Pigskins and Ponies: Road Underdogs, Pennsylvania Derby Day Pick 3

Gambling
Eclipse Sportswire

If you like betting both football and horse racing, you've come to the right place!

Each week in Pigskins and Ponies you'll find analysis and key football bets from Payne Insider and Todd Fuhrman plus racing picks from Jose Contreras.

Professional bettor Payne Insider and former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman are founders of Bet the Board, a cutting edge sports betting company focused on written and digital content. You can listen to Bet The Board podcast every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday during football season on iTunes and Soundcloud.

Handicapper Jose Contreras is an analyst for horse racing network TVG and a regular contributor to America's Best Racing.

Get this week's picks below, and be sure to check back for new selections each week. Happy betting!


Pigskins

Colorado +8.5 (-110) @ Arizona State:

Colorado is coming off of a tight loss to Air Force, although the game wasn’t nearly as close as the scoreboard indicated. Arizona State scored a late TD to take a 10-7 victory over the Michigan State Spartans in the upset of the week. With those two results happening the same day, we’ve seen some inflation in this number. QB Steven Montez and the Buffaloes have talked about being humbled this past week, and that they look forward to getting back out there. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils and freshman QB Jayden Daniels are riding high on their huge win. Not only is this a decent spot for Buffs, but the number is too high. Colorado +8.5 to the window.

California @ Ole Miss ML (-125):

Cal opened a 1.5-point favorite before professional money came in on the Rebels. It’s a tough travel spot for the Bears, as they trek across country for an early start time (noon ET). Cal is 3-0 with the defense leading the way as expected, holding all three opponents under 20 points. The concern here is the offense, as they’ve only mustered 4.3 yards per play, with a -0.10 yards-per-play margin. Expect Mississippi to contain this offense, as the Rebels themselves have only allowed 4.7 yards per play. This is a decent matchup for Ole Miss, and an even better spot. Take the ML in a low-scoring, field-goal type game.

Denver +8 @ Green Bay:

Green Bay has started 2-0 straight up and against the spread despite struggling mightily on offense once Head Coach Matt LaFleur’s script wears off. The Packers are 27th in rushing success rate and 22nd in passing. Now Vic Fangio comes to town squaring off against another opponent he is very familiar with in Aaron Rodgers. Denver is coming off of a TOUGH loss in the final seconds at the hands of a Bears kicker (go figure), and this game feels as though it may be the “last stand” for a successful season. With Denver having a chance at being efficient on the ground offensively, +8 feels a touch too high.

Detroit @ Philadelphia Under 23.5 FIRST HALF:   

When looking at this matchup, and the total in particular, we’ve seen drastic movement on the full-game under, as Eagles injuries continue to pile up. With no DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert, or Alshon Jeffery, expect Philadelphia to show more of their run game to start. Detroit has been very good against the pass thus far, and so these injuries are even more impactful for this game. On the other side of the ball, this Eagles defense has lost Malik Jackson as well as Timmy Jernigan, so expect Detroit to establish the run early. We agree with the full-total move, and so we’ll bite on this 1st-half under as well.

Pittsburgh +7 (-115) @ San Francisco 

The look-ahead line was San Francisco -1 as mentioned on Bet the Board, and after Sunday’s results, we’ve seen this number tick out to as high as 7 before Steelers money started to show. The question we have to ask here; is the drop off from Big Ben to Mason Rudolph worth six points numerically and even more value wise? At the current point, we’d say no. Add in the fact that the Steelers brought in much needed assistance for their secondary with former Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. That move immediately signals confidence to the team that Mason Rudolph can turn things around after a 0-2 start. As much as we like the 49ers this year, this number is inflated. They’ve been on the East Coast for two weeks now; there could be some family distractions as well. Grab +7 (-115/-120) with Pittsburgh.

Best Bet: [354] Ole Miss Money Line (-125)


Ponies

For this series, I will be looking for one key horse to single in a Pick 3 in hopes of cashing a profitable exotic wager. The budget will be in the $20 range and I will keep track of ROI each week. This week’s key horse:

Saturday, Sept. 21

Parx Racing, Race 9, Grade 2 Gallant Bob Stakes, 4:34 p.m. ET

#7 King Jack: He stretched out to a mile for the first time in his most recent start at Del Mar and could only finish second best to the sharp Improbable, who’s one of the favorites later on the card for the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. I like that he’s cutting back to a sprint distance. He won his debut impressively at this distance against Morning Snow, who returned to win by eight lengths in his next start. His sire was a Grade 1-winning sprinter.

$1 Pick-3 ticket:

Race 9: 7

Race 10: 1,3,8,10,11

Race 11: 2,4,5,6

Total: $20

Total Wagered: $80

Total Returned: $0

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