, the rain should only improve his chances. He absolutely crushed an allowance field there by nine lengths on a track listed as good.
#7 True Timber (30-1 morning line): This horse was sneaky-good last out finishing second to Patternrecognition in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. If you already liked him moving in the right direction, you might also like seeing the 90 Beyer Speed Figure he posted in allowance company last February. That was the one time he caught a sloppy track and the result far exceeded anything he’d done previously. He also has a 404 wet track Tomlinson Figure, which would indicate that effort last year wasn’t a fluke.
#10 Audible (10-1 morning line): Don’t be fooled by the sloppy-track runner-up result last out. He’s a horse who can and has run well on a wet surface. If you remember last year’s Kentucky Derby, he flew late up a soaked rail at Churchill Downs and nearly nailed Good Magic for second at the finish line. We already know that Audible loves Gulfstream — he won the Holy Bull and Florida Derby here — and he’s now moved up my list and becomes a viable win contender.